12 Casey Ln · Rock Hill, NY 12790

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1955 0.27 ac lot $119/sqft · 66% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked on a quiet lane just moments from Yankee Lake, this three-bedroom cottage offers the kind of potential that’s getting harder to find in Sullivan County. The setting is peaceful and wooded, with a level quarter-acre lot and that classic Catskills-area charm buyers look for in a weekend place or year-round home. Inside, the layout is simple and functional, with original wood floors, a screened entry porch, and natural light throughout. Several rooms still carry their vintage character, while others are ready for a full refresh, giving the next owner room to re imagine the space from the ground up. The structure and footprint make it an ideal canvas for renovation. With the parcel

Key facts

• Original wood floors
• Screened entry porch
• 0.27 acre lot

Tags

• LEVEL QUARTER ACRE LOT
• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORS
• SCREENED ENTRY PORCH
• LAKE RIGHTS POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Wood siding; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; No cooling system
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $609 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 2.6% in Rock Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Emma C Chase School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 228 students, 57% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,350 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.72%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,046
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -65.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Wolf Pond Rd	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (0%)	6mo	$185,000	$200	78
8 Clipper Dr	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	801 (-13%)	20mo	$449,000	$561	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $98,765
• Equity at exit: $99,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.46×
• Total profit: $260,515
• Equity at exit: $213,706

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12790

• Home prices YoY: 26.8%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,842 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $609

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,071

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $671	-5% $640	+0% $609	+5% $578	+10% $547
Rent	-10% $463	-5% $536	+0% $609	+5% $682	+10% $754
Rate	-1.0pp $664	-0.5pp $637	base $609	+0.5pp $580	+1.0pp $551

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 1768-char remark
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $110,000 Active 1768-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,685 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,685 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $5,971
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,433
• After-tax cash flow: $5,873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rock Hill

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,661
• Population (ZIP): 4,341

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Slovak 5% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 95.79%
• Current HPI: 452.7233
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $110,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,685 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.