4511 Redwood St · Jan Phyl Village, FL 33880

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1979 3,681 sqft lot $156/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable community of Oakwood Estates in Winter Haven. This home offers a peaceful, well-kept neighborhood with a welcoming atmosphere and a beautiful lake view to enjoy. Recent updates include new kitchen and bathroom flooring, new windows, and new interior and exterior doors, along with a roof that is approximately 5 years old, offering added value and peace of mind. No lot rent—ownership includes the land, with only a low monthly HOA fee. Oakwood Estates is a gated 55+ community offering resort-style amenities including clubhouses, heated pools, fitness center, shuffleboard, tennis courts, and a full calendar of

Key facts

• New exterior doors
• Lake view
• New kitchen flooring

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• NEW KITCHEN FLOORING
• NEW BATHROOM FLOORING
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW INTERIOR DOORS
• NEW EXTERIOR DOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Total living area approximately 1,152 square feet
• HOA & community: Located in Oakwood Estates association; Monthly HOA fee of $156.32; Association amenities include pool, fitness center, tennis courts, private road, security, and trash; Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Security: Community security (included in association amenities)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as manufactured home (double wide)
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access; Lake view

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Central vacuum; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Outdoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#769 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.39%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,590
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $18,607
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,541 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,584/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$156
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,189

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
449 Red Hawk Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,581	$1.43	3d	1	0.74mi
3320 Timberline Rd W Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,735	$1.32	3d	1	0.90mi
3039 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,175	$1.36	3d	1	0.91mi
3074 St Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	860	$1,149	$1.34	14d	1	0.92mi
3062 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,323	$1.20	3d	1	0.94mi
3060 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	762	$1,373	$1.80	23d	1	0.94mi
108 Brad Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,720	$1.30	23d	1	1.04mi
1059 Spirit Lake Rd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,378	$1.53	23d	1	1.04mi
267 Lake Thomas Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,800	$1.74	23d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $156 · $1,872/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-04-26
    status Active
16. 2026-04-21
    status Pending
17. 2026-03-25
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,584 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,584 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,497
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,584
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,480
• − Management: −$1,480
• − HOA: −$1,872
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $1,719
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$413
• After-tax cash flow: $2,932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jan Phyl Village

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #769
• US rank: #17294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+19.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,584 · +14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.