19408 Goulburn St · Detroit, MI 48205

$49,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1942 4,356 sqft lot $58/sqft · at area comps Est $49k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Solid foundation and solid bones with immediate occupancy. Selling as-is. Cash only.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1942

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $705 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.6% vs local median 10.1% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $49k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $46,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.67%
• DSCR: 3.74
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,198
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: -0.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19170 Schoenherr St	0.46mi	3/1.0	797 (-5%)	0mo	$25,500	$32	70
13452 Tacoma St	0.40mi	3/1.0	900 (+7%)	1mo	$69,072	$77	68
19161 Hamburg St	0.27mi	3/1.0	960 (+14%)	2mo	$116,000	$121	62
18982 Hamburg St	0.33mi	3/1.0	952 (+13%)	3mo	$45,000	$47	60
20543 Waltham St	0.69mi	3/1.0	890 (+6%)	1mo	$50,000	$56	57
20200 Alcoy St	0.58mi	3/1.0	917 (+9%)	2mo	$55,100	$60	56
19392 Pelkey St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	731 (-13%)	2mo	$30,000	$41	54
14027 Tacoma St	0.75mi	2/1.5 (-1)	860 (+2%)	2mo	$34,000	$40	52
20218 Hickory St	0.62mi	3/1.0	930 (+11%)	1mo	$26,000	$28	52
20300 Hickory St	0.69mi	3/1.0	918 (+9%)	1mo	$31,000	$34	51
20218 Goulburn St	0.53mi	3/1.0	965 (+15%)	1mo	$12,000	$12	49
20091 Annott St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	747 (-11%)	1mo	$12,800	$17	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $34,775
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $79,418
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48205

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $948/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $705

Break-even live

Break-even rent $451

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $733	-5% $719	+0% $705	+5% $691	+10% $677
Rent	-10% $599	-5% $652	+0% $705	+5% $758	+10% $811
Rate	-1.0pp $730	-0.5pp $718	base $705	+0.5pp $692	+1.0pp $679

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19143 Fairport St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,225	$1.14	18d	1	0.19mi
19170 Joann St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1020	$1,400	$1.37	45d	1	0.22mi
19220 Alcoy St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,350	$1.32	18d	1	0.25mi
18703 Waltham St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	45d	1	0.39mi
18681 Barlow St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1041	$1,400	$1.34	25d	1	0.43mi
18624 Fairport St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	874	$1,450	$1.66	23d	1	0.46mi
18624 Fairport St Unit NA Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	924	$1,450	$1.57	25d	1	0.46mi
13669 Pfent St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1031	$1,374	$1.33	18d	1	0.47mi
20027 Alcoy St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,349	$1.35	18d	1	0.48mi
20091 Barlow St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	930	$1,300	$1.40	18d	1	0.52mi
19335 Hoover St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	620	$1,099	$1.77	45d	1	0.62mi
19335 Hoover St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	620	$1,099	$1.77	18d	1	0.62mi
18119 Joann St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	25d	1	0.62mi
20296 Waltham St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	986	$1,300	$1.32	18d	1	0.63mi
20242 Hickory St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	747	$1,300	$1.74	12d	1	0.64mi
20227 Pelkey St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	968	$1,350	$1.39	18d	1	0.65mi
20215 Schoenherr St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	19d	1	0.67mi
20553 Hamburg St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1074	$1,300	$1.21	4d	1	0.75mi
12807 Coleen Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,250	$1.16	25d	1	0.84mi
17851 Strasburg St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1079	$1,100	$1.02	18d	1	0.85mi
12846 Georgiana Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	912	$1,300	$1.43	25d	1	0.87mi
11513 Greiner St Unit 11521 Greiner Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	942	$1,050	$1.11	45d	1	0.96mi
14461 Lappin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	989	$1,150	$1.16	18d	1	0.97mi
13501 Vernon Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	25d	1	1.02mi
14068 Carlisle St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,300	$1.27	25d	1	1.03mi
21311 Waltham Rd Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	0d	1	1.07mi
21412 Waltham Rd Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	696	$1,225	$1.76	45d	1	1.12mi
13050 Couwlier Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	850	$1,320	$1.55	0d	1	1.21mi
11228 Sherman Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	13d	1	1.37mi
12740 August St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	6d	1	1.39mi
11700 Engleside St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,175	$1.18	45d	1	1.46mi
12112 Christy St Unit 12110 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	45d	1	1.49mi
12110 Christy St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.5	950	$1,200	$1.26	18d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    listed $49,000 Active 84-char remark

    Show marketing remark (84 chars)

    Solid foundation and solid bones with immediate occupancy. Selling as-is. Cash only.

16. 2026-04-10
    listed $49,000 Active 84-char remark

    Show marketing remark (84 chars)

    Solid foundation and solid bones with immediate occupancy. Selling as-is. Cash only.

17. 2025-12-30
    soldstatus $32,000 Closed
18. 2025-12-30
    soldstatus $32,000 Closed
19. 2025-12-05
    price $37,500
20. 2025-12-04
    price $37,500
21. 2025-11-21
    price $40,000
22. 2025-11-21
    price $40,000
23. 2025-10-28
    listed $42,500 Active
24. 2025-10-27
    listed $42,500 Active
25. 2010-06-11
    soldstatus $6,000
26. 2010-06-11
    soldstatus $6,000
27. 2010-05-18
    historical
28. 2010-05-07
    listed $7,500
29. 2010-05-07
    listed $7,500
30. 1993-03-15
    soldstatus $16,500
31. 1993-03-15
    soldstatus $36,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $948 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $948 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$948
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $8,180
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,963
• After-tax cash flow: $6,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 34,187
• Household income: $38,966
• Rent vs Own: 49.4% rent · 50.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 93% White 3% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.80%
• Current HPI: 235.0926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+197.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $49,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Listed $49,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-30 Sold (MLS) $32,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-30 Sold (MLS) $32,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $37,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $37,500 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $40,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $40,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-28 Listed $42,500 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-27 Listed $42,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-06-11 Sold (MLS) $6,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-06-11 Sold (MLS) $6,000 REALCOMP
• 2010-05-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-05-07 Listed $7,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-05-07 Listed $7,500 REALCOMP
• 1993-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 1993-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $948 · -53.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.