179 Old Lyme Dr #7 · University at Buffalo, NY 14221

$179,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · Condo public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1966 $166/sqft · 11% above area Est $162k · 11% over $410/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 179 Old Lyme #7 in the Lamplighter Condominium Community. This unit is a move in ready 2 bedroom 2 full bathroom 2nd floor condo unit conveniently located to all this wonderful community has to offer! Walk through the front door where you will find the spacious living room which opens right into the formal dining room area both of which feature luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The beautiful kitchen features stainless steel appliances, tile backsplash, and tons of cabinet / counter space. The full bathroom features tile floor, tile walls, tub and tile surround. The first bedroom features lvp floors, great space, ample closet space, fresh paint, and plenty of natural light.

Key facts

• Double storage room
• En-suite bathroom
• Tile backsplash

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• DOUBLE STORAGE ROOM
• DESIGNATED WASHER AND DRYER
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Advanced Property; Monthly association fee of $410; Association fee covers common area maintenance, common areas, insurance, sewer, snow removal, trash and water

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking (two spaces), no garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story property; Resale condition
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Copper and PEX plumbing
• Exterior features: Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and electric range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Tile; Luxury vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Open living/dining area; Storage space; Solid surface counters; Primary suite with bath in primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level; Main level primary
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in the basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($421/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.8% in University at Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#9 in NY, #176 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D+, employment F.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $142k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $174,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.84%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,469
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: 10.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-22,397
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,640
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,069 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,050/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$410
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,024

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $137	-5% $86	+0% $35	+5% $-16	+10% $-67
Rent	-10% $-128	-5% $-47	+0% $35	+5% $117	+10% $199
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $81	base $35	+0.5pp $-11	+1.0pp $-59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1325 N Forest Rd Buffalo, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0	870	$1,748	$2.01	2d	9	0.33mi
116 Segsbury Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,950	$1.98	24d	1	0.69mi
990 Hopkins Rd Unit G Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	11d	1	1.01mi
540 Mill St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1300	$2,095	$1.61	2d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $410 · $4,920/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,900 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $179,900 Active 1350-char remark
16. 2025-12-31
    historical
17. 2025-10-20
    listed $179,900 Active
18. 2025-10-20
    historical
19. 2025-09-15
    listed $179,900 Active
20. 2023-07-21
    soldstatus $142,500 Closed Sale or Rented
21. 2023-07-21
    soldstatus $142,500
22. 2023-07-10
    status Pending Sale
23. 2023-05-12
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
24. 2023-05-05
    listed $134,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,545 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$495/yr (+$41/mo · 24.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,050
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,986
• − Management: −$1,986
• − HOA: −$4,920
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,327
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$558
• After-tax cash flow: $980/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631470
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,907
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #678
• State rank: #114 of 590 in NY

Livability — University at Buffalo

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #176

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 5,827
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+33.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $179,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $179,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $179,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $142,500 Public Records
• 2023-07-21 Sold (MLS) $142,500 WNYREIS
• 2023-07-10 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-05-12 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-05-05 Listed $134,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,050 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.