7209 Prospect Ave · Warren, MI 48091

$94,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 795 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1942 5,663 sqft lot $119/sqft · 21% above area Est $79k · 21% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTORS SPECIAL Beautifully redone ranch on a large lot. Tenant occupied, freshly painted, refinished hardwood floors, two spacious bedrooms and updated bathroom. Exterior features include a large covered porch and fully fenced rear yard. DO NOT DISTURB TENANTS

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Large lot
• Freshly painted

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• COVERED PORCH
• FENCED REAR YARD
• FRESHLY PAINTED
• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 5.2% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities D, employment D.
• Van Dyke Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #512 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 16 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $95k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $86,359 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.19%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,657
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: 20.65%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7044 Westminster Ave	0.13mi	2/1.0	700 (-12%)	4mo	$103,000	$147	71
7084 Rivard Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0	698 (-12%)	3mo	$54,500	$78	62
7027 Chalmers Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (+13%)	3mo	$79,000	$88	61
8255 Meadow Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0	884 (+11%)	4mo	$82,000	$93	58
8249 Packard Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	871 (+10%)	1mo	$68,000	$78	53
8477 Prospect Ave	0.56mi	2/1.0	696 (-12%)	1mo	$90,000	$129	52
20225 Terrel St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	757 (-5%)	4mo	$43,000	$57	52
7204 Continental Ave	0.74mi	2/1.5	732 (-8%)	1mo	$82,500	$113	49
8284 Dodge Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	740 (-7%)	2mo	$100,000	$135	48
8454 Fisher Ave	0.59mi	1/1.0 (-1)	889 (+12%)	3mo	$106,000	$119	45
8251 Hudson Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	908 (+14%)	4mo	$84,000	$93	45
8701 Toepfer Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	720 (-9%)	3mo	$80,000	$111	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,062
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $20,001
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48091

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,265 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,306/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $923

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $324	-5% $297	+0% $270	+5% $243	+10% $216
Rent	-10% $170	-5% $220	+0% $270	+5% $320	+10% $370
Rate	-1.0pp $318	-0.5pp $294	base $270	+0.5pp $245	+1.0pp $220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7043 Meadow Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	911	$1,274	$1.40	44d	1	0.06mi
7060 Victory Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	945	$1,450	$1.53	12d	1	0.09mi
7033 Westminster Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	561	$1,050	$1.87	44d	1	0.13mi
7511 Toepfer Rd Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,199	$1.16	22d	1	0.14mi
7275 Chalmers Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	703	$1,200	$1.71	25d	1	0.18mi
8065 Meadow Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,050	$1.31	25d	1	0.27mi
7605 Jackson Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	600	$1,165	$1.94	25d	1	0.32mi
8162 Orchard Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	0.36mi
8036 Hupp Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	680	$1,150	$1.69	44d	1	0.43mi
8251 Hudson Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	908	$1,400	$1.54	25d	1	0.49mi
8242 Jackson Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	840	$1,198	$1.43	44d	1	0.52mi
8285 Rivard Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	902	$1,549	$1.72	25d	1	0.56mi
8640 Chalmers Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	804	$1,423	$1.77	25d	1	0.66mi
8632 Studebaker Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	761	$1,300	$1.71	3d	1	0.67mi
11076 Hudson Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	936	$1,395	$1.49	3d	1	0.87mi
21465 Syracuse Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	990	$1,375	$1.39	44d	1	0.87mi
8103 Lozier Ave Unit 2 Warren, MI	1.0	1.0	600	$650	$1.08	44d	1	0.90mi
8509 Paige Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	25d	1	0.90mi
11228 Sherman Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	13d	1	0.92mi
11236 Studebaker Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	672	$1,175	$1.75	44d	1	0.94mi
8212 Timken Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	756	$1,320	$1.75	25d	1	0.95mi
21410 Panama St Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	25d	1	0.96mi
8125 Timken Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	948	$1,270	$1.34	5d	1	0.96mi
19691 Cliff St #1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	5d	1	0.96mi
8693 Paige Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	25d	1	0.98mi
11319 Chalmers Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	975	$1,500	$1.54	25d	1	0.99mi
8636 Republic Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	15d	1	1.01mi
8428 Timken Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	860	$1,250	$1.45	25d	1	1.01mi
8707 Continental Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	968	$1,200	$1.24	18d	1	1.03mi
8707 Continental Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	5d	1	1.03mi
22622 Panama Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.5	920	$1,395	$1.52	11d	1	1.06mi
20263 Caldwell St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	909	$1,350	$1.49	17d	1	1.09mi
11359 Maxwell Ave Unit 11359 Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	4d	1	1.14mi
8716 Timken Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,400	$1.39	25d	1	1.14mi
20794 Audrey Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	954	$1,350	$1.42	44d	1	1.24mi
11331 Continental Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	765	$1,250	$1.63	25d	1	1.24mi
19415 Gable St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,373	$1.37	25d	1	1.31mi
19171 Cliff St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	17d	1	1.31mi
11130 Stephens Rd Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	0d	1	1.40mi
22580 Masch Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	988	$1,450	$1.47	25d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $94,900 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $94,900 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-02-19
    listed $94,900 Active 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    INVESTORS SPECIAL Beautifully redone ranch on a large lot. Tenant occupied, freshly painted, refinished hardwood floors, two spacious bedrooms and updated bathroom. Exterior features include a large covered porch and fully fenced rear yard. DO NOT DISTURB TENANTS

16. 2026-02-19
    listed $94,900 Active 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    INVESTORS SPECIAL Beautifully redone ranch on a large lot. Tenant occupied, freshly painted, refinished hardwood floors, two spacious bedrooms and updated bathroom. Exterior features include a large covered porch and fully fenced rear yard. DO NOT DISTURB TENANTS

17. 2026-02-19
    listed $94,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    INVESTORS SPECIAL Beautifully redone ranch on a large lot. Tenant occupied, freshly painted, refinished hardwood floors, two spacious bedrooms and updated bathroom. Exterior features include a large covered porch and fully fenced rear yard. DO NOT DISTURB TENANTS

18. 2024-10-14
    historical $1,100
19. 2024-10-02
    listed $1,100
20. 2024-09-26
    soldstatus $61,500
21. 2024-09-03
    soldstatus $61,500 Sold
22. 2024-09-03
    soldstatus $61,500 Closed
23. 2024-08-29
    status Pending
24. 2024-08-29
    status Pending
25. 2024-08-22
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
26. 2024-08-22
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
27. 2024-07-23
    listed $72,000 Active
28. 2024-07-23
    listed $72,000 Active
29. 2024-02-08
    historical
30. 2024-02-08
    historical
31. 2024-01-24
    listed $64,900 Active
32. 2024-01-24
    listed $64,900 Active
33. 2024-01-16
    historical
34. 2024-01-16
    historical
35. 2023-12-19
    listed $64,900 Active
36. 2023-12-19
    listed $64,900 Active
37. 2023-11-13
    historical
38. 2023-11-13
    historical
39. 2023-10-16
    listed $65,000 Active
40. 2023-10-16
    listed $65,000 Active
41. 2019-08-06
    historical
42. 2019-08-06
    historical
43. 2019-06-18
    listed $40,000 Active
44. 2019-06-18
    listed $40,000 Active
45. 1998-02-06
    soldstatus $29,900
46. 1997-11-12
    soldstatus $29,900
47. 1997-11-01
    historical
48. 1997-10-27
    listed $29,900
49. 1995-03-29
    soldstatus $23,000
50. 1995-02-24
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,306 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,306 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$2,306
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,214
• − Management: −$1,214
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $1,895
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$455
• After-tax cash flow: $2,786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Dyke Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634680
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,231
• Composite: 10.46/100
• National rank: #9784
• State rank: #512 of 540 in MI

Livability — Warren

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4491

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, MI
• County: Macomb County · 638,552 people
• City population: 114,937
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 30,696
• Household income: $54,230
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1296.0

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 25% Asian 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.66%
• Current HPI: 177.9273
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.35%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+266.4% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Listed $94,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $94,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-19 Listed $94,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-14 Rental Removed $1,100 APPFOLIO
• 2024-10-02 Listed for Rent $1,100 APPFOLIO
• 2024-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records
• 2024-09-03 Sold (MLS) $61,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-09-03 Sold (MLS) $61,500 REALCOMP
• 2024-08-29 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-29 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-08-22 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-22 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2024-07-23 Listed $72,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-23 Listed $72,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-02-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-02-08 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-01-24 Listed $64,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-24 Listed $64,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-01-16 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-16 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-12-19 Listed $64,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-12-19 Listed $64,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-11-13 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-13 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-10-16 Listed $65,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-16 Listed $65,000 REALCOMP
• 2019-08-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2019-08-06 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-06-18 Listed $40,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-06-18 Listed $40,000 REALCOMP
• 1998-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $29,900 Public Records
• 1997-11-12 Sold (MLS) $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1997-11-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1997-10-27 Listed $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1995-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records
• 1995-02-24 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1995-02-23 Sold (MLS) $23,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1995-01-24 Listed $25,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+14.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,306 · +145.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.