Residence 5 Plan · Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$615,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,547 sqft · SingleFamily · 199 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Cash flow +2.6/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Residence Five: The most expansive plan in the collection at Park Haven, this home is ideal for growing families. . It includes options for a den, office, or fifth bedroom, along with an open-concept layout, walk-in closets in nearly every room, and a downstairs guest suite or bonus space. Enjoy the luxuries included in a Cresleigh Home such as hand set tiles in entry way, kitchen and wet areas, large eat-in kitchen island, ample storage, and All-Ready Smart Home package.

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Open-concept layout
• Ample storage

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• DOWNSTAIRS GUEST SUITE
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN ISLAND
• AMPLE STORAGE
• ALL-READY SMART HOME PACKAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $615,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $733,597.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $615k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-30k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $372k (39.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (47.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $326k (47.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Cordova — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: commute C-, crime D, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary (math 65% / reading 67%, grade B+, #176 of 1,571 statewide, top 11%, 966 students, 21% FRL); Katherine L. Albiani Middle (math 55% / reading 67%, grade B+, #57 of 498 statewide, top 12%, 1,307 students, 27% FRL); Pleasant Grove High (math 57% / reading 74%, grade B, #157 of 1,170 statewide, top 14%, 2,520 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 43% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Elk Grove Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $78k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $73k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$126k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($541k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $325,702 (47.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.44% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.59%
• DSCR: 0.35
• GRM: 18.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $733,597
• List price: $615,000
• Delta: -16.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3950 Aura Way	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,547 (0%)	1mo	$615,000	$241	91
12051 Mircado Way	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,557 (+0%)	0mo	$657,308	$257	67
4121 Peak Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,293 (-10%)	0mo	$700,000	$305	64
4159 Aura Way	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,293 (-10%)	2mo	$795,000	$347	64
12021 Tiresias Way	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,365 (-7%)	2mo	$628,888	$266	60
4006 Quarter Dome Cir	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,597 (+2%)	0mo	$695,000	$268	60
4195 Dovekie Ct	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,399 (-6%)	1mo	$745,000	$311	56
4179 Dovekie Ct	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,399 (-6%)	2mo	$768,280	$320	56
4327 Orpheus Cir	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,365 (-7%)	0mo	$650,000	$275	55
12445 Kibbie Lake Way	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,597 (+2%)	1mo	$770,000	$296	54
4263 Orpheus Cir	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,365 (-7%)	1mo	$636,400	$269	53
12425 Kibbie Lake Way	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,246 (-12%)	1mo	$712,000	$317	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $237,583
• Equity at exit: $660,883

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.99×
• Total profit: $818,951
• Equity at exit: $1,425,218

Cash invested: $205,407 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95742

• Home prices YoY: 28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 15.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,257 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,847
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$917 /mo · $11,004/yr
• Insurance: −$306
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$684
• Net cashflow: $-2,497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,417

Max offer price $372,324

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,990	-5% $-2,243	+0% $-2,497	+5% $-2,750	+10% $-3,004
Rent	-10% $-2,754	-5% $-2,625	+0% $-2,497	+5% $-2,368	+10% $-2,239
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,127	-0.5pp $-2,310	base $-2,497	+0.5pp $-2,687	+1.0pp $-2,880

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $183,399
• Closing costs: $22,008
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12153 Coal Creek Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1906	$2,750	$1.44	16d	1	0.30mi
4013 Trento Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2371	$3,225	$1.36	18d	1	0.57mi
11925 Cobblebrook Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2786	$3,595	$1.29	45d	1	0.64mi
11965 Pericles Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2580	$2,900	$1.12	45d	1	0.89mi
4221 Anatolia Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.5	2763	$3,195	$1.16	9d	1	1.03mi
4223 Anatolia Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.5	2876	$2,500	$0.87	25d	1	1.03mi
11795 Corino Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,880	$1.44	0d	1	1.13mi
11832 Stoney Ridge Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	2019	$2,695	$1.33	12d	1	1.14mi
11688 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	1765	$3,499	$1.98	14d	1	1.22mi
11684 Fiorenza Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	1765	$3,529	$2.00	24d	1	1.24mi
3686 Rockdale Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.0	1880	$2,795	$1.49	9d	1	1.29mi
4480 Arctic Tern Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	2550	$3,000	$1.18	45d	1	1.35mi
4328 Greenshank Cir Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.0	1800	$3,100	$1.72	45d	1	1.44mi
12647 Spotted Wren Way Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.0	2609	$3,450	$1.32	45d	1	1.46mi
4454 Greenshank Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,795	$1.47	0d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $615,000 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $615,000 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $615,000 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $615,000 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $615,000 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $615,000 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $615,000 Active 190 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $615,000 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $615,000 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $615,000 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $615,000 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $615,000 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $615,000 Active 180 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $615,000 Active 179 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $615,000 Active 178 DOM
16. 2025-12-04
    listed $615,000 Active 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Residence Five: The most expansive plan in the collection at Park Haven, this home is ideal for growing families. . It includes options for a den, office, or fifth bedroom, along with an open-concept layout, walk-in closets in nearly every room, and a downstairs guest suite or bonus space. Enjoy the luxuries included in a Cresleigh Home such as hand set tiles in entry way, kitchen and wet areas, large eat-in kitchen island, ample storage, and All-Ready Smart Home package.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,093
• − Property taxes: −$11,004
• − Insurance: −$3,668
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,127
• − Management: −$3,127
• − Depreciation: −$21,341
• Taxable loss: −$44,275
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,626
• After-tax cash flow: $-19,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,768
• Household income: $155,855
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.05%
• Current HPI: 236.1388
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Listed $615,000 Zillow