1432 Florence Ln · Celina, TX 75009

$399,790

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,238 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2025 4,200 sqft lot $179/sqft · 7% below area Est $410k · at est. $71/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Diamond home shines with originality! The exterior of the home serves to be just as beautiful as the interior with its unique designs and beautiful columns structuring the home. The large front porch of the Diamond plan is perfect for relaxing and coffee-sipping. This two-story home is a flexible, open-concept floor plan boasting four bedrooms with two and a half full bathrooms for your convenience. Upon entry, you're greeted by the spacious family room combined with the formal dining area. This layout is perfect for entertaining your family and friends. Overlooking the dining area is the integrated kitchen and breakfast area, making this an ideal space for a family of any size! The kitchen comes equipped with a beautiful kitchen island and counters with granite countertops, designer light fixtures, industry-leading appliances, and a sizable walk-in pantry! With this conducive layout, you can remain part of the conversation, and never miss out on any fun with your visitors! Adjacent to the breakfast area is the convenient downstairs powder room and an extra closet for added storage space. Next to the breakfast area lies your large walk-in utility with your master bedroom just across the room. Retreat to your master bedroom to be met with your master bathroom including cultured marble countertops with double vanities, an elegant super shower, and a huge walk-in closet. With the Diamond floor plan, you have the option to relax in your backyard with an optional covered. ..

Key facts

• Upgraded countertops
• Slow close cabinets
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• UPGRADED COUNTERTOPS
• SLOW CLOSE CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Easements for electric, natural gas, telephone and utilities
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (La Terra); Annual HOA fee; Association provides full use of facilities; HOA managed by Neighborhood Management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener and single double door; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; No carport spaces
• Utilities: MUD water service; Electricity connected (Co-op Electric); Natural gas available; Telephone service available; Municipal utility district; Efficient hot water distribution and low-flow fixtures
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story home; Located in the La Terra planned development; Builder listing / new construction (Year built 2025)
• Construction: Brick and wood construction; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Year built 2025
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Interior lot; Grassed yard; Irrigation equipment; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen with pantry; Solid surface (non-natural) countertops; Water line to refrigerator; Gas range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with dual sinks, ensuite bath, separate shower and vanities, and walk-in closet; Three additional bedrooms on upper level (one with walk-in closet; one with ensuite bath)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bath; Primary bath with dual sinks, linen closet and separate vanities
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; ENERGY STAR qualified equipment
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Granite counters; High-speed internet available; Walk-in closets; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality; 11 total rooms; One living area; One dining area; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on main level; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $374k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2927 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $301,901 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $409,960
• List price: $399,790
• Delta: -2.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1428 Florence Ln	0.01mi	4/3.0	2,196 (-2%)	1mo	$404,950	$184	94
1436 Bramante	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,193 (-2%)	1mo	$399,950	$182	91
1424 Florence Ln	0.02mi	4/3.0	2,330 (+4%)	1mo	$414,970	$178	90
1409 Bramante St	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,144 (-4%)	1mo	$349,990	$163	89
1425 Marcella Ln	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,144 (-4%)	1mo	$350,000	$163	88
1501 Buchanan Way	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,229 (-0%)	2mo	$365,999	$164	78
1737 Sugar Maple Mews	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,231 (-0%)	2mo	$417,635	$187	74
1413 Buchanan Way	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-14%)	1mo	$336,999	$175	56
2401 Greenbelt Rd	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,083 (-7%)	1mo	$352,999	$169	54
1512 Canter St	0.53mi	4/3.5	2,501 (+12%)	1mo	$499,000	$200	51
2417 Lost Creek Ln	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,083 (-7%)	2mo	$329,399	$158	50
2409 Greenbelt Rd	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-14%)	2mo	$324,999	$169	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-82,901
• Equity at exit: $59,610

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-118,591
• Equity at exit: $34,567

Cash invested: $111,941 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2927
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,019 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,339/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,201

Max offer price $374,348

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $-31	+0% $-144	+5% $-257	+10% $-370
Rent	-10% $-383	-5% $-263	+0% $-144	+5% $-25	+10% $94
Rate	-1.0pp $57	-0.5pp $-42	base $-144	+0.5pp $-248	+1.0pp $-353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,948
• Closing costs: $11,994
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1424 Bettolo Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2706	$3,450	$1.27	8d	1	0.09mi
2212 W J Fred Smith Pkwy Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$3,500	$2.20	0d	1	0.41mi
1712 Goodnight Trl Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2231	$2,450	$1.10	0d	1	0.47mi
2417 Blackwell St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2098	$3,300	$1.57	0d	1	1.15mi
1404 Pintail Pl Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1626	$2,500	$1.54	0d	1	1.22mi
3100 Arthurdale St Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	2184	$2,399	$1.10	45d	1	1.30mi
401 Osprey Ln Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2833	$3,150	$1.11	45d	1	1.33mi
2020 Beeflower St Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2032	$2,399	$1.18	45d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,790 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,790 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,790 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on marketlisting id $399,790 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,790 Active 195 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,790 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,790 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,790 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,790 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,790 Active 184 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,790 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,790 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,790 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,790 Active 180 DOM
15. 2025-12-12
    price $399,790 1498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1498 chars)

    The Diamond home shines with originality! The exterior of the home serves to be just as beautiful as the interior with its unique designs and beautiful columns structuring the home. The large front porch of the Diamond plan is perfect for relaxing and coffee-sipping. This two-story home is a flexible, open-concept floor plan boasting four bedrooms with two and a half full bathrooms for your convenience. Upon entry, you're greeted by the spacious family room combined with the formal dining area. This layout is perfect for entertaining your family and friends. Overlooking the dining area is the integrated kitchen and breakfast area, making this an ideal space for a family of any size! The kitchen comes equipped with a beautiful kitchen island and counters with granite countertops, designer light fixtures, industry-leading appliances, and a sizable walk-in pantry! With this conducive layout, you can remain part of the conversation, and never miss out on any fun with your visitors! Adjacent to the breakfast area is the convenient downstairs powder room and an extra closet for added storage space. Next to the breakfast area lies your large walk-in utility with your master bedroom just across the room. Retreat to your master bedroom to be met with your master bathroom including cultured marble countertops with double vanities, an elegant super shower, and a huge walk-in closet. With the Diamond floor plan, you have the option to relax in your backyard with an optional covered. ..

16. 2025-12-02
    listed $445,790 Active 1498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1498 chars)

    The Diamond home shines with originality! The exterior of the home serves to be just as beautiful as the interior with its unique designs and beautiful columns structuring the home. The large front porch of the Diamond plan is perfect for relaxing and coffee-sipping. This two-story home is a flexible, open-concept floor plan boasting four bedrooms with two and a half full bathrooms for your convenience. Upon entry, you're greeted by the spacious family room combined with the formal dining area. This layout is perfect for entertaining your family and friends. Overlooking the dining area is the integrated kitchen and breakfast area, making this an ideal space for a family of any size! The kitchen comes equipped with a beautiful kitchen island and counters with granite countertops, designer light fixtures, industry-leading appliances, and a sizable walk-in pantry! With this conducive layout, you can remain part of the conversation, and never miss out on any fun with your visitors! Adjacent to the breakfast area is the convenient downstairs powder room and an extra closet for added storage space. Next to the breakfast area lies your large walk-in utility with your master bedroom just across the room. Retreat to your master bedroom to be met with your master bathroom including cultured marble countertops with double vanities, an elegant super shower, and a huge walk-in closet. With the Diamond floor plan, you have the option to relax in your backyard with an optional covered. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,339 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,316 · $610/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,977/yr (+$415/mo · 212.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,394
• − Property taxes: −$2,339
• − Insurance: −$1,999
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,898
• − Management: −$2,898
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$11,630
• Taxable loss: −$8,783
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,108
• After-tax cash flow: $380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $399,790 NTREIS
• 2026-06-15 Listed $408,030 NTREIS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $399,790 Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Listed $445,790 Zillow

Property tax history

+57.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,339 · +57.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.