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B- Composite 69.41
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +30.0/30.0
  • 1% rule +10.0/10.0
  • DSCR +10.0/10.0
  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Schools +4.3/10.0
  • Livability +3.9/5.0
  • Condition / age +2.5/5.0
  • Rent growth +1.2/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$49,900

9790 66th St N #399 · Pinellas Park, FL 33782
2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Manufactured public records · 323 Days on market
Built 1972 $260/mo HOA · 16% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Looking for a great, affordable 55+ retirement community? Well look no further than Clearwater Cascade! Community features 2 pools, shuffleboard, tennis courts, clubhouse for socials and all of your ground maintenance is taken care of. Currently priced at land value, but you can rehab the existing trailer and double your investment.

Key facts

  • Clubhouse
  • Tennis courts
  • 2 pools

Tags

2 POOLSSHUFFLEBOARDTENNIS COURTSCLUBHOUSEGROUND MAINTENANCE

Property features AI

Finance

  • Other: Directions: 66th St. N - turn right into community
  • Financial info: Lease restrictions apply; Total monthly fees: $260; Total annual fees: $3,120
  • HOA & community: Association: Clearwater Cascade; Monthly HOA fee of $260 (includes pool, maintenance grounds, management, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water); Association approval required; Community features: Clubhouse, Deed restrictions, Pool; Senior community; Pets allowed: Cats and dogs

Exterior

  • Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
  • Home design: Mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces south; Entry level: One
  • Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Other foundation
  • Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road surface

Interior

  • Kitchen: No appliances listed
  • Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
  • Flooring: Laminate flooring
  • Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
  • Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
  • Interior features: Other interior features
  • Laundry & utility: No laundry features

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 3.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $679 ($8k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
  • Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 22.6% vs local median 4.0% in Pinellas Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 78/100 on livability (#170 in FL, #2,546 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
  • Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.3%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
  • At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
3.35%
Cap rate
22.63%
Cash-on-cash
58.35%
DSCR
3.60
GRM
2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
52.6%
Equity multiple
3.18×
Total profit
$30,492
Equity at exit
$7,440
10-year hold
IRR
56.4%
Equity multiple
5.59×
Total profit
$64,170
Equity at exit
$4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

ZIP-level market 33782

Rents YoY
-5.3%
Active inventory
203
Price-to-rent
2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,673 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$262
Tax from tax record
$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
Insurance
$21
HOA
$260
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$351
Net cashflow
$679

Break-even live

Break-even rent $813
Max offer price $49,900
Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $708 -5% $694 +0% $679 +5% $665 +10% $651
Rent -10% $547 -5% $613 +0% $679 +5% $746 +10% $812
Rate -1.0pp $705 -0.5pp $692 base $679 +0.5pp $667 +1.0pp $653

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$12,475
Closing costs
$1,497
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
8304 Bardmoor Blvd #104 Seminole, FL 1.0 1.0 700 $1,599 $2.28 5d 1 1.04mi

HOA detail

Monthly dues
$260 · $3,120/yr
Likely covers
waterpool

Listing history 7 events

  1. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,900 Active 323 DOM
  2. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 322 DOM
  3. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 320 DOM
  4. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 319 DOM
  5. 2025-11-16
    status Active
  6. 2025-11-14
    historical
  7. 2025-07-14
    listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$1,198 · $100/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$1,198 · $100/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$20,077
− Mortgage interest
−$2,795
− Property taxes
−$1,198
− Insurance
−$250
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,606
− Management
−$1,606
− HOA
−$3,120
− Depreciation
−$1,452
Taxable income
$8,050
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
−$1,932
After-tax cash flow
$6,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

District
Pinellas
NCES district ID
1201560
Math proficiency
51% ▼ -5.00%
Reading proficiency
51% ▼ -3.00%
Median HH income
$46,270
Composite
43.27/100
National rank
#3046
State rank
#31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pinellas Park

Score
78/100
State rank
#170
US rank
#2546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Pinellas Park, FL
County
Pinellas County · 939,478 people
City population
50,533
Metro
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
Population (ZIP)
22,461
Household income
$66,461
Rent vs Own
25.6% rent · 74.4% own
Severe rent burden
486.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,027,532 people
By 2030
1,063,586 · +3.5%
By 2040
1,125,020 · +9.5%
By 2050
1,168,637 · +13.7%
By 2075
1,265,188 · +23.1%
By 2100
1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (68%)
Race & ethnicity
White 68% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 12% Two or more races 8% Black 5%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
Foreign-born
17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home
78% English-only · Spanish 9% Vietnamese 7% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

2024 margin
Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
2008→2024 swing
-13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
All cycles
2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

Civics

Market trends

HPI YoY
▼ -250.17%
Current HPI
314.1689
Rent YoY
▼ -5.28%
Metro
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
State GDP YoY
▲ 3.28%
F500 in state
36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry F500 HQs Revenue

Price history

3 events — show timeline
  • 2025-11-16 Relisted Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-11-14 Listing Removed Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-07-14 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,198 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…