26 Bokel Rd · Lake Ronkonkoma, NY 11779

$619,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,767 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2005 9,148 sqft lot $350/sqft · at area comps Est $749k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated 2 story home secludedly located at the end of a dead end road. Built in 2005 this home has 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. It has an attached 2 car garage with radiant floor heating. There is a private balcony/deck outside one bedroom that overlooks the grounds. The ground floor primary bedroom has a huge barn door closet and its own private bathroom. Natural Gas Heating and Cooking. Approximately half mile to the new Ronkonkoma Hub / Station Yards

Key facts

• Natural gas heating
• Private balcony
• 9,148 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• RADIANT FLOOR HEATING
• HUGE BARN DOOR CLOSET
• NATURAL GAS HEATING
• HALF MILE TO RONKONKOMA HUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $619k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $426k (31.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $406k (34.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $406k (34.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#169 in NY, #2,606 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Samoset Middle School (math 51% / reading 63%, grade B, #192 of 729 statewide, top 28%, 892 students, 31% FRL); Sachem High School North (math 96% / reading 95%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,923 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 175 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($600k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 15394% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $619k implies a 519% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $405,829 (34.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.55%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $748,912
• List price: $619,000
• Delta: -17.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Windham Ln	0.15mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,925 (+9%)	1mo	$630,000	$327	70
44 Avenue F	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,636 (-7%)	13mo	$650,000	$397	67
2 Richard Pl	0.46mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,830 (+4%)	5mo	$714,000	$390	59
142 Pond Rd	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,718 (-3%)	14mo	$689,000	$401	56
21 Coleridge Rd	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,522 (-14%)	2mo	$606,000	$398	50
22 Avenue D	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,800 (+2%)	18mo	$615,000	$342	49
2 Alan St	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,852 (+5%)	6mo	$695,000	$375	49
36 Lakewood Ave	0.72mi	3/3.0	1,536 (-13%)	1mo	$630,000	$410	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-178,555
• Equity at exit: $92,295

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-279,332
• Equity at exit: $53,520

Cash invested: $173,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11779

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,058 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,246
• Tax from tax record: −$793 /mo · $9,518/yr
• Insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$852
• Net cashflow: $-1,091

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,439

Max offer price $426,249

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-741	-5% $-916	+0% $-1,091	+5% $-1,266	+10% $-1,442
Rent	-10% $-1,412	-5% $-1,251	+0% $-1,091	+5% $-931	+10% $-771
Rate	-1.0pp $-779	-0.5pp $-934	base $-1,091	+0.5pp $-1,252	+1.0pp $-1,415

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $154,750
• Closing costs: $18,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Hawkins Ave Lake Ronkonkoma, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$5,009	$5.22	0d	130	0.69mi
100 Lake Rd Ronkonkoma, NY	3.0	2.5	1800	$4,500	$2.50	45d	1	1.23mi
2758 Cedar Ave Ronkonkoma, NY	2.0	2.0	1819	$3,200	$1.76	0d	1	1.30mi
16 Birch Dr Ronkonkoma, NY	3.0	2.0	1536	$4,250	$2.77	26d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-19
   listed $3,995
2. 2026-05-18
   price $619,000 468-char remark

   Show marketing remark (468 chars)

   Updated 2 story home secludedly located at the end of a dead end road. Built in 2005 this home has 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. It has an attached 2 car garage with radiant floor heating. There is a private balcony/deck outside one bedroom that overlooks the grounds. The ground floor primary bedroom has a huge barn door closet and its own private bathroom. Natural Gas Heating and Cooking. Approximately half mile to the new Ronkonkoma Hub / Station Yards

3. 2026-04-06
   historical $4,200

   Show marketing remark (468 chars)

   Updated 2 story home secludedly located at the end of a dead end road. Built in 2005 this home has 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. It has an attached 2 car garage with radiant floor heating. There is a private balcony/deck outside one bedroom that overlooks the grounds. The ground floor primary bedroom has a huge barn door closet and its own private bathroom. Natural Gas Heating and Cooking. Approximately half mile to the new Ronkonkoma Hub / Station Yards

4. 2026-04-06
   listed $629,950 Active 468-char remark

   Show marketing remark (468 chars)

   Updated 2 story home secludedly located at the end of a dead end road. Built in 2005 this home has 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. It has an attached 2 car garage with radiant floor heating. There is a private balcony/deck outside one bedroom that overlooks the grounds. The ground floor primary bedroom has a huge barn door closet and its own private bathroom. Natural Gas Heating and Cooking. Approximately half mile to the new Ronkonkoma Hub / Station Yards

5. 2026-03-11
   listed $4,200
6. 2026-01-30
   historical
7. 2025-10-24
   price $649,900
8. 2025-10-06
   price $599,999
9. 2025-09-10
   listed $675,000 Active
10. 2023-10-04
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,518 · $793/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,989 · $832/mo
• Expected delta: +$472/yr (+$39/mo · 5.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,674
• − Property taxes: −$9,518
• − Insurance: −$3,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,896
• − Management: −$3,896
• − Depreciation: −$18,007
• Taxable loss: −$24,386
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,853
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sachem Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625350
• Math proficiency: 69% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $92,968
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #472
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Ronkonkoma

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #2606

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Ronkonkoma, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 38,273
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,206
• Household income: $112,180
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 874.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Asian 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -569.98%
• Current HPI: 350.0973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-96.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed for Rent $3,995 ONEKEY
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $619,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Rental Removed $4,200 ONEKEY
• 2026-04-06 Listed $629,950 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed for Rent $4,200 ONEKEY
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $649,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $599,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-10 Listed $675,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,518 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.