1216 Sherwood Dr · Forward, PA 15037

$19,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2000 $13/sqft · 61% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offering 1,568 sq ft of living space in Elizabeth, PA. Located on a leased lot. Lot rent is $635/month. Property is in need of cosmetic repairs and includes 1–2 significant repair items, offering strong potential for renovation or value-add improvement. No known updates or renovations have been completed within the last 5 years.

Key facts

• Built 2000
• Listed 56 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $19,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$50,584) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $934 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Elizabeth Forward SD (suburban): math 41% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #136 of 539 in PA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: William Penn El Sch (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C, #504 of 1,518 statewide, top 37%, 341 students, 53% FRL); Elizabeth Forward Ms (math 28% / reading 63%, grade D+, #184 of 512 statewide, top 36%, 550 students, 44% FRL); Elizabeth Forward Shs (math 57%, 749 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 2,996 units permitted in Allegheny County in 2024 (1,588 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $597 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price.

Recommended offer $19,303 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 62.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 201.12%
• DSCR: 9.95
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,584
• List price: $19,900
• Delta: -60.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1258 Madison	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,425 (-9%)	7mo	$55,000	$39	74
2001 Pond Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-11%)	5mo	$175,000	$125	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.11×
• Total profit: $56,308
• Equity at exit: $2,967

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.58×
• Total profit: $125,839
• Equity at exit: $1,721

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15037

• Home prices YoY: -11.8%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,423 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $930/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $934

Break-even live

Break-even rent $241

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,000	-5% $940	+0% $934	+5% $928	+10% $923
Rent	-10% $821	-5% $878	+0% $934	+5% $990	+10% $1,046
Rate	-1.0pp $944	-0.5pp $939	base $934	+0.5pp $929	+1.0pp $923

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,900 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $19,900 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $19,900 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $19,900 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $19,900 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $19,900 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $19,900 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $19,900 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-04-24
   price $19,900 381-char remark

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offering 1,568 sq ft of living space in Elizabeth, PA. Located on a leased lot. Lot rent is $635/month. Property is in need of cosmetic repairs and includes 1–2 significant repair items, offering strong potential for renovation or value-add improvement. No known updates or renovations have been completed within the last 5 years.

10. 2026-04-20
    price $22,900 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offering 1,568 sq ft of living space in Elizabeth, PA. Located on a leased lot. Lot rent is $635/month. Property is in need of cosmetic repairs and includes 1–2 significant repair items, offering strong potential for renovation or value-add improvement. No known updates or renovations have been completed within the last 5 years.

11. 2026-04-14
    listed $24,900 Active 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offering 1,568 sq ft of living space in Elizabeth, PA. Located on a leased lot. Lot rent is $635/month. Property is in need of cosmetic repairs and includes 1–2 significant repair items, offering strong potential for renovation or value-add improvement. No known updates or renovations have been completed within the last 5 years.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $930 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $930 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$930
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,366
• − Management: −$1,366
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $11,619
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,789
• After-tax cash flow: $8,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elizabeth Forward SD
• NCES district ID: 4209090
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,344
• Composite: 45.5/100
• National rank: #2611
• State rank: #136 of 539 in PA

Livability — Forward

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,412

Population outlook (Allegheny County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,250,282 people
• By 2030: 1,256,482 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 1,256,318 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 1,244,169 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 1,197,693 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 1,093,187 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 6% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, India
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegheny

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.3) · D 59.7% · R 39.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.8pp toward D · 2008: 15.5pp · 2024: 20.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.3 2020: D+20.4 2016: D+16.4 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.61%
• Current HPI: 266.2418
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-20.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $19,900 West Penn MLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $22,900 West Penn MLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $24,900 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $930 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.