21249 Durden Rd · Lacoochee, FL 33523

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1955 1.22 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the peace and privacy of country living on this spacious lot located just outside the charming and growing community of Dade City. With over an acre of land, there's plenty of room to spread out. This property offers the perfect blend of open space, privacy, and convenience. Surrounded by nature, beautiful trees (Oak Trees, Orange Trees, Grapefruit Trees, etc) and wide-open skies, the property provides a quiet retreat while still being close to everyday essentials. Families will appreciate being less than a mile from Lacoochee Elementary School, making school drop-offs simple and convenient. Located just minutes from downtown Dade City, you’ll enjoy easy access to local restaurants, shops, parks, and community events while still having the privacy that larger lots provide. With plenty of space for outdoor activities, gardening, or future improvements, this property offers endless potential for homeowners or investors looking to take advantage of one of Pasco County’s up-and-coming areas. Property is also not in a flood zone. The home is functional but could benefit from some updates and TLC but could be scraped to start fresh on this large lot.

Key facts

• Not in a flood zone
• Spacious lot
• Over an acre

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• OVER AN ACRE
• NOT IN A FLOOD ZONE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Corner parcel of about 1 to less than 2 acres
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply

Exterior

• Utilities: Well (see remarks); Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces east; Property in completed condition; Residential zoning (R1MH)
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on approximately 1.2 acres
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $431 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#904 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.79%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $95,540
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.42×
• Total profit: $259,699
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33523

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,025/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,004

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $502	-5% $467	+0% $431	+5% $396	+10% $361
Rent	-10% $309	-5% $370	+0% $431	+5% $493	+10% $554
Rate	-1.0pp $494	-0.5pp $463	base $431	+0.5pp $399	+1.0pp $366

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34934 Punch Rd Dade City, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$1,550	$1.68	25d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $125,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-03-11
   listed $125,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

   Enjoy the peace and privacy of country living on this spacious lot located just outside the charming and growing community of Dade City. With over an acre of land, there's plenty of room to spread out. This property offers the perfect blend of open space, privacy, and convenience. Surrounded by nature, beautiful trees (Oak Trees, Orange Trees, Grapefruit Trees, etc) and wide-open skies, the property provides a quiet retreat while still being close to everyday essentials. Families will appreciate being less than a mile from Lacoochee Elementary School, making school drop-offs simple and convenient. Located just minutes from downtown Dade City, you’ll enjoy easy access to local restaurants, shops, parks, and community events while still having the privacy that larger lots provide. With plenty of space for outdoor activities, gardening, or future improvements, this property offers endless potential for homeowners or investors looking to take advantage of one of Pasco County’s up-and-coming areas. Property is also not in a flood zone. The home is functional but could benefit from some updates and TLC but could be scraped to start fresh on this large lot.

3. 2026-03-11
   listed $125,000 Active 1180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

   Enjoy the peace and privacy of country living on this spacious lot located just outside the charming and growing community of Dade City. With over an acre of land, there's plenty of room to spread out. This property offers the perfect blend of open space, privacy, and convenience. Surrounded by nature, beautiful trees (Oak Trees, Orange Trees, Grapefruit Trees, etc) and wide-open skies, the property provides a quiet retreat while still being close to everyday essentials. Families will appreciate being less than a mile from Lacoochee Elementary School, making school drop-offs simple and convenient. Located just minutes from downtown Dade City, you’ll enjoy easy access to local restaurants, shops, parks, and community events while still having the privacy that larger lots provide. With plenty of space for outdoor activities, gardening, or future improvements, this property offers endless potential for homeowners or investors looking to take advantage of one of Pasco County’s up-and-coming areas. Property is also not in a flood zone. The home is functional but could benefit from some updates and TLC but could be scraped to start fresh on this large lot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,038 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$13/yr (+$1/mo · 1.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,025
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,336
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$801
• After-tax cash flow: $4,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lacoochee

• Score: 43/100
• State rank: #904
• US rank: #26852

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lacoochee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,296

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.36%
• Current HPI: 448.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+18.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,025 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.