98 Buffalo Orchard Trl · Bozeman, MT 59715

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured · 3 Days on market

Built 2025 $715/mo HOA · 31% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Split floor plan
• Primary suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• QUALITY FINISHES
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• HEART OF BOZEMAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From Oak Street: South on North 17th, left on Buffalo Orchard Trail, home is on the right
• Financial info: Land is leased; Annual tax amount $723
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present; Monthly association fee of $715; Association amenities include playground and park; Association fee includes snow removal

Exterior

• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Residential property
• Construction: Other foundation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.0% in Bozeman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#1 in MT, #537 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D-.
• Bozeman Elementary (town): math 56% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #7 of 116 in MT (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 309 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,706 units permitted in Gallatin County in 2024 (533 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gallatin County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.69%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $87,780
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
132 Buffalo Orchard Trl	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (+12%)	9mo	$99,000	$77	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-24,241
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-36,306
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59715

• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 309
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,336 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$715
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,217

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $146	+0% $94	+5% $42	+10% $-10
Rent	-10% $-90	-5% $2	+0% $94	+5% $186	+10% $279
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $132	base $94	+0.5pp $55	+1.0pp $16

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
603 Emily Dr Bozeman, MT	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$2,384	$2.22	22d	3	0.40mi
1062 W Oak St Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0	868	$1,900	$2.19	22d	2	0.42mi
811 W Villard St Unit 60 Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0	865	$1,600	$1.85	22d	1	0.65mi
1481 N 25th Ave Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0–2.0	887	$2,050	$2.31	22d	21	0.68mi
807 W Villard St Unit 13 Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0	865	$1,700	$1.97	22d	1	0.68mi
2235 Tschache Ln Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0–2.0	788	$2,195	$2.78	22d	9	0.70mi
303 N 9th Ave Unit 307 Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0	1193	$1,900	$1.59	22d	1	0.72mi
1810 N 25th Ave Bozeman, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1188	$8,250	$6.94	22d	210	0.72mi
1624 W Babcock St Bozeman, MT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$2,465	$2.37	22d	6	0.84mi
2130 S 18th Ave Bozeman, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1438	$4,140	$2.88	22d	28	0.90mi
151 S 11th Ave Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0	734	$2,250	$3.07	22d	1	0.93mi
106 Sunlight Ave Bozeman, MT	3.0	2.0	960	$2,100	$2.19	22d	1	0.93mi
209 S 19th Ave Unit 1 Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,100	$2.10	22d	1	0.94mi
818 W Babcock St Bozeman, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$5,195	$5.18	22d	8	0.95mi
109 Meghans Way Bozeman, MT	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,500	$3.18	22d	1	0.97mi
2307 W Main St Bozeman, MT	1.0–2.0	1.0	669	$1,650	$2.47	22d	9	0.98mi
304 S 20th Ave Bozeman, MT	3.0	1.0	1500	$2,300	$1.53	22d	1	0.99mi
406 S 20th Ave Unit A Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,750	$1.67	22d	1	1.07mi
2710 Sartain St Unit 303A Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.5	802	$1,850	$2.31	22d	1	1.08mi
111 W Lamme St Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$3,100	$3.08	22d	10	1.13mi
3657 Laduke St Bozeman, MT	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	22d	1	1.36mi
120 S Black Ave Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0	1071	$1,850	$1.73	22d	1	1.43mi
110 E Olive St Unit 402 Black Olive Bozeman, MT	2.0	2.0	1051	$2,825	$2.69	22d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $715 · $8,580/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,243
• − Management: −$2,243
• − HOA: −$8,580
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$795
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$191
• After-tax cash flow: $1,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bozeman Elementary
• NCES district ID: 3004560
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $51,664
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1635
• State rank: #7 of 116 in MT

Livability — Bozeman

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #537

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime D Employment B- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Gallatin County · 108,510 people
• City population: 84,228
• Metro: Bozeman, MT
• Population (ZIP): 39,643
• Household income: $88,407
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1884.0

Population outlook (Gallatin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 129,625 people
• By 2030: 144,940 · +11.8%
• By 2040: 176,266 · +36.0%
• By 2050: 209,250 · +61.4%
• By 2075: 294,207 · +127.0%
• By 2100: 360,558 · +178.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gallatin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 46.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 3.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.2 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+1.0 2012: R+5.3 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -410.90%
• Current HPI: 276.5017
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.20%
• Metro: Bozeman, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $150,000 MRMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $175,000 MRMLS