2202 NW 21st Ave · Cape Coral, FL 33993

$314,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,593 sqft · Land · 42 Days on market

Built 2026 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled within a peninsula formed by the Gulf of Mexico and the Caloosahatchee River, Christopher Alan Homes is building new homes on individual "spot lots" in two distinctive Cape Coral areas:South Cape Coral -The city with its picturesque downtownoriginated here, where the river and Gulf meet just south of Cape Coral Parkway. Two toll bridges south of Pine Island Road link Cape Coral to the mainland while canal-front homesites provide the quickest access to the Gulf. North Cape Coral - The city's fastest-growing region, Pine Island Road, is in the midst of an ambitious development plan and building boom, bringing residential, retail, restaurants, entertainment venues, commercial growth and jobs to hundreds of acres, including a 131-acre multipurpose outdoor town center. DRE# 175519667

Key facts

• New construction
• Walk-in closet
• Covered lanai

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN KITCHEN
• COVERED LANAI
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• RELAXING BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No association fee indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered garage spaces; Driveway; Paved parking; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Cable available; Septic tank; Well water
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry level: 1; Faces east; Under construction
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio and porch (open patio, porch); Room for pool; Security/high impact doors; West exposure; Rectangular lot; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Icemaker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator (with ice maker)
• Bedrooms: Guest quarters
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Cathedral ceilings; Dual sinks; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Living/dining room; Pantry; Shower only / separate shower; Walk-in pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Split bedrooms; Sliding and impact glass windows; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Dryer hookup inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $300k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.1% in Cape Coral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#208 in FL, #3,098 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Elementary School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 1,231 students, 38% FRL); Challenger Middle School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,124 students, 50% FRL); Ida S. Baker High School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,933 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 57% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 2671 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $315k implies a 708% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,507 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-63,490
• Equity at exit: $46,966

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-89,210
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33993

• Home prices YoY: -14.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 2671
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,325 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $886/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,435

Max offer price $299,696

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $3	+0% $-87	+5% $-176	+10% $-265
Rent	-10% $-270	-5% $-178	+0% $-87	+5% $5	+10% $97
Rate	-1.0pp $72	-0.5pp $-6	base $-87	+0.5pp $-168	+1.0pp $-251

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,748
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2152 NW 22nd Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,550	$1.80	13d	1	0.19mi
2105 NW 22nd Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,265	$1.24	16d	1	0.23mi
2423 NW 19th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1829	$1,761	$0.96	12d	1	0.30mi
2124 NW 18th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1556	$2,000	$1.29	21d	1	0.40mi
1903 NW 22nd Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,200	$1.11	26d	1	0.43mi
2206 NW 17th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1779	$2,075	$1.17	26d	1	0.43mi
1821 NW 23rd Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1876	$1,856	$0.99	16d	1	0.53mi
1907 NW 26th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1842	$2,200	$1.19	16d	1	0.53mi
2216 NW 18th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,816	$1.17	16d	1	0.57mi
2001 NW 25th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1887	$2,500	$1.32	26d	1	0.57mi
1823 NW 19th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1712	$1,850	$1.08	26d	1	0.58mi
2507 NW 25th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1842	$2,200	$1.19	16d	1	0.59mi
2511 NW 25th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1842	$2,200	$1.19	16d	1	0.60mi
2538 NW 24th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1565	$1,950	$1.25	5d	1	0.61mi
2630 NW 23rd Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,299	$1.52	26d	1	0.63mi
1719 NW 25th Ln Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,291	$1.25	5d	1	0.64mi
2014 NW 16th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1712	$1,701	$0.99	16d	1	0.64mi
1818 NW 27th Ter Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1665	$1,975	$1.19	5d	1	0.68mi
1809 NW 17th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,980	$1.13	26d	1	0.71mi
2302 NW 27th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	2136	$1,691	$0.79	23d	1	0.73mi
2329 NW 27th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1761	$2,300	$1.31	18d	1	0.74mi
2824 NW 23rd Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,641	$1.12	23d	1	0.79mi
2027 NW 17th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,450	$1.23	26d	1	0.80mi
2838 NW 19th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,845	$1.12	26d	1	0.81mi
1431 NW 20th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	2052	$1,775	$0.87	21d	1	0.82mi
2837 NW 24th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1286	$4,470	$3.48	26d	1	0.84mi
1427 NW 20th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,895	$1.17	18d	1	0.85mi
2901 NW 18th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,190	$1.41	15d	1	0.87mi
1822 Diplomat Pkwy W Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,145	$1.20	26d	1	0.94mi
1818 Diplomat Pkwy W Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,025	$1.13	26d	1	0.94mi
2800 NW 25th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,000	$1.36	5d	1	0.98mi
2812 NW 25th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1657	$1,950	$1.18	26d	1	1.00mi
2837 NW 27th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,691	$1.20	5d	1	1.07mi
1823 NW 31st St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,950	$1.38	5d	1	1.09mi
1840 NW 14th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1994	$1,871	$0.94	5d	1	1.12mi
1926 NW 15th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,100	$1.44	12d	1	1.12mi
1731 NW 14th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1337	$1,866	$1.40	5d	1	1.17mi
1917 NW 12th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$2,200	$1.44	26d	1	1.20mi
2227 NW 11th Ct Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,895	$1.15	26d	1	1.20mi
1243 NW 22nd Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1274	$2,195	$1.72	16d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $314,990 Active 807-char remark

   Show marketing remark (807 chars)

   Nestled within a peninsula formed by the Gulf of Mexico and the Caloosahatchee River, Christopher Alan Homes is building new homes on individual "spot lots" in two distinctive Cape Coral areas:South Cape Coral -The city with its picturesque downtownoriginated here, where the river and Gulf meet just south of Cape Coral Parkway. Two toll bridges south of Pine Island Road link Cape Coral to the mainland while canal-front homesites provide the quickest access to the Gulf. North Cape Coral - The city's fastest-growing region, Pine Island Road, is in the midst of an ambitious development plan and building boom, bringing residential, retail, restaurants, entertainment venues, commercial growth and jobs to hundreds of acres, including a 131-acre multipurpose outdoor town center. DRE# 175519667

3. 2026-03-25
   listed $314,990 Active
4. 2025-11-24
   soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $886 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,614 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,728/yr (+$144/mo · 195.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,901
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,644
• − Property taxes: −$886
• − Insurance: −$2,372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,232
• − Management: −$2,232
• − Depreciation: −$9,163
• Taxable loss: −$6,629
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,591
• After-tax cash flow: $552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cape Coral

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #3098

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cape Coral, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 217,388
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,580
• Household income: $90,577
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 286.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 21% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 17% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.34%
• Current HPI: 337.0575
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.51%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+707.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $314,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Listed $314,990 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $886 · +14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.