1204 Seth St · Alpine, TX 79830

$65,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 18 Days on market

Built 1995 8,712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located on a quiet street just a few blocks from a park, this 3 BR, 1.5 BA home offers a spacious kitchen, a sequestered master bedroom, and built-in dressers for added storage. The home has a metal roof, mountain views, and sits in a low-traffic area. Inside, the enclosed front porch provides extra storage. Outside, you'll find a fenced backyard with plenty of room for outdoor use, along with a carport. While the home needs TLC, it offers potential and is ready for your personal touch.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Spacious kitchen
• Built-in dressers

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• SEQUESTERED MASTER BEDROOM
• BUILT-IN DRESSERS
• METAL ROOF
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Double wide mobile home; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Paved road access; On-site storage; Solar energy system

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling with window unit(s)
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Electric range; Dryer; Washer hookup; Carpet and vinyl flooring; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $791 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#73 in TX, #2,631 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, employment F.
• Alpine ISD (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #235 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alpine El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 377 students, 47% FRL); Alpine Middle (math 38% / reading 55%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 269 students, 58% FRL); Alpine H S (math 77% / reading 62%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 308 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Brewster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brewster County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,025 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.17%
• DSCR: 3.32
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $39,884
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.48×
• Total profit: $99,716
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79830

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,570 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $791

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $836	-5% $814	+0% $791	+5% $769	+10% $746
Rent	-10% $667	-5% $729	+0% $791	+5% $853	+10% $915
Rate	-1.0pp $824	-0.5pp $808	base $791	+0.5pp $774	+1.0pp $757

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,507
• − Management: −$1,507
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $8,995
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,159
• After-tax cash flow: $7,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alpine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807950
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,184
• Composite: 40.06/100
• National rank: #3814
• State rank: #235 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alpine

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #2631

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alpine, TX
• County: Brewster County · 7,853 people
• City population: 7,853
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,853
• Household income: $66,546
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 229.0

Population outlook (Brewster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,850 people
• By 2030: 8,577 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 7,903 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 7,338 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 5,950 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 4,678 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (52%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 15% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brewster

• 2024 margin: R (+12.6) · D 43.0% · R 55.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: -12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.6 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+4.8 2012: R+5.4 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.21%
• Current HPI: 178.4899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — ODMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $65,000 ODMLS