3863 Holders Grove Rd · Cosby, TN 37722

$399,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 2022 1.06 ac lot $350/sqft · 26% below area Est $537k · 26% under ↓ 20% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience refined mountain living in this impeccably maintained modern cabin, gracefully positioned on a private one-acre homesite with sweeping, unobstructed mountain views just minutes from Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Designed with both sophistication and comfort in mind, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath retreat features two private bedroom suites -- one on the main level and one upstairs -- offering the ultimate in privacy and flexibility. The expansive open-concept living space is filled with natural light and anchored by a sleek electric fireplace, creating a warm yet contemporary ambiance. The gourmet kitchen showcases brand-new stainless steel appliances and flows seamlessly into the main living area, ideal for entertaining or relaxing after a day hiking in the mountains. Upstairs, an open loft area provides additional flexible living space -- perfect for a game room, media lounge, home office, or additional guest accommodations -- enhancing both lifestyle appeal and rental potential. Step outside to experience true mountain serenity. A beautifully designed outdoor fire pit sits beneath a charmingly rustic pergola, creating the perfect setting for evening gatherings, roasting marshmellows, making Smores, and enjoying the crisp mountain air. Whether envisioned as a luxury primary residence, an exclusive vacation escape, or a high-end short-term rental investment, this exceptional property offers elegance, privacy, versatility, and a true elevated mountain lifestyle. Some images in this listing have been virtually staged and/or digitally altered.

Key facts

• Private homesite
• Gourmet kitchen
• Rustic pergola

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• PRIVATE HOMESITE
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR FIRE PIT
• RUSTIC PERGOLA
• OPEN LOFT AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (47.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (60.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (60.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 2.3% in Cosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cocke County (rural): math 21% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #112 of 139 in TN (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cosby Elementary (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #472 of 952 statewide, top 50%, 421 students, 0% FRL); Cosby High School (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #215 of 332 statewide, top 67%, 326 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 71% district-wide (71 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 171 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cocke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cocke County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,975 (60.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 60% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.40% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.60%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 20.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $537,191
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: -25.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3871 Holders Grove Rd	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,246 (+9%)	21mo	$358,000	$287	62
104 Ball Park Rd	0.54mi	2/1.0	1,080 (-6%)	17mo	$225,000	$208	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $148,617
• Equity at exit: $360,262

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.39×
• Total profit: $491,410
• Equity at exit: $776,918

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37722

• Home prices YoY: 27.9%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 20.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $991/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-1,083

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,970

Max offer price $208,667

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-856	-5% $-969	+0% $-1,083	+5% $-1,196	+10% $-1,309
Rent	-10% $-1,209	-5% $-1,146	+0% $-1,083	+5% $-1,019	+10% $-956
Rate	-1.0pp $-881	-0.5pp $-981	base $-1,083	+0.5pp $-1,186	+1.0pp $-1,292

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,900 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $399,900 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,900 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,900 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $399,900 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $399,900 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,900 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,900 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 98 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,900 Active 97 DOM
18. 2026-05-16
    price $399,900 1577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1577 chars)

    Experience refined mountain living in this impeccably maintained modern cabin, gracefully positioned on a private one-acre homesite with sweeping, unobstructed mountain views just minutes from Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Designed with both sophistication and comfort in mind, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath retreat features two private bedroom suites -- one on the main level and one upstairs -- offering the ultimate in privacy and flexibility. The expansive open-concept living space is filled with natural light and anchored by a sleek electric fireplace, creating a warm yet contemporary ambiance. The gourmet kitchen showcases brand-new stainless steel appliances and flows seamlessly into the main living area, ideal for entertaining or relaxing after a day hiking in the mountains. Upstairs, an open loft area provides additional flexible living space -- perfect for a game room, media lounge, home office, or additional guest accommodations -- enhancing both lifestyle appeal and rental potential. Step outside to experience true mountain serenity. A beautifully designed outdoor fire pit sits beneath a charmingly rustic pergola, creating the perfect setting for evening gatherings, roasting marshmellows, making Smores, and enjoying the crisp mountain air. Whether envisioned as a luxury primary residence, an exclusive vacation escape, or a high-end short-term rental investment, this exceptional property offers elegance, privacy, versatility, and a true elevated mountain lifestyle. Some images in this listing have been virtually staged and/or digitally altered.

19. 2026-02-23
    listed $409,900 Active 1577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1577 chars)

    Experience refined mountain living in this impeccably maintained modern cabin, gracefully positioned on a private one-acre homesite with sweeping, unobstructed mountain views just minutes from Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Designed with both sophistication and comfort in mind, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath retreat features two private bedroom suites -- one on the main level and one upstairs -- offering the ultimate in privacy and flexibility. The expansive open-concept living space is filled with natural light and anchored by a sleek electric fireplace, creating a warm yet contemporary ambiance. The gourmet kitchen showcases brand-new stainless steel appliances and flows seamlessly into the main living area, ideal for entertaining or relaxing after a day hiking in the mountains. Upstairs, an open loft area provides additional flexible living space -- perfect for a game room, media lounge, home office, or additional guest accommodations -- enhancing both lifestyle appeal and rental potential. Step outside to experience true mountain serenity. A beautifully designed outdoor fire pit sits beneath a charmingly rustic pergola, creating the perfect setting for evening gatherings, roasting marshmellows, making Smores, and enjoying the crisp mountain air. Whether envisioned as a luxury primary residence, an exclusive vacation escape, or a high-end short-term rental investment, this exceptional property offers elegance, privacy, versatility, and a true elevated mountain lifestyle. Some images in this listing have been virtually staged and/or digitally altered.

20. 2025-10-03
    historical
21. 2025-10-03
    historical
22. 2025-09-09
    price $429,950
23. 2025-09-09
    price $429,950
24. 2025-09-09
    price $429,950
25. 2025-07-09
    price $449,850
26. 2025-07-09
    price $449,850
27. 2025-07-09
    price $449,850
28. 2025-06-14
    price $459,850
29. 2025-06-14
    price $459,850
30. 2025-06-14
    price $459,850
31. 2025-05-13
    price $469,500
32. 2025-05-13
    price $469,500
33. 2025-05-13
    price $469,500
34. 2025-04-14
    listed $482,500 Active
35. 2025-04-14
    listed $482,500 Active
36. 2025-04-14
    listed $482,500 Active
37. 2025-04-14
    listed $429,950
38. 2022-06-27
    soldstatus $499,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $991 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,839 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,848/yr (+$154/mo · 186.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,197
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$991
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$20,899
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,016
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,975/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cocke County
• NCES district ID: 4700750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $33,486
• Composite: 17.17/100
• National rank: #9109
• State rank: #112 of 139 in TN

Livability — Cosby

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,430

Population outlook (Cocke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,586 people
• By 2030: 32,394 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 29,727 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 27,075 · -19.4%
• By 2075: 22,590 · -32.7%
• By 2100: 19,643 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cocke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.2) · D 15.4% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -68.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.2 2020: R+64.8 2016: R+64.5 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 85.12%
• Current HPI: 390.2959
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-19.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $399,900 GSMAR
• 2026-02-23 Listed $409,900 GSMAR
• 2025-10-03 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2025-10-03 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $429,950 LAAR
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $429,950 GSMAR
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $429,950 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $449,850 LAAR
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $449,850 GSMAR
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $449,850 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $459,850 GSMAR
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $459,850 LAAR
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $459,850 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $469,500 LAAR
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $469,500 GSMAR
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $469,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-04-14 Listed $482,500 GSMAR
• 2025-04-14 Listed $482,500 LAAR
• 2025-04-14 Listed $482,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-04-14 Listed $429,950 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-27 Sold (MLS) $499,000 GSMAR

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $991 · +35.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.