307 Dale Dr · Victor, NY 14425

$34,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 93 Days on market

Built 1984 Est $70k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 307 Dale Drive, located in the desirable Hunt’s Community. This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers comfortable, easy living with wheelchair accessibility, making it a great option for those looking for convenience and functionality. The home features a practical layout with bright living spaces, a functional kitchen, and two nicely sized bedrooms. Accessibility features help make daily living easier while still maintaining a warm and inviting feel. Situated in a quiet community setting, this property offers low-maintenance living while still being conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, and dining.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Conveniently located
• Built 1984

Tags

• WHEELCHAIR ACCESSIBILITY
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• QUIET COMMUNITY SETTING
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $32k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 53.0% vs local median 2.6% in Victor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in NY, #1,991 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Victor Central School District (suburban): math 56% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #222 of 590 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $241 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $31,759 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 53.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 166.94%
• DSCR: 8.43
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $69,580
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 Dale Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	980 (0%)	0mo	$30,000	$31	100
229 Marlette Dr	0.12mi	2/1.0	980 (0%)	21mo	$22,500	$23	77
118 Hunts Park Rd	0.06mi	2/2.0	980 (0%)	22mo	$30,000	$31	75
6367 Lambert St Unit B100	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	924 (-6%)	12mo	$47,000	$51	59
6374 Lambert St	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,064 (+9%)	8mo	$55,000	$52	58
6382 Murphy Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	896 (-9%)	8mo	$63,900	$71	53
6360 Murphy Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (0%)	24mo	$113,000	$115	52
6426 Francis Drive # 126	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+8%)	10mo	$121,220	$115	47
6376 Murphy Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	840 (-14%)	15mo	$70,000	$83	35
996 Gypsum Mills St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+14%)	23mo	$100,000	$89	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.28×
• Total profit: $80,957
• Equity at exit: $5,204

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.64×
• Total profit: $182,107
• Equity at exit: $3,018

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14425

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $524/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $1,359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $305

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 28%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,384	-5% $1,371	+0% $1,359	+5% $1,347	+10% $1,335
Rent	-10% $1,199	-5% $1,279	+0% $1,359	+5% $1,439	+10% $1,519
Rate	-1.0pp $1,377	-0.5pp $1,368	base $1,359	+0.5pp $1,350	+1.0pp $1,341

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6141 Cedar Creek Way Farmington, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1272	$2,122	$1.67	3d	17	0.29mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $34,900 Pending 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,900 Active Under Contract 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,900 Active Under Contract 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $34,900 Active Under Contract 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $34,900 Active Under Contract 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $34,900 Active Under Contract 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $34,900 Active Under Contract 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $34,900 Active Under Contract 85 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $34,900 Active Under Contract 84 DOM
10. 2026-04-20
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2026-03-06
    listed $34,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$524
• − Insurance: −$174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $16,755
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,021
• After-tax cash flow: $12,292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629640
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $73,046
• Composite: 52.43/100
• National rank: #1575
• State rank: #222 of 590 in NY

Livability — Victor

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #1991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ontario County · 58,989 people
• City population: 16,364
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 13,839
• Household income: $94,609
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 257.0

Population outlook (Ontario County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,230 people
• By 2030: 111,401 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 109,535 · -1.5%
• By 2050: 104,895 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 92,999 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 73,723 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ontario

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 50.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -1.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.2 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.6 2012: R+1.6 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.59%
• Current HPI: 267.0192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $34,900 UNYREIS