427 W 18th St · Erie, PA 16502

$50,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,688 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1872 4,421 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD CASE #442-274872. ALL PROPERTIES SOLD "AS-IS" WITHOUT ANY GUARANTEE OR WARRANTY BY SELLER. COOPERATING BROKERS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 3% COMMISSION, FHA FINANCING - INSURED ESCROW, PLEASE VISIT www. hudhomestore.com FOR BIDDING INFORMATION.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Flat fenced backyard
• Mixed zoning area

Tags

• FULL INTERIOR RENOVATION
• NEW FULLY FUNCTIONAL FURNACE
• NEWER ROOF
• FLAT FENCED BACKYARD
• MIXED ZONING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (parking accessed from rear alley via Chestnut or Walnut Street)
• Security:
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Front porch; Asphalt roof; Lot is roughly 34 x 130 (approximately 0.1015 acres); Lot zoning: R-1

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9 (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window AC unit(s)
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Other flooring
• Laundry & utility:

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $733 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 23.9% vs local median 5.4% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pfeiffer-Burleigh Sch (math 7% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,396 of 1,518 statewide, top 92%, 565 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Pa Collegiate Academy (math 82%, 753 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $50k implies a 245% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1872 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $50,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1872 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.82%
• DSCR: 3.79
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,032
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
422 W 9th St	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,794 (+4%)	16mo	$265,000	$95	46
922 Myrtle St	0.61mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,810 (+4%)	13mo	$179,900	$64	46
1627 Myrtle St	0.23mi	5/1.0 (+1)	2,323 (-14%)	14mo	$125,000	$54	42
2716 Peach St	0.73mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,400 (-11%)	23mo	$147,500	$61	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $38,552
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.68×
• Total profit: $93,587
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16502

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $733

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $767	-5% $750	+0% $733	+5% $716	+10% $698
Rent	-10% $625	-5% $679	+0% $733	+5% $787	+10% $841
Rate	-1.0pp $758	-0.5pp $746	base $733	+0.5pp $720	+1.0pp $707

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
538 W 8th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,650	$0.82	45d	1	0.74mi
729 W 9th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1782	$3,000	$1.68	45d	1	0.76mi
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	45d	1	0.98mi
2702 Raspberry St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,200	$0.60	45d	1	0.99mi
126 W 38th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1850	$4,000	$2.16	45d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on marketlisting id $50,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $50,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   price $50,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    remarks 679-char remark
11. 2026-06-10
    listed $59,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,310
• − Management: −$1,310
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $8,504
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,041
• After-tax cash flow: $6,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,995
• Household income: $38,566
• Rent vs Own: 60.6% rent · 39.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1044.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.73%
• Current HPI: 211.4408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+130.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $59,900 GEBOR
• 2025-12-18 Listed $59,900 GEBOR
• 2017-11-29 Sold (MLS) $14,500 GEBOR
• 2017-04-30 Listed $19,600 GEBOR
• 2003-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $25,990 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,665 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.