10950 Haws Ln · Jacksonville, FL 32218

$305,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2019 Est $282k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The home has three (3) bedrooms and two (2) bathrooms with an attached two car garage; spacious kitchen with an electric stovetop/oven, microwave, refrigerator, and dishwasher; a laundry room with washer/dryer included; and a screened in lanai in the back of home.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Electric stovetop
• Screened in lanai

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• ELECTRIC STOVETOP
• SCREENED IN LANAI

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 2019
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,548
• Exterior features: Located in the Copper Hill subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dinsmore Elementary School (math 61% / reading 47%, grade C, #936 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 595 students, 53% FRL); Highlands Middle School (math 31% / reading 21%, grade F, #506 of 571 statewide, top 89%, 697 students, 73% FRL); Jean Ribault High School (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #533 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,385 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 735 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,540 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.18%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,736
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10846 Ventnor Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,548 (0%)	4mo	$296,000	$191	93
5322 Kellar Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,548 (0%)	14mo	$295,000	$191	77
5633 Kellar Cir	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,737 (+12%)	4mo	$285,000	$164	66
5361 Preston Bentley Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,737 (+12%)	11mo	$330,000	$190	63
10977 Ventnor Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,737 (+12%)	20mo	$290,000	$167	59
4396 Marsh Hawk Dr S	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+4%)	9mo	$200,000	$124	58
5824 Miners Point Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,652 (+7%)	16mo	$300,000	$182	53
11022 Woodelm Dr W	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+6%)	14mo	$244,000	$149	45
10326 Marsh Hawk Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-9%)	20mo	$254,500	$180	40
6015 Woodelm Dr N	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,719 (+11%)	22mo	$330,000	$192	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-61,803
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-87,910
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32218

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 735
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,385 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,901/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,492

Max offer price $290,191

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $2	+0% $-84	+5% $-170	+10% $-256
Rent	-10% $-272	-5% $-178	+0% $-84	+5% $10	+10% $105
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $-6	base $-84	+0.5pp $-163	+1.0pp $-243

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10815 Ventnor Ave Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	2006	$2,950	$1.47	25d	1	0.10mi
10815 Ventnor Ave Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	2028	$2,750	$1.36	6d	1	0.10mi
5689 Kellar Cir Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1544	$2,371	$1.54	3d	1	0.26mi
10871 Copper Creek Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,145	$1.47	16d	1	0.47mi
4334 Woodley Creek Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1634	$2,100	$1.29	3d	1	0.57mi
10373 Marsh Hawk Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,020	$1.08	4d	1	0.61mi
10881 Key Coral Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1304	$1,695	$1.30	25d	1	0.76mi
5008 Bramante Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1866	$2,175	$1.17	9d	1	0.89mi
5190 Johnson Lake Ct Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	2060	$2,275	$1.10	6d	1	0.94mi
11075 Key Coral Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1470	$1,423	$0.97	4d	1	0.94mi
10838 Naples Ct S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,755	$1.37	25d	1	1.01mi
4212 Pointe Haven Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1054	$1,800	$1.71	25d	1	1.05mi
4948 Big Pine Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	2184	$2,185	$1.00	15d	1	1.08mi
4819 Arrowsmith Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,500	$1.17	16d	1	1.26mi
11718 Robert Masters Blvd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,212	$1.31	3d	42	1.45mi
9504 Evesham Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1966	$1,645	$0.84	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $305,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 264-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $305,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,901 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,901 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$2,901
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,290
• − Management: −$2,290
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$6,339
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,521
• After-tax cash flow: $515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 72,905
• Household income: $69,638
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2289.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.73%
• Current HPI: 262.2329
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.40%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $305,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+25.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,901 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.