159 Cross Creek Dr · Hernando, MS 38632

$329,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,045 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1999 0.31 ac lot Est $323k · at est. $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Hernando listing in Gated Community of Cross Creek! Nice one story 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath home set on large corner fenced lot. House is close to downtown Hernando and square and has new HVAC unit, new water heater, full irrigation system, new kitchen stainless steel appliances, and permanent stairs to large walk-in attic. Subdivision is gated and has nice lake in it. Also included, formal dining room, built in book shelves in great room, laundry room w sink, covered back porch with nice landscaping and covered front porch and 1/2 bath off of kitchen. Hard to find price in Hernando so hurry today! House qualifies for USDA 100% financing too!

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Formal dining room
• Cozy family room

Tags

• SPACIOUS FRONT PORCH
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• COZY FAMILY ROOM
• CUSTOM BUILT HOME

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $700; Gated community; Lake access

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage faces side; Concrete parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Fiber to the house; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence (house); One level; Slab foundation; Brick construction; Asphalt shingle roof
• Construction: Brick exterior; Slab foundation; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Rain gutters; Privacy wood fencing (full); Sprinklers in front; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Main level); Additional bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Combination flooring; Concrete; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Other heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Multiple cooling units
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closets; Double vanity; Deadbolt locks; Gas-log fireplace in the great room; 11 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#44 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hernando Elem (779 students, 100% FRL); Hernando Middle School (math 75% / reading 57%, grade A-, #2 of 179 statewide, top 1%, 1,150 students, 100% FRL); Hernando High School (math 69% / reading 62%, grade B, #2 of 197 statewide, top 1%, 1,419 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 45% district-wide (+21 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Desoto County School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 403 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,735 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.44%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $323,110
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 N Parkway St	0.29mi	3/2.0	2,110 (+3%)	2mo	$319,900	$152	78
1231 Cross Creek Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	2,255 (+10%)	3mo	$306,200	$136	74
509 Howell Way	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,979 (-3%)	2mo	$336,000	$170	72
1123 Tara Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,100 (+3%)	3mo	$309,900	$148	71
1123 Peggy Cv	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,979 (-3%)	2mo	$349,900	$177	67
521 Abey Ln	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,150 (+5%)	2mo	$335,500	$156	66
148 Forked Creek Pkwy	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,074 (+1%)	2mo	$324,900	$157	65
67 E Shady Lane Cv	0.60mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,124 (+4%)	0mo	$359,900	$169	58
815 Saddle Creek Cv	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,214 (+8%)	0mo	$349,900	$158	54
124 E Pebble Creek Cv	0.53mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,211 (+8%)	2mo	$349,900	$158	53
445 Augusta Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,247 (+10%)	1mo	$345,000	$154	45
1070 W Green T Lk	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,300 (+12%)	1mo	$425,000	$185	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-68,006
• Equity at exit: $49,189

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-97,289
• Equity at exit: $28,524

Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38632

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 403
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,537 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,276/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,677

Max offer price $310,347

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $76	-5% $-17	+0% $-111	+5% $-204	+10% $-297
Rent	-10% $-311	-5% $-211	+0% $-111	+5% $-10	+10% $90
Rate	-1.0pp $55	-0.5pp $-27	base $-111	+0.5pp $-196	+1.0pp $-283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,475
• Closing costs: $9,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1324 Biloxi St Hernando, MS	3.0	2.0	1594	$1,950	$1.22	24d	1	0.18mi
52 Forked Creek Pkwy Hernando, MS	4.0	2.0	2300	$2,340	$1.02	44d	1	0.55mi
89 Shady Lane Cv E Hernando, MS	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,650	$1.06	12d	1	0.59mi
1670 Timber Creek Dr Hernando, MS	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,945	$1.16	44d	1	0.61mi
2159 Timberlane St Hernando, MS	4.0	2.5	2150	$4,500	$2.09	5d	1	0.94mi
814 Byhalia Rd Hernando, MS	4.0	3.0	2531	$2,400	$0.95	3d	1	1.00mi
237 US-51 Hernando, MS	4.0	4.0	2986	$3,400	$1.14	44d	1	1.11mi
2441 Memphis St Hernando, MS	2.0	2.5	1520	$2,200	$1.45	2d	1	1.15mi
947 Clubhouse Dr Hernando, MS	4.0	2.0	1713	$2,495	$1.46	44d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingsecurity

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $329,900 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,900 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $329,900 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $329,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $329,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $329,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $329,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $329,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-05-21
   listed $329,900 Active
10. 2019-11-27
    soldstatus
11. 2019-11-25
    soldstatus 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    New Hernando listing in Gated Community of Cross Creek! Nice one story 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath home set on large corner fenced lot. House is close to downtown Hernando and square and has new HVAC unit, new water heater, full irrigation system, new kitchen stainless steel appliances, and permanent stairs to large walk-in attic. Subdivision is gated and has nice lake in it. Also included, formal dining room, built in book shelves in great room, laundry room w sink, covered back porch with nice landscaping and covered front porch and 1/2 bath off of kitchen. Hard to find price in Hernando so hurry today! House qualifies for USDA 100% financing too!

12. 2019-10-24
    listed $219,900 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    New Hernando listing in Gated Community of Cross Creek! Nice one story 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath home set on large corner fenced lot. House is close to downtown Hernando and square and has new HVAC unit, new water heater, full irrigation system, new kitchen stainless steel appliances, and permanent stairs to large walk-in attic. Subdivision is gated and has nice lake in it. Also included, formal dining room, built in book shelves in great room, laundry room w sink, covered back porch with nice landscaping and covered front porch and 1/2 bath off of kitchen. Hard to find price in Hernando so hurry today! House qualifies for USDA 100% financing too!

13. 1998-11-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,276 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,606 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: +$330/yr (+$27/mo · 14.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,480
• − Property taxes: −$2,276
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,436
• − Management: −$2,436
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$9,597
• Taxable loss: −$7,122
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,709
• After-tax cash flow: $381/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 31,374
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 31,374
• Household income: $93,583
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 24.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.49%
• Current HPI: 176.8843
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.43%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $329,900 MLSU
• 2019-11-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-11-25 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2019-10-24 Listed $219,900 MLSU
• 1998-11-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,276 · +16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.