2809 Carabid Ct · Hope Mills, NC 28348

$185,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,740 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 2005 Est $263k · 30% under ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

-You don't have to bid on this home on Carabid. .. you just have to put your best offer forward! Don't miss the boat on this nice 3 bedroom 2 bath home with bonus room. 2 car garage. Privacy fenced rear yard. Corner lot. Sold as is.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005
• Listed 117 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.8% in Hope Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ed V Baldwin Elementary (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,168 of 1,410 statewide, top 83%, 592 students, 100% FRL); South View Middle (math 20% / reading 34%, grade F, #374 of 475 statewide, top 80%, 661 students, 99% FRL); South View High (math 60% / reading 43%, grade D+, #299 of 535 statewide, top 56%, 1,502 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 55% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $185k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.42%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,740
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2512 Camp Lejeune Ct	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (-0%)	1mo	$255,000	$147	79
2628 Daniel Boone Ln	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,866 (+7%)	0mo	$260,000	$139	78
3709 Languid Ct	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,704 (-2%)	4mo	$264,900	$155	76
623 Cypress Pond Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,595 (-8%)	3mo	$250,000	$157	72
417 Bellgrove Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,623 (-7%)	1mo	$279,000	$172	66
625 Creedmoore Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,674 (-4%)	2mo	$264,500	$158	65
4709 Quaker Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-12%)	1mo	$214,000	$139	63
2568 Spinnaker Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,929 (+11%)	4mo	$270,000	$140	61
2923 High Plains Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,994 (+15%)	5mo	$255,000	$128	53
719 Alexwood Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,500 (-14%)	0mo	$234,000	$156	51
4808 Miranda Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,558 (-10%)	4mo	$235,000	$151	46
542 Gapway Ct	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,996 (+15%)	1mo	$280,000	$140	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-12,704
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $18,083
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28348

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,822 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,898/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,526

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $339	-5% $287	+0% $234	+5% $182	+10% $129
Rent	-10% $90	-5% $162	+0% $234	+5% $306	+10% $378
Rate	-1.0pp $327	-0.5pp $281	base $234	+0.5pp $186	+1.0pp $137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3718 Pioneer Dr Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,290	$0.85	24d	1	0.30mi
2935 High Plains Dr Hope Mills, NC	4.0	2.5	1937	$1,900	$0.98	15d	1	0.33mi
2616 Indian Wells Ct Hope Mills, NC	4.0	2.5	2181	$2,150	$0.99	15d	1	0.45mi
2634 Indian Wells Ct Hope Mills, NC	4.0	2.5	1932	$2,100	$1.09	15d	1	0.48mi
5340 Miranda Dr Hope Mills, NC	4.0	2.5	1954	$1,900	$0.97	24d	1	0.76mi
509 Meadowland Ct Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	1236	$1,400	$1.13	24d	1	0.77mi
3101 Ansley Ct Hope Mills, NC	4.0	2.0	1910	$1,950	$1.02	24d	1	0.94mi
513 Directive Dr Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	1307	$1,275	$0.98	15d	1	0.95mi
505 Directive Dr Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.5	1254	$1,495	$1.19	24d	1	0.96mi
408 Sheila St Hope Mills, NC	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,150	$1.08	24d	1	0.98mi
3100 Winesap Rd Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1082	$1,495	$1.38	15d	1	1.17mi
1055 Winnall LN Hope Mills, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1132	$2,000	$1.77	15d	20	1.29mi
405 Grand Wailea Dr Hope Mills, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1061	$1,656	$1.56	24d	9	1.32mi
3640 Ambition Rd Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.5	1990	$1,995	$1.00	15d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-02-12
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-26
   status Active
3. 2025-12-17
   status Pending
4. 2025-10-08
   listed $185,000 Active
5. 2015-02-04
   soldstatus $104,000 232-char remark

   Show marketing remark (232 chars)

   -You don't have to bid on this home on Carabid. .. you just have to put your best offer forward! Don't miss the boat on this nice 3 bedroom 2 bath home with bonus room. 2 car garage. Privacy fenced rear yard. Corner lot. Sold as is.

6. 2014-05-27
   listed $104,900 232-char remark

   Show marketing remark (232 chars)

   -You don't have to bid on this home on Carabid. .. you just have to put your best offer forward! Don't miss the boat on this nice 3 bedroom 2 bath home with bonus room. 2 car garage. Privacy fenced rear yard. Corner lot. Sold as is.

7. 2005-06-24
   soldstatus $250,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,898 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,898 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,898
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,749
• − Management: −$1,749
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$199
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$48
• After-tax cash flow: $2,858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 39,196
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 39,196
• Household income: $66,129
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 746.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.14%
• Current HPI: 228.3122
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.28%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-26.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2025-12-26 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2025-12-17 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $185,000 LPRMLS
• 2015-02-04 Sold (MLS) $104,000 LPRMLS
• 2014-05-27 Listed $104,900 LPRMLS
• 2005-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,898 · +22.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.