199 Twin Lakes Dr · Arab, AL 35016

$145,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1965 0.80 ac lot $126/sqft · 24% below area Est $190k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic location with a gorgeous lake view. Home was completely gutted and needs to be finished. New wiring, plumbing, breaker box, outside breaker, windows and roof have been completed. 2 or 3 bedrooms, 1 1/2 or 1 3/4 baths, full brick on .80ac +/- 6x25 front porch overlooking Twin Lakes, 2 car carport, 19x12 concrete pad from previous shop. Private and peaceful setting that is only minutes away from hospital, shopping, restaurants and schools. See Documents for tax map with lot lines.

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New wiring
• New breaker box

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• NEW WIRING
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW BREAKER BOX
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.0% in Arab — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#149 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 14% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #86 of 129 in AL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 163 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.72%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,895
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -23.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
396 Maple Cir	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-4%)	4mo	$175,000	$159	62
137 Almond Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	17mo	$189,900	$158	52
100 Maple Cir	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,274 (+11%)	7mo	$215,000	$169	52
136 Briarwood Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,312 (+14%)	21mo	$185,000	$141	36
335 Maple Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	23mo	$260,000	$203	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,068
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $10,536
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35016

• Home prices YoY: -28.0%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,404 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $728/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,116

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 92 DOM
17. 2026-02-27
    listed $145,000 Active 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Fantastic location with a gorgeous lake view. Home was completely gutted and needs to be finished. New wiring, plumbing, breaker box, outside breaker, windows and roof have been completed. 2 or 3 bedrooms, 1 1/2 or 1 3/4 baths, full brick on .80ac +/- 6x25 front porch overlooking Twin Lakes, 2 car carport, 19x12 concrete pad from previous shop. Private and peaceful setting that is only minutes away from hospital, shopping, restaurants and schools. See Documents for tax map with lot lines.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $728 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $728 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$728
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,347
• − Management: −$1,347
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $355
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$85
• After-tax cash flow: $2,643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall County
• NCES district ID: 0100006
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,439
• Composite: 21.88/100
• National rank: #8234
• State rank: #86 of 129 in AL

Livability — Arab

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #13733

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 17,435
• Population (ZIP): 17,435

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,402 people
• By 2030: 98,138 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 98,502 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 97,024 · -0.4%
• By 2075: 89,334 · -8.3%
• By 2100: 74,749 · -23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.7) · D 13.8% · R 85.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: -56.4pp · 2024: -71.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.7 2020: R+68.7 2016: R+69.5 2012: R+60.1 2008: R+56.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.17%
• Current HPI: 180.2225
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $145,000 VMLS

Property tax history

+14.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $728 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.