11149 Cambre Oaks Dr · Gonzales, LA 70737

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 8,276 sqft lot Est $259k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The RAEFORD III G in Cambre Oaks community offers a 3 bedroom, 2 full bathroom, open and split design. Upgrades, include a gas appliance package, upgraded cabinets throughout, and more! Special Features: double vanity and walk-in closet in the master suite, kitchen island, walk-in pantry, covered rear patio, recessed can lighting, granite counters, undermount kitchen sink, luxury vinyl plank flooring in the living room, halls, and all wet areas, ceiling fans in the living room and master bedroom, Honeywell Smart Connect WiFi thermostat, Tuscan bronze plumbing fixtures, smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, post tension slab, automatic garage door with 2 remotes.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Walk-in closet
• Covered rear patio

Tags

• GAS APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• DOUBLE VANITY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED REAR PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Cambre Oaks
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with maintenance included; Annual HOA fee of $500 (approximately $41.67/month)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; Garage with opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by unknown builder
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Level lot; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Tankless water heater; Wood flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-669/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Gonzales — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#135 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gonzales Primary School (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #321 of 646 statewide, top 50%, 526 students, 76% FRL); Gonzales Middle School (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #139 of 218 statewide, top 64%, 781 students, 69% FRL); East Ascension High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #43 of 265 statewide, top 16%, 2,098 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 44% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 53% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ascension Parish average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 571 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $204,150 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,597
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
628 S Oleana Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,436 (-2%)	0mo	$240,000	$167	69
1316 West Amber St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,525 (+4%)	1mo	$269,500	$177	66
1033 S Darla Ave	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,398 (-4%)	1mo	$205,000	$147	64
926 Meadow Crossing Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-2%)	2mo	$273,865	$192	62
926 Meadow Crossing Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-2%)	2mo	$273,865	$192	62
1492 Marlena Meadows Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+6%)	2mo	$274,900	$177	61
1279 West Amber St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+6%)	2mo	$274,900	$177	61
1315 West Amber St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+6%)	4mo	$274,900	$177	60
1381 Marlena Meadows Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+6%)	5mo	$228,000	$147	56
1460 Meadow Crossing Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-8%)	6mo	$239,000	$178	52
1614 W Cocodrie Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+7%)	7mo	$245,000	$157	51
560 S Ida Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,251 (-14%)	4mo	$239,000	$191	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-43,513
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-40,273
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70737

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 571
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,042 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,543/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,112

Max offer price $240,056

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $86	-5% $15	+0% $-56	+5% $-126	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-217	-5% $-136	+0% $-56	+5% $25	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $8	base $-56	+0.5pp $-120	+1.0pp $-186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39511 Auster Ln Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,150	$1.47	16d	1	0.04mi
12375 E Landry Rd Unit 20 Gonzales, LA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,193	$0.99	45d	1	0.79mi
38510 Maidens Blush St Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,200	$1.55	45d	1	0.97mi
2009 S Veterans Blvd Gonzales, LA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1191	$2,397	$2.01	16d	13	1.03mi
2137 S Commerce Ave #113 Gonzales, LA	3.0	3.0	1800	$1,650	$0.92	45d	1	1.04mi
2020 S Veterans Blvd Gonzales, LA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,653	$1.85	16d	14	1.07mi
1018 S Mire Ave Gonzales, LA	3.0	1.0	1106	$1,350	$1.22	45d	1	1.11mi
2419 W Orice Roth Rd Gonzales, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$1,613	$1.49	16d	19	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: gasinternet

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $249,900 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   remarks 669-char remark
4. 2026-06-07
   listed $249,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,543 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,543 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,543
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
• − Management: −$1,960
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,986
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,197
• After-tax cash flow: $528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern updates and a good curb appeal. It is move-in ready and would be a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Gonzales

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #12429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ascension Parish · 98,362 people
• City population: 49,084
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 49,084
• Household income: $82,521
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 863.0

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.49%
• Current HPI: 145.3384
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+10.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $249,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-06-05 Listed $249,900 GBRMLS
• 2022-02-08 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listed $225,610 AcadianaMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listed $225,610 GBRMLS

Property tax history

+49.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,543 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.