2199 Illinois St · New Fairview, TX 76078

$350,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,730 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1965 1.00 ac lot $202/sqft · 30% below area Est $627k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the tranquility of country living in this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence set on 1 acre in New Fairview, TX, with the opportunity to purchase additional acreage and frontage up to 29 acres. Offering the perfect blend of seclusion and accessibility, this property allows you to enjoy wide-open spaces whil remaining conveniently close to the Metroplex. The home boasts a comfortable and functional layout, ideal fo full-time living or weekend getaways. With peaceful surroundings and room to grow, additional land is available at an additional cost, making this an excellent option for creating a larger homestead, increasing privacy, or investing for the future. Home is sold

Key facts

• Additional acreage
• Wide-open spaces
• 1 acre

Tags

• 1 ACRE
• ADDITIONAL ACREAGE
• WIDE-OPEN SPACES
• PEACEFUL SURROUNDINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential - Single Family Residence; Lot approximately 1.0 acre
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached driveway; Garage; Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Septic for sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Built in 1965
• Construction: Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Construction year: 1965
• Exterior features: Septic system; Will subdivide

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Double oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Propane); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Decorative lighting; One living area; One dining area; One-level layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-771 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (38.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (42.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (42.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.5% in New Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#901 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Justin El (math 40% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 605 students, 24% FRL); Gene Pike Middle (math 47% / reading 46%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,150 students, 29% FRL); Northwest H S (math 55% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 2,264 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,451 (42.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.44%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $627,237
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -44.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15335 Brock Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-13%)	6mo	$229,900	$153	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $141,536
• Equity at exit: $315,308

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.65×
• Total profit: $455,401
• Equity at exit: $679,973

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76078

• Home prices YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$389 /mo · $4,665/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-771

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,000

Max offer price $213,860

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-573	-5% $-672	+0% $-771	+5% $-870	+10% $-969
Rent	-10% $-931	-5% $-851	+0% $-771	+5% $-691	+10% $-611
Rate	-1.0pp $-594	-0.5pp $-682	base $-771	+0.5pp $-861	+1.0pp $-954

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $350,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $350,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $350,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $350,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $350,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-05-15
    price $350,000 706-char remark
12. 2026-05-13
    listed $405,000 Active 706-char remark
13. 2026-05-08
    historical
14. 2026-04-15
    listed $305,000 Active
15. 2026-04-07
    historical
16. 2026-04-06
    listed $2,200,000 Active
17. 2000-12-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,665 · $389/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,405 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,740/yr (+$145/mo · 37.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$4,665
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,944
• − Management: −$1,944
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$15,795
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,791
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Fairview

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #901
• US rank: #16172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Fairview, TX
• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• City population: 10,200
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,828
• Household income: $99,866
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 11% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.94%
• Current HPI: 325.22
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-84.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $350,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $405,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $305,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $2,200,000 NTREIS
• 2000-12-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-10.6%/yr

Latest (2014): $4,665 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.