410 NW Oakwood Dr · Milledgeville, GA 31061

$159,900

3 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 2024 2,178 sqft lot $102/sqft · 42% below area Est $276k · 42% under $68/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully designed townhome built in 2024 offering 1560 sq. ft. of modern, low-maintenance living. This thoughtfully planned home features a two-level layout perfectly suited to today's lifestyle. The upper level includes three carpeted bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a conveniently located laundry area. The lower level showcases a spacious open-concept greatroom with a well appointed kitchen complete with stove/oven, microwave and dishwasher along with a half bath and one-car garage—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Located just minutes from historic Milledgeville, this home offers easy access to Lake Sinclair, Georgia College and State University, shopping, dining and entertainment with some restaurants and retail within a short distance. It's proximity to the college also presents excellent property management investment potential. Enjoy a prime location, modern construction and effortless living. Eligible buyers may be able to take advantage of no-down-payment options with VA or USDA financing. Some images in this listing have been virtually staged.

Key facts

• Two level layout
• $68 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• TWO LEVEL LAYOUT
• OPEN CONCEPT GREATROOM
• WELL APPOINTED KITCHEN
• EASY ACCESS TO LAKE SINCLAIR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.9% in Milledgeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#134 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities D+, schools F, crime F.
• Baldwin County (town): math 13% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #152 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 202 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,509 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.84%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,092
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -42.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 Oakwood Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,538 (-1%)	10mo	$260,000	$169	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-10,184
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $16,740
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31061

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,696 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,784/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,420

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
425 Oakwood Dr NW Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1538	$1,684	$1.09	43d	1	0.02mi
454 Oakwood Dr NW Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1538	$1,950	$1.27	43d	1	0.06mi
302 Oakwood Dr NW Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1538	$1,684	$1.09	43d	1	0.10mi
274 Oakwood Dr NW Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1538	$1,734	$1.13	43d	1	0.13mi
261 Oakwood Dr NW Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1538	$1,684	$1.09	43d	1	0.15mi
146 Cypress Oak Trl NW Milledgeville, GA	2.0	2.0	1351	$1,595	$1.18	43d	1	0.28mi
180 Milledge Commons Dr NE Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1381	$1,800	$1.30	43d	1	0.88mi
162 Milledge Commons Dr NE Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1381	$1,800	$1.30	43d	1	0.90mi
109 Milledge Commons Dr Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1895	$2,100	$1.11	43d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-20
   price $159,900 1089-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1089 chars)

   Beautifully designed townhome built in 2024 offering 1560 sq. ft. of modern, low-maintenance living. This thoughtfully planned home features a two-level layout perfectly suited to today's lifestyle. The upper level includes three carpeted bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a conveniently located laundry area. The lower level showcases a spacious open-concept greatroom with a well appointed kitchen complete with stove/oven, microwave and dishwasher along with a half bath and one-car garage—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Located just minutes from historic Milledgeville, this home offers easy access to Lake Sinclair, Georgia College and State University, shopping, dining and entertainment with some restaurants and retail within a short distance. It's proximity to the college also presents excellent property management investment potential. Enjoy a prime location, modern construction and effortless living. Eligible buyers may be able to take advantage of no-down-payment options with VA or USDA financing. Some images in this listing have been virtually staged.

2. 2026-03-07
   price $174,900 1089-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1089 chars)

   Beautifully designed townhome built in 2024 offering 1560 sq. ft. of modern, low-maintenance living. This thoughtfully planned home features a two-level layout perfectly suited to today's lifestyle. The upper level includes three carpeted bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a conveniently located laundry area. The lower level showcases a spacious open-concept greatroom with a well appointed kitchen complete with stove/oven, microwave and dishwasher along with a half bath and one-car garage—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Located just minutes from historic Milledgeville, this home offers easy access to Lake Sinclair, Georgia College and State University, shopping, dining and entertainment with some restaurants and retail within a short distance. It's proximity to the college also presents excellent property management investment potential. Enjoy a prime location, modern construction and effortless living. Eligible buyers may be able to take advantage of no-down-payment options with VA or USDA financing. Some images in this listing have been virtually staged.

3. 2026-01-29
   listed $184,500 Active 1089-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1089 chars)

   Beautifully designed townhome built in 2024 offering 1560 sq. ft. of modern, low-maintenance living. This thoughtfully planned home features a two-level layout perfectly suited to today's lifestyle. The upper level includes three carpeted bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a conveniently located laundry area. The lower level showcases a spacious open-concept greatroom with a well appointed kitchen complete with stove/oven, microwave and dishwasher along with a half bath and one-car garage—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Located just minutes from historic Milledgeville, this home offers easy access to Lake Sinclair, Georgia College and State University, shopping, dining and entertainment with some restaurants and retail within a short distance. It's proximity to the college also presents excellent property management investment potential. Enjoy a prime location, modern construction and effortless living. Eligible buyers may be able to take advantage of no-down-payment options with VA or USDA financing. Some images in this listing have been virtually staged.

4. 2024-01-16
   soldstatus $1,575,000
5. 2022-05-17
   soldstatus $1,397,500
6. 2022-05-17
   soldstatus $2,015,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,784
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,628
• − Management: −$1,628
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $87
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$21
• After-tax cash flow: $2,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 1300210
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,615
• Composite: 13.61/100
• National rank: #9508
• State rank: #152 of 174 in GA

Livability — Milledgeville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #9206

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 41,764 people
• City population: 41,764
• Metro: Milledgeville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,764
• Household income: $54,263
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1630.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,602 people
• By 2030: 45,481 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 44,310 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 42,129 · -7.6%
• By 2075: 36,819 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 29,320 · -35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 43% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 50.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.8pp toward R · 2008: 4.6pp · 2024: -2.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.2 2020: D+1.3 2016: D+1.7 2012: D+5.5 2008: D+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.16%
• Current HPI: 241.3758
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Milledgeville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-88.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $159,900 CGMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $174,900 CGMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $184,500 CGMLS
• 2024-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $1,575,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $2,015,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $1,397,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+46.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,784 · +1891.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.