519 Florence Ave · Grand Junction, CO 81504

$160,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 788 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1928 10,454 sqft lot Est $281k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom 1 full bath Newly remodeled house with new carpet , new linoleum , new paint inside and out, new kitchen. New bathroom. Newer roof and newer furnace large lot with irrigation water . Large shade trees and grass Front and back yard No homeowners association / no covenants. Great house on quiet street

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1928
• Listed 3 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.1% in Grand Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#15 in CO, #2,222 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fruitvale Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #568 of 966 statewide, top 60%, 412 students, 59% FRL); Bookcliff Middle School (math 18% / reading 26%, grade F, #188 of 270 statewide, top 72%, 449 students, 59% FRL); Central High School (math 19% / reading 43%, grade F, #229 of 381 statewide, top 60%, 1,613 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 39% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.58%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $280,528
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
525 30 Rd	0.11mi	2/1.0	786 (-0%)	6mo	$280,000	$356	89
517 1/2 Florence Rd	0.02mi	1/1.0 (-1)	806 (+2%)	13mo	$277,500	$344	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,638
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $17,671
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81504

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,602 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $919/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,243

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
541-529 E 1/2 Rd Grand Junction, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0	687	$1,510	$2.20	13d	1	0.49mi
2961 1/2 Cedar Pl Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	720	$1,250	$1.74	21d	1	0.51mi
451 Davis Rd Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	1102	$1,400	$1.27	21d	1	0.88mi
2909 Dawn Dr Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.5	950	$1,650	$1.74	21d	1	0.91mi
2907 Dawn Dr Grand Junction, CO	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,650	$1.65	13d	1	0.93mi
2907 Dawn Dr Unit 4 Grand Junction, CO	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,650	$1.65	21d	1	0.93mi
568 Dawn Ct Unit 1 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	1038	$1,100	$1.06	13d	1	0.94mi
2855 Elm Cir Unit 35 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,050	$1.25	21d	1	1.32mi
521 28 1/2 Rd Grand Junction, CO	3.0	1.0	1040	$2,100	$2.02	21d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   listed $160,000 Active
3. 2019-11-21
   soldstatus $143,900 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   2 bedroom 1 full bath Newly remodeled house with new carpet , new linoleum , new paint inside and out, new kitchen. New bathroom. Newer roof and newer furnace large lot with irrigation water . Large shade trees and grass Front and back yard No homeowners association / no covenants. Great house on quiet street

4. 2019-08-28
   listed $139,900 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   2 bedroom 1 full bath Newly remodeled house with new carpet , new linoleum , new paint inside and out, new kitchen. New bathroom. Newer roof and newer furnace large lot with irrigation water . Large shade trees and grass Front and back yard No homeowners association / no covenants. Great house on quiet street

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $919 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $919 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$919
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,538
• − Management: −$1,538
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $807
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$194
• After-tax cash flow: $3,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesa County Valley School District No. 51
• NCES district ID: 0804350
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,189
• Composite: 27.83/100
• National rank: #6884
• State rank: #43 of 86 in CO

Livability — Grand Junction

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #2222

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mesa County · 143,088 people
• City population: 113,583
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• Population (ZIP): 32,376
• Household income: $70,958
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 808.0

Population outlook (Mesa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,000 people
• By 2030: 154,479 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 155,257 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 153,384 · +0.3%
• By 2075: 144,735 · -5.4%
• By 2100: 123,825 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Mesa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.3) · D 36.6% · R 61.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -29.5pp · 2024: -24.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.3 2020: R+28.0 2016: R+36.3 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+29.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.40%
• Current HPI: 309.0092
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.20%
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+14.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — GJARA
• 2026-04-17 Listed $160,000 GJARA
• 2019-11-21 Sold (MLS) $143,900 GJARA
• 2019-08-28 Listed $139,900 GJARA

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $919 · +97.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.