282 Elmhurst · Lakehills, TX 78063

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 706 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 306 Days on market

Built 1972 897 sqft lot $120/sqft · 15% below area Est $141k · 40% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

8 lots situated on a corner property. Site features two gate entrance - wide enough to accommodate a camper or RV. (measurements to be verified) Backyard has mature trees that provide privacy and plenty of shade. Could be nice for outdoor gatherings or for relaxing.

Key facts

• Shaded back yard
• Two gate entrances
• Listed 306 days

Tags

• TWO GATE ENTRANCES
• SHADED BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $548 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 2.2% in Lakehills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#963 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hill Country El (math 47% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 483 students, 62% FRL); Bandera Middle (math 26% / reading 40%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 555 students, 56% FRL); Bandera H S (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,632 statewide, top 62%, 713 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 271 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.61%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,131
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -39.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12151 Park Road 37	0.57mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (-1%)	8mo	$115,000	$164	60
224 Paradise	0.61mi	2/1.0	770 (+9%)	10mo	$130,000	$169	48
2552 Avenue M	0.48mi	2/1.0	792 (+12%)	20mo	$129,999	$164	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $21,100
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $63,278
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78063

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,392 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $851/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $548

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $596	-5% $572	+0% $548	+5% $524	+10% $499
Rent	-10% $438	-5% $493	+0% $548	+5% $603	+10% $658
Rate	-1.0pp $590	-0.5pp $569	base $548	+0.5pp $526	+1.0pp $503

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 306 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 303 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 302 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 301 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 300 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 298 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 294 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 292 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 289 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 288 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 287 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 286 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 285 DOM
14. 2026-02-01
    price $85,000 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    8 lots situated on a corner property. Site features two gate entrance - wide enough to accommodate a camper or RV. (measurements to be verified) Backyard has mature trees that provide privacy and plenty of shade. Could be nice for outdoor gatherings or for relaxing.

15. 2025-12-30
    price $109,000 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    8 lots situated on a corner property. Site features two gate entrance - wide enough to accommodate a camper or RV. (measurements to be verified) Backyard has mature trees that provide privacy and plenty of shade. Could be nice for outdoor gatherings or for relaxing.

16. 2025-11-06
    price $114,000 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    8 lots situated on a corner property. Site features two gate entrance - wide enough to accommodate a camper or RV. (measurements to be verified) Backyard has mature trees that provide privacy and plenty of shade. Could be nice for outdoor gatherings or for relaxing.

17. 2025-09-23
    price $119,500 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    8 lots situated on a corner property. Site features two gate entrance - wide enough to accommodate a camper or RV. (measurements to be verified) Backyard has mature trees that provide privacy and plenty of shade. Could be nice for outdoor gatherings or for relaxing.

18. 2025-09-08
    price $129,500 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    8 lots situated on a corner property. Site features two gate entrance - wide enough to accommodate a camper or RV. (measurements to be verified) Backyard has mature trees that provide privacy and plenty of shade. Could be nice for outdoor gatherings or for relaxing.

19. 2025-08-19
    listed $135,000 New 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    8 lots situated on a corner property. Site features two gate entrance - wide enough to accommodate a camper or RV. (measurements to be verified) Backyard has mature trees that provide privacy and plenty of shade. Could be nice for outdoor gatherings or for relaxing.

20. 2010-06-21
    historical
21. 2009-03-09
    listed $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $851 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$705/yr (+$59/mo · 82.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$851
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,336
• − Management: −$1,336
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $5,521
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,325
• After-tax cash flow: $5,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bandera ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809360
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,771
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6194
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakehills

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #963
• US rank: #17024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakehills, TX
• City population: 10,594
• Population (ZIP): 10,594

Population outlook (Bandera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,614 people
• By 2030: 23,102 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 23,489 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 23,264 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 23,607 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 22,265 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bandera

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.6% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -50.4pp · 2024: -61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+59.4 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+59.0 2008: R+50.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.38%
• Current HPI: 189.1086
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+113.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $85,000 LERA
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $109,000 LERA
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $114,000 LERA
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $119,500 LERA
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $129,500 LERA
• 2025-08-19 Listed $135,000 LERA
• 2010-06-21 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2009-03-09 Listed $39,900 LERA

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $851 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.