14189 Shadow Bay Dr · Conroe, TX 77318

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1989 0.42 ac lot $115/sqft · 82% above area $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely remodeled, this stunning 3-bed, 2-bath home offers over 1,300 sqft of beautifully updated living space in a lake-access community on Lake Conroe! Enjoy peace of mind with upgrades already completed, including new PEX plumbing, new roof, new HVAC, new appliances, fully renovated bathrooms, and fresh interior and exterior paint. Every detail has been thoughtfully updated, making this home truly move-in ready. The open-concept floor plan creates a bright and inviting space that’s perfect for everyday living. Step outside to a huge front porch, ideal for relaxing mornings or evening gatherings. The property also features a generously sized lot (not in a flood zone) and a storage room for added convenience. Located in a community right on the lake, you’ll enjoy the lifestyle of boating, fishing, and waterfront recreation just minutes from your doorstep. This home offers the perfect combination of modern updates, outdoor space, and lake living. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• New pex plumbing
• New hvac
• New appliances

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS COMMUNITY
• NEW PEX PLUMBING
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• NEW APPLIANCES
• FULLY RENOVATED BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $534 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.75%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,000
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: 82.35%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13712 Lookout Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	5mo	$70,000	$61	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,883
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $23,142
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,058 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,317/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,383

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $621	-5% $578	+0% $534	+5% $490	+10% $446
Rent	-10% $371	-5% $452	+0% $534	+5% $615	+10% $696
Rate	-1.0pp $612	-0.5pp $573	base $534	+0.5pp $493	+1.0pp $453

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14156 Shadow Bay Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,195	$1.53	0d	1	0.18mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	4d	1	0.83mi
14210 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,850	$1.15	4d	1	0.84mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	44d	1	0.84mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	3d	1	1.35mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	1.35mi
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	44d	1	1.46mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	44d	1	1.47mi
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	44d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $155,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $168,990 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $168,990 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $168,990 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $168,990 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $168,990 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $168,990 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $168,990 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,990 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $177,000 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    Completely remodeled, this stunning 3-bed, 2-bath home offers over 1,300 sqft of beautifully updated living space in a lake-access community on Lake Conroe! Enjoy peace of mind with upgrades already completed, including new PEX plumbing, new roof, new HVAC, new appliances, fully renovated bathrooms, and fresh interior and exterior paint. Every detail has been thoughtfully updated, making this home truly move-in ready. The open-concept floor plan creates a bright and inviting space that’s perfect for everyday living. Step outside to a huge front porch, ideal for relaxing mornings or evening gatherings. The property also features a generously sized lot (not in a flood zone) and a storage room for added convenience. Located in a community right on the lake, you’ll enjoy the lifestyle of boating, fishing, and waterfront recreation just minutes from your doorstep. This home offers the perfect combination of modern updates, outdoor space, and lake living. Schedule your showing today!

16. 2026-04-15
    price $189,000 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    Completely remodeled, this stunning 3-bed, 2-bath home offers over 1,300 sqft of beautifully updated living space in a lake-access community on Lake Conroe! Enjoy peace of mind with upgrades already completed, including new PEX plumbing, new roof, new HVAC, new appliances, fully renovated bathrooms, and fresh interior and exterior paint. Every detail has been thoughtfully updated, making this home truly move-in ready. The open-concept floor plan creates a bright and inviting space that’s perfect for everyday living. Step outside to a huge front porch, ideal for relaxing mornings or evening gatherings. The property also features a generously sized lot (not in a flood zone) and a storage room for added convenience. Located in a community right on the lake, you’ll enjoy the lifestyle of boating, fishing, and waterfront recreation just minutes from your doorstep. This home offers the perfect combination of modern updates, outdoor space, and lake living. Schedule your showing today!

17. 2026-04-01
    listed $195,000 Active 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    Completely remodeled, this stunning 3-bed, 2-bath home offers over 1,300 sqft of beautifully updated living space in a lake-access community on Lake Conroe! Enjoy peace of mind with upgrades already completed, including new PEX plumbing, new roof, new HVAC, new appliances, fully renovated bathrooms, and fresh interior and exterior paint. Every detail has been thoughtfully updated, making this home truly move-in ready. The open-concept floor plan creates a bright and inviting space that’s perfect for everyday living. Step outside to a huge front porch, ideal for relaxing mornings or evening gatherings. The property also features a generously sized lot (not in a flood zone) and a storage room for added convenience. Located in a community right on the lake, you’ll enjoy the lifestyle of boating, fishing, and waterfront recreation just minutes from your doorstep. This home offers the perfect combination of modern updates, outdoor space, and lake living. Schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-03-30
    historical
19. 2026-02-19
    listed $195,000 Active
20. 2025-08-12
    soldstatus Closed
21. 2025-08-12
    soldstatus
22. 2025-08-12
    soldstatus
23. 2025-08-11
    soldstatus
24. 2025-07-30
    status Pending
25. 2025-07-21
    price $99,500
26. 2025-06-01
    listed $135,000 Active
27. 2025-06-01
    historical
28. 2025-03-25
    listed $139,000 Active
29. 2025-03-25
    historical
30. 2024-11-07
    listed $175,000 Active
31. 2024-06-13
    soldstatus
32. 2013-03-26
    soldstatus
33. 2010-12-03
    soldstatus
34. 2010-02-22
    soldstatus
35. 2009-10-23
    soldstatus
36. 2009-10-23
    soldstatus
37. 2009-10-21
    soldstatus
38. 2009-09-10
    historical
39. 2009-08-15
    listed $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,317 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$520/yr (+$43/mo · 22.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,317
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,976
• − Management: −$1,976
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $4,201
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,008
• After-tax cash flow: $5,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+343.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $177,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-08-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-08-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-07-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $99,500 HARMLS
• 2025-06-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-01 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Listed $139,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-07 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-02-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-10-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-10-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-10-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-09-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-08-15 Listed $39,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,317 · +72.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.