10018 Cedar Branch Drive Dr · Baytown, TX 77521

$99,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 104 Days on market

Built 2003 5,427 sqft lot $82/sqft · at area comps Est $100k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open floor plan. Bedroom and bath on both ends of mobile home. Large living room and kitchen with island bar and china cabinet. Master bath has large tub with separate shower Large covered porch , storage building.

Key facts

• 5,427 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2003

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clark El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 683 students, 63% FRL); Gentry J H (math 40% / reading 36%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 997 students, 67% FRL); Sterling H S (math 53% / reading 44%, grade D, #560 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 2,098 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 624 active listings in the ZIP; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,545 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.87%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,500
• List price: $99,500
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10018 Cedar Branch Drive Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,216 (0%)	0mo	$99,500	$82	100
10030 Cedar Lndg	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (0%)	3mo	$115,000	$95	89

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $11,012
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $38,499
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 624
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,527 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,180/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $943

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $518	-5% $489	+0% $461	+5% $433	+10% $405
Rent	-10% $341	-5% $401	+0% $461	+5% $522	+10% $582
Rate	-1.0pp $511	-0.5pp $487	base $461	+0.5pp $435	+1.0pp $409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,500 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,500 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,500 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,500 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,500 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,500 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-02-25
   listed $105,000 Active 217-char remark

   Show marketing remark (217 chars)

   Open floor plan. Bedroom and bath on both ends of mobile home. Large living room and kitchen with island bar and china cabinet. Master bath has large tub with separate shower Large covered porch , storage building.

9. 2022-06-02
   soldstatus
10. 2022-06-01
    soldstatus Sold 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Great open floor plan home with lots of living area. Large kitchen with cabinets galore is great for the gourmet cook. Two primary bedrooms on each end of home. Huge covered porch just to sit and enjoy the outside beauty. Home is surrounded by large seasoned trees. Buyers are certain to fall in love with this home.

11. 2022-04-25
    status Pending 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Great open floor plan home with lots of living area. Large kitchen with cabinets galore is great for the gourmet cook. Two primary bedrooms on each end of home. Huge covered porch just to sit and enjoy the outside beauty. Home is surrounded by large seasoned trees. Buyers are certain to fall in love with this home.

12. 2022-04-08
    listed $89,900 Active 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Great open floor plan home with lots of living area. Large kitchen with cabinets galore is great for the gourmet cook. Two primary bedrooms on each end of home. Huge covered porch just to sit and enjoy the outside beauty. Home is surrounded by large seasoned trees. Buyers are certain to fall in love with this home.

13. 2003-04-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,180 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,180 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$2,180
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,466
• − Management: −$1,466
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $4,244
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,019
• After-tax cash flow: $4,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+16.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2022-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-04-08 Listed $89,900 HARMLS
• 2003-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,180 · +52.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.