2859 Orange St · Marianna, FL 32448

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1928 0.34 ac lot Est $136k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

?? Fully Renovated 3BR Home | Move-In Ready | USDA 100% Financing Available for Qualified Buyers! Completely renovated and move-in ready! This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1-bath home combines classic charm with modern upgrades throughout. Recent improvements include a new HVAC system, updated kitchen, remodeled bathroom, new flooring, fresh paint, updated fixtures, and more. Step onto the inviting front porch and into a bright, welcoming interior featuring spacious living areas and stylish finishes. The functional floor plan offers three bedrooms, making it an excellent option for first-time homebuyers, families, or anyone looking for affordable, turnkey living. Conveniently located i

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Brand new bathroom
• Renovated kitchen

Tags

• FULL REMODEL
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• BRAND NEW BATHROOM
• VINYL FLOORING
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is residential, zoned RES; Unfurnished; No CDD or homestead indicated
• HOA & community: Street lights in community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt road access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Cable available; Water and sewer available and connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Faces east
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on lot of approximately 0.34 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Porch; Exterior lighting; Trees and landscaped yard; Paved access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.3% in Marianna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson (rural): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #39 of 73 in FL (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 163 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $120k implies a 515% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.10%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,188
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4157 Old Cottondale Rd	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,086 (-7%)	8mo	$35,000	$32	53
2836 Kenny St	0.11mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,006 (-14%)	21mo	$44,000	$44	49
4362 Dial St	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,174 (+1%)	20mo	$103,000	$88	49
4383 Clinton St	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,229 (+6%)	12mo	$181,500	$148	48
4369 Milner St	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,213 (+4%)	10mo	$169,999	$140	46
2925 Harley Dr	0.38mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,012 (-13%)	12mo	$130,000	$128	44
4315 Wilton St	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,066 (-8%)	16mo	$125,000	$117	44
2967 Russ St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,223 (+5%)	20mo	$75,000	$61	39
2849 Miltonia Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-13%)	23mo	$101,000	$100	34
3001 6th St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,096 (-6%)	21mo	$142,000	$130	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-8,600
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $6,364
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32448

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,147 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $674/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $931

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    listed $120,000 Active
17. 2026-03-06
    historical
18. 2026-01-12
    price $120,000
19. 2026-01-12
    status Active
20. 2026-01-08
    historical
21. 2025-12-07
    price $125,000
22. 2025-10-07
    price $130,000
23. 2025-07-08
    listed $105,000 Active
24. 2025-05-12
    historical
25. 2024-11-18
    listed $142,000 Active
26. 2015-07-08
    soldstatus $19,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $674 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$322/yr (+$27/mo · 47.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,767
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$674
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,101
• − Management: −$1,101
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $78
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$19
• After-tax cash flow: $2,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson
• NCES district ID: 1200960
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,824
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3358
• State rank: #39 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marianna

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11318

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marianna, FL
• Population (ZIP): 8,041

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,095 people
• By 2030: 44,432 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 41,077 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 37,587 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 28,921 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 19,332 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 41% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.1) · D 26.7% · R 72.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.1 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.86%
• Current HPI: 140.1373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+515.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-08 Listed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-18 Listed $142,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $674 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.