15 Arbor St · Waite Park, MN 56301

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Manufactured · 212 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just 13 minutes from St. Cloud, this beautifully maintained and affordable home offers the perfect mix of comfort, convenience, and community living. Located in Bel Clare Estates, you'll enjoy fantastic amenities including a basketball court, pet-friendly walking areas, a welcoming playground, and a storm shelter for added peace of mind. Inside, the open kitchen and living areas are perfect for gatherings, with a primary suite featuring a walk-in closet and private bath, plus two additional bedrooms and another full bath on the opposite side for privacy. With lot rent at just $795/month, including water, sewer, garbage, and recycling. This home delivers incredible value in a prime location near shopping, dining, and Quarry Park. Come see it today!

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Basketball court
• Storm shelter

Tags

• BASKETBALL COURT
• PET-FRIENDLY WALKING AREAS
• WELCOMING PLAYGROUND
• STORM SHELTER
• OPEN KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.2% in Waite Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#83 in MN, #1,944 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, schools F.
• St. Cloud Public School District (urban): math 27% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #264 of 301 in MN (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 661 units permitted in Stearns County in 2024 (291 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stearns County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.61%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,215
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $36,918
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56301

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $445	-5% $405	+0% $365	+5% $326	+10% $286
Rent	-10% $249	-5% $307	+0% $365	+5% $423	+10% $481
Rate	-1.0pp $423	-0.5pp $395	base $365	+0.5pp $335	+1.0pp $305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
57 Arbor St Unit 57AR St Cloud, MN	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,259	$1.19	44d	1	0.04mi
94 Belmar St Unit 94BEL St Cloud, MN	3.0	2.0	1088	$1,449	$1.33	44d	1	0.09mi
47 Claremont St Unit 47CMT St Cloud, MN	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,439	$1.18	44d	1	0.12mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 212 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 211 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 210 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 209 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 208 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 205 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 201 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 200 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 196 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 194 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 193 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 192 DOM
17. 2026-02-13
    price $115,000 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    Just 13 minutes from St. Cloud, this beautifully maintained and affordable home offers the perfect mix of comfort, convenience, and community living. Located in Bel Clare Estates, you'll enjoy fantastic amenities including a basketball court, pet-friendly walking areas, a welcoming playground, and a storm shelter for added peace of mind. Inside, the open kitchen and living areas are perfect for gatherings, with a primary suite featuring a walk-in closet and private bath, plus two additional bedrooms and another full bath on the opposite side for privacy. With lot rent at just $795/month, including water, sewer, garbage, and recycling. This home delivers incredible value in a prime location near shopping, dining, and Quarry Park. Come see it today!

18. 2025-11-19
    listed $120,000 Active 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    Just 13 minutes from St. Cloud, this beautifully maintained and affordable home offers the perfect mix of comfort, convenience, and community living. Located in Bel Clare Estates, you'll enjoy fantastic amenities including a basketball court, pet-friendly walking areas, a welcoming playground, and a storm shelter for added peace of mind. Inside, the open kitchen and living areas are perfect for gatherings, with a primary suite featuring a walk-in closet and private bath, plus two additional bedrooms and another full bath on the opposite side for privacy. With lot rent at just $795/month, including water, sewer, garbage, and recycling. This home delivers incredible value in a prime location near shopping, dining, and Quarry Park. Come see it today!

19. 2025-11-12
    historical
20. 2025-10-13
    price $123,500
21. 2025-08-16
    listed $125,000 Active
22. 2025-08-08
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,410
• − Management: −$1,410
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,714
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$651
• After-tax cash flow: $3,732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home in Bel Clare Estates offers a good condition with modern updates and a prime location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both painting — refreshes interior and exterior
• Both new flooring — enhances aesthetics and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting — refreshes interior and exterior ↑
• Both new flooring — enhances aesthetics and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Cloud Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733510
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,638
• Composite: 27.91/100
• National rank: #6866
• State rank: #264 of 301 in MN

Livability — Waite Park

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #1944

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waite Park, MN
• County: Stearns County · 90,226 people
• City population: 7,756
• Metro: St. Cloud, MN
• Population (ZIP): 35,580
• Household income: $73,142
• Rent vs Own: 49.1% rent · 50.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1831.0

Population outlook (Stearns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,629 people
• By 2030: 166,495 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 172,661 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 177,480 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 192,907 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 206,274 · +26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stearns

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.8) · D 35.7% · R 62.5% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.8 2020: R+22.5 2016: R+27.9 2012: R+12.1 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 148.6882
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: St. Cloud, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $115,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-19 Listed $120,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $123,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-16 Listed $125,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-08 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid