915 Keen Rd #915 · Hillcrest Heights, FL 33843

$204,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · Manufactured · 121 Days on market

Built 2002 0.94 ac lot ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. A rare opportunity to own land, privacy, and near lake convenience in the charming town of Frostproof, “The Friendly City. ” Ideally located on a quiet cul-de-sac just 2 minutes from the marina with access to Little Crooked Lake, this property offers the perfect setting for relaxed Florida living surrounded by nature. Situated on an expansive 0.94-acre homesite, the property features mature natural landscaping including mango bushes, Meyer lemon trees, and Brazilian cherry, creating a peaceful retreat. A 12’ x 24’ hurricane rated SmithBuilt shed provides excellent storage or workshop flexibility, while the 15’ x 21’

Key facts

• 0.94-acre lot
• Cul-de-sac street
• Hurricane-proof shed

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• CUL-DE-SAC STREET
• 0.94-ACRE LOT
• HURRICANE-PROOF SHED
• GROUND-ANCHORED CARPORT
• FRUIT AND SPECIALTY TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Zoned RC; Located on Little Crooked Lake with a lake view; Approximately 0.94 acre lot (about 1/2 to less than 1 acre); Fruit trees and landscaped trees on property; Other structures include workshop; Cul-de-sac location; directions: from US-27 turn east onto SR-630 (E Wall St), continue approx. 3 miles, turn right onto Keen Rd and follow to the cul-de-sac; property at the end of the street
• HOA & community: Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; North facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Porch (screened); Patio/other covered area; Balcony; Outdoor storage; Wire fencing; Near marina; Street dead-end; Paved driveway/road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#438 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frostproof Middle/Senior High (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 1,150 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 437 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,350 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.13%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,898
• Equity at exit: $52,736

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-11,361
• Equity at exit: $58,200

Cash invested: $57,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33843

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 437
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,604 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $183,303

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-8	-5% $-79	+0% $-150	+5% $-221	+10% $-292
Rent	-10% $-277	-5% $-213	+0% $-150	+5% $-87	+10% $-23
Rate	-1.0pp $-47	-0.5pp $-98	base $-150	+0.5pp $-203	+1.0pp $-257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,248
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   price $204,990
3. 2026-03-06
   price $214,990
4. 2026-02-25
   price $234,990
5. 2026-02-10
   price $239,990
6. 2026-01-13
   listed $245,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,539
• − Management: −$1,539
• − Depreciation: −$5,963
• Taxable loss: −$5,382
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,292
• After-tax cash flow: $-507/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hillcrest Heights

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #7838

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,072

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Current HPI: 311.1519
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-16.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $204,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $214,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $234,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $239,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid