188 County Road 227 · Sam Rayburn, TX 75931

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1977 0.99 ac lot $90/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy Cabin Retreat Near Lake Sam Rayburn! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac on just under 1 acre, this charming 2068 sq ft, 3BR/2BA cabin with a wood burning fireplace is the perfect escape for weekend getaways or peaceful full-time living. With no restrictions, this property offers endless possibilities, including an additional septic system and electric pole ready for a tiny home or multiple RVs. Turn it into an income-producing retreat or bring the whole crew! Inside, you'll find a warm, rustic feel with a newly added master suite addition and laundry room. Explore the multiple outbuildings perfect for storage or hobbies, including one ideal for conversion to a tiny home. Mature pine and hardwood trees and a decorative stone wall add charm and character. Located just minutes from Lake Sam Rayburn, boat ramps, Rayburn Country Resort & Golf Course, and the charming town of Jasper, this cabin truly has it all.

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Laundry room
• 0.99 acre lot

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• ADDITIONAL SEPTIC SYSTEM
• MASTER SUITE ADDITION
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-483/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 1.5% in Sam Rayburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#606 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 419 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,493 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $385,184
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -59.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,418
• Equity at exit: $55,162

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $30,421
• Equity at exit: $75,075

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75931

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 419
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,376/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,256

Max offer price $147,893

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $4	+0% $-40	+5% $-84	+10% $-128
Rent	-10% $-135	-5% $-88	+0% $-40	+5% $7	+10% $55
Rate	-1.0pp $38	-0.5pp $-1	base $-40	+0.5pp $-80	+1.0pp $-121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    status Active 929-char remark

    Show marketing remark (929 chars)

    Cozy Cabin Retreat Near Lake Sam Rayburn! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac on just under 1 acre, this charming 2068 sq ft, 3BR/2BA cabin with a wood burning fireplace is the perfect escape for weekend getaways or peaceful full-time living. With no restrictions, this property offers endless possibilities, including an additional septic system and electric pole ready for a tiny home or multiple RVs. Turn it into an income-producing retreat or bring the whole crew! Inside, you'll find a warm, rustic feel with a newly added master suite addition and laundry room. Explore the multiple outbuildings perfect for storage or hobbies, including one ideal for conversion to a tiny home. Mature pine and hardwood trees and a decorative stone wall add charm and character. Located just minutes from Lake Sam Rayburn, boat ramps, Rayburn Country Resort & Golf Course, and the charming town of Jasper, this cabin truly has it all.

18. 2026-05-12
    status Pending 929-char remark

    Show marketing remark (929 chars)

    Cozy Cabin Retreat Near Lake Sam Rayburn! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac on just under 1 acre, this charming 2068 sq ft, 3BR/2BA cabin with a wood burning fireplace is the perfect escape for weekend getaways or peaceful full-time living. With no restrictions, this property offers endless possibilities, including an additional septic system and electric pole ready for a tiny home or multiple RVs. Turn it into an income-producing retreat or bring the whole crew! Inside, you'll find a warm, rustic feel with a newly added master suite addition and laundry room. Explore the multiple outbuildings perfect for storage or hobbies, including one ideal for conversion to a tiny home. Mature pine and hardwood trees and a decorative stone wall add charm and character. Located just minutes from Lake Sam Rayburn, boat ramps, Rayburn Country Resort & Golf Course, and the charming town of Jasper, this cabin truly has it all.

19. 2026-04-22
    listed $155,000 Active 929-char remark

    Show marketing remark (929 chars)

    Cozy Cabin Retreat Near Lake Sam Rayburn! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac on just under 1 acre, this charming 2068 sq ft, 3BR/2BA cabin with a wood burning fireplace is the perfect escape for weekend getaways or peaceful full-time living. With no restrictions, this property offers endless possibilities, including an additional septic system and electric pole ready for a tiny home or multiple RVs. Turn it into an income-producing retreat or bring the whole crew! Inside, you'll find a warm, rustic feel with a newly added master suite addition and laundry room. Explore the multiple outbuildings perfect for storage or hobbies, including one ideal for conversion to a tiny home. Mature pine and hardwood trees and a decorative stone wall add charm and character. Located just minutes from Lake Sam Rayburn, boat ramps, Rayburn Country Resort & Golf Course, and the charming town of Jasper, this cabin truly has it all.

20. 2025-08-21
    soldstatus
21. 2025-08-15
    soldstatus Closed 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    Cozy Cabin Retreat Near Lake Sam Rayburn Income Potential! Tucked away in the woods on nearly an acre, this charming 2BR/1BA cabin is the perfect escape for weekend getaways or peaceful full-time living. With no restrictions, this property offers endless possibilities, including an additional septic system and electric pole ready for a mobile home or multiple RVs. Turn it into an income-producing retreat or bring the whole crew! Inside, you'll find a warm, rustic feel, and out back, a partially finished master suite addition and enclosed laundry room await your final touches. Explore the multiple outbuildings perfect for storage or hobbies. With mature plants, a fig tree, and decorative stone walls adding charm and character. Located just minutes from Lake Sam Rayburn, boat ramps, Rayburn Country golf course, and the town of Jasper, this cabin truly has it all. a private lake-area getaway, a vacation rental, or a quiet place to call home, this one has potential written all over it.

22. 2025-07-28
    status Pending 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    Cozy Cabin Retreat Near Lake Sam Rayburn Income Potential! Tucked away in the woods on nearly an acre, this charming 2BR/1BA cabin is the perfect escape for weekend getaways or peaceful full-time living. With no restrictions, this property offers endless possibilities, including an additional septic system and electric pole ready for a mobile home or multiple RVs. Turn it into an income-producing retreat or bring the whole crew! Inside, you'll find a warm, rustic feel, and out back, a partially finished master suite addition and enclosed laundry room await your final touches. Explore the multiple outbuildings perfect for storage or hobbies. With mature plants, a fig tree, and decorative stone walls adding charm and character. Located just minutes from Lake Sam Rayburn, boat ramps, Rayburn Country golf course, and the town of Jasper, this cabin truly has it all. a private lake-area getaway, a vacation rental, or a quiet place to call home, this one has potential written all over it.

23. 2025-06-24
    historical Active Under Contract 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    Cozy Cabin Retreat Near Lake Sam Rayburn Income Potential! Tucked away in the woods on nearly an acre, this charming 2BR/1BA cabin is the perfect escape for weekend getaways or peaceful full-time living. With no restrictions, this property offers endless possibilities, including an additional septic system and electric pole ready for a mobile home or multiple RVs. Turn it into an income-producing retreat or bring the whole crew! Inside, you'll find a warm, rustic feel, and out back, a partially finished master suite addition and enclosed laundry room await your final touches. Explore the multiple outbuildings perfect for storage or hobbies. With mature plants, a fig tree, and decorative stone walls adding charm and character. Located just minutes from Lake Sam Rayburn, boat ramps, Rayburn Country golf course, and the town of Jasper, this cabin truly has it all. a private lake-area getaway, a vacation rental, or a quiet place to call home, this one has potential written all over it.

24. 2025-06-15
    status Pending, Continue to Show 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    Cozy Cabin Retreat Near Lake Sam Rayburn Income Potential! Tucked away in the woods on nearly an acre, this charming 2BR/1BA cabin is the perfect escape for weekend getaways or peaceful full-time living. With no restrictions, this property offers endless possibilities, including an additional septic system and electric pole ready for a mobile home or multiple RVs. Turn it into an income-producing retreat or bring the whole crew! Inside, you'll find a warm, rustic feel, and out back, a partially finished master suite addition and enclosed laundry room await your final touches. Explore the multiple outbuildings perfect for storage or hobbies. With mature plants, a fig tree, and decorative stone walls adding charm and character. Located just minutes from Lake Sam Rayburn, boat ramps, Rayburn Country golf course, and the town of Jasper, this cabin truly has it all. a private lake-area getaway, a vacation rental, or a quiet place to call home, this one has potential written all over it.

25. 2025-06-06
    listed $92,500 Active 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    Cozy Cabin Retreat Near Lake Sam Rayburn Income Potential! Tucked away in the woods on nearly an acre, this charming 2BR/1BA cabin is the perfect escape for weekend getaways or peaceful full-time living. With no restrictions, this property offers endless possibilities, including an additional septic system and electric pole ready for a mobile home or multiple RVs. Turn it into an income-producing retreat or bring the whole crew! Inside, you'll find a warm, rustic feel, and out back, a partially finished master suite addition and enclosed laundry room await your final touches. Explore the multiple outbuildings perfect for storage or hobbies. With mature plants, a fig tree, and decorative stone walls adding charm and character. Located just minutes from Lake Sam Rayburn, boat ramps, Rayburn Country golf course, and the town of Jasper, this cabin truly has it all. a private lake-area getaway, a vacation rental, or a quiet place to call home, this one has potential written all over it.

26. 2019-10-02
    historical
27. 2019-03-08
    listed $74,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,376 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,460/yr (+$122/mo · 106.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,459
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,376
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,157
• − Management: −$1,157
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$3,197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$767
• After-tax cash flow: $285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824630
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,286
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8684
• State rank: #734 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sam Rayburn

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #606
• US rank: #11495

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,209

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Current HPI: 231.9835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+108.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $155,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-08-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-08-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-07-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-06-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $92,500 HARMLS
• 2019-10-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-03-08 Listed $74,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,376 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.