1209 W Elliott St · Breckenridge, TX 76424

$64,600

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,396 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

0.26 ac lot $46/sqft · 59% below area ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quiet small town living in Breckenridge, TX! This cute as can be traditional cottage style home features three bedrooms, one and half baths, spacious country kitchen with island opening to a generous living area, large, covered porch-patio overlooks a spacious backyard. To be sold strictly as-is-bring your decorating ideas, schedule your private showing and make this your dream home or rental investment today!

Key facts

• Large covered porch
• Spacious backyard
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS COUNTRY KITCHEN
• LARGE COVERED PORCH
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $546 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 3.6% in Breckenridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#695 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Breckenridge ISD (town): math 36% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #551 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2 units permitted in Stephens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($447 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Stephens County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,848 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.23%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,787
• List price: $64,600
• Delta: -59.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
723 Mistletoe St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,413 (+1%)	5mo	$139,500	$99	83
1315 Hunters Glen St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	11mo	$165,000	$115	71
721 Mistletoe St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+15%)	4mo	$185,000	$115	62
718 Mistletoe St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,333 (-4%)	21mo	$229,900	$172	61
704 Renee St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-15%)	11mo	$179,000	$150	59
1308 W Dyer St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,226 (-12%)	2mo	$169,000	$138	57
123 Sunset Blvd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+1%)	22mo	$89,995	$64	49
710 W Wheeler St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,589 (+14%)	9mo	$79,500	$50	48
605 S Miller St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,558 (+12%)	8mo	$189,000	$121	44
1201 W Dyer St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+11%)	23mo	$179,000	$115	42
307 S Mcamis St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+12%)	14mo	$219,500	$140	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $38,601
• Equity at exit: $24,790

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $93,972
• Equity at exit: $35,176

Cash invested: $18,088 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76424

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,302 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$339
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,398/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $546

Break-even live

Break-even rent $610

Max offer price $64,600

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,150
• Closing costs: $1,938
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1800 W Elliott St Breckenridge, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$988	$1.22	13d	1	0.54mi
901 N Parks St Breckenridge, TX	4.0	1.5	1810	$1,500	$0.83	21d	1	0.90mi
901 N Parks St Breckenridge, TX	4.0	1.5	1810	$1,500	$0.83	13d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $64,600 Pending 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,600 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,600 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $64,600 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,000 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $76,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $76,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $76,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $76,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $76,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $76,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $76,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $76,000 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $111,600 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $111,600 Active 106 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    price $111,600 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Quiet small town living in Breckenridge, TX! This cute as can be traditional cottage style home features three bedrooms, one and half baths, spacious country kitchen with island opening to a generous living area, large, covered porch-patio overlooks a spacious backyard. To be sold strictly as-is-bring your decorating ideas, schedule your private showing and make this your dream home or rental investment today!

18. 2026-03-18
    price $117,800 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Quiet small town living in Breckenridge, TX! This cute as can be traditional cottage style home features three bedrooms, one and half baths, spacious country kitchen with island opening to a generous living area, large, covered porch-patio overlooks a spacious backyard. To be sold strictly as-is-bring your decorating ideas, schedule your private showing and make this your dream home or rental investment today!

19. 2026-02-13
    listed $124,000 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Quiet small town living in Breckenridge, TX! This cute as can be traditional cottage style home features three bedrooms, one and half baths, spacious country kitchen with island opening to a generous living area, large, covered porch-patio overlooks a spacious backyard. To be sold strictly as-is-bring your decorating ideas, schedule your private showing and make this your dream home or rental investment today!

20. 2022-12-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,398 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,398 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,619
• − Property taxes: −$1,398
• − Insurance: −$323
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,250
• − Management: −$1,250
• − Depreciation: −$1,879
• Taxable income: $5,901
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,416
• After-tax cash flow: $5,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Breckenridge ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811220
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,744
• Composite: 28.66/100
• National rank: #6700
• State rank: #551 of 826 in TX

Livability — Breckenridge

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #695
• US rank: #12987

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Breckenridge, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,626

Population outlook (Stephens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,625 people
• By 2030: 11,029 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 11,827 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 12,609 · +18.7%
• By 2075: 13,855 · +30.4%
• By 2100: 13,067 · +23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Stephens

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.3) · D 10.2% · R 89.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -63.6pp · 2024: -79.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.3 2020: R+78.6 2016: R+77.8 2012: R+70.9 2008: R+63.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.80%
• Current HPI: 110.8496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $111,600 NTREIS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $117,800 NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $124,000 NTREIS
• 2022-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,398 · -45.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.