2353 State Rt. 209 · Olive Hill, KY 41164

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 191 Days on market

Built 1993 1.00 ac lot $111/sqft · 133% above area Est $62k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

location. location/ location, 1993 16 x 70 singlewide with a 10 x 20 room on the back. great place for a new home just mins. from carter caves state park. and i-64 property has a 2 car garage (needs work) and a small outbuilding on the property note the title for the trailer has not been located yet

Key facts

• 10 x 20 room
• 2 car garage
• Small outbuilding

Tags

• 10 X 20 ROOM
• 2 CAR GARAGE
• SMALL OUTBUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($822 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.8% in Olive Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#160 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools D.
• Carter County (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #70 of 165 in KY (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $782 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $80k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.24%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $62,000
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: 28.87%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $12,341
• Equity at exit: $27,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $39,630
• Equity at exit: $36,057

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41164

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $822 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $300/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $604

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   location. location/ location, 1993 16 x 70 singlewide with a 10 x 20 room on the back. great place for a new home just mins. from carter caves state park. and i-64 property has a 2 car garage (needs work) and a small outbuilding on the property note the title for the trailer has not been located yet

2. 2026-04-09
   price $79,900 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   location. location/ location, 1993 16 x 70 singlewide with a 10 x 20 room on the back. great place for a new home just mins. from carter caves state park. and i-64 property has a 2 car garage (needs work) and a small outbuilding on the property note the title for the trailer has not been located yet

3. 2025-11-06
   listed $94,900 Active 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   location. location/ location, 1993 16 x 70 singlewide with a 10 x 20 room on the back. great place for a new home just mins. from carter caves state park. and i-64 property has a 2 car garage (needs work) and a small outbuilding on the property note the title for the trailer has not been located yet

4. 2003-12-01
   soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $300 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $687 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$387/yr (+$32/mo · 128.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$300
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$789
• − Management: −$789
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $787
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$189
• After-tax cash flow: $1,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carter County
• NCES district ID: 2101020
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $34,662
• Composite: 28.82/100
• National rank: #6656
• State rank: #70 of 165 in KY

Livability — Olive Hill

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #8044

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,372

Population outlook (Carter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,627 people
• By 2030: 24,598 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 22,429 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 20,217 · -21.1%
• By 2075: 15,274 · -40.4%
• By 2100: 10,545 · -58.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Carter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.5) · D 20.2% · R 78.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -48.9pp toward R · 2008: -9.5pp · 2024: -58.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.5 2020: R+52.9 2016: R+51.7 2012: R+21.3 2008: R+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Current HPI: 288.8744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+77.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — AABOR
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $79,900 AABOR
• 2025-11-06 Listed $94,900 AABOR
• 2003-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $300 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.