Birkdale Plan · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$261,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,154 sqft · Townhouse · 953 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Listed 953 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $261,999

Exterior

• Home design: Plan home named Birkdale; New construction plan
• Construction: Located in Ave Maria, FL
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,154

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: 2 total bathrooms

🏗️ New construction. The $261,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $303,502.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $262k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $756 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $262k).
• Recommended offer: $231k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,804/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $85k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 953 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,559 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 953 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.82%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,502
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5555 Double Eagle Cir #3935	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	1mo	$295,000	$263	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $24,586
• Equity at exit: $72,560

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $107,267
• Equity at exit: $75,596

Cash invested: $84,981 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,804 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,592
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$379 /mo · $4,553/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$799
• Net cashflow: $756

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,847

Max offer price $303,502

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,876
• Closing costs: $9,105
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5835 Double Eagle CIR #4714 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,895	$1.69	23d	1	0.01mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4217 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	23d	1	0.01mi
6039 Ellerston WAY #2017 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$6,295	$4.65	23d	1	0.01mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4316 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,495	$4.76	23d	1	0.01mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4218 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	23d	1	0.01mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4338 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	23d	1	0.01mi
5835 Double Eagle Cir #4726 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,095	$1.82	13d	1	0.01mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4223 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,395	$2.08	23d	1	0.01mi
5715 Double Eagle Cir #4416 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,100	$1.82	23d	1	0.01mi
6082 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$4,145	$3.03	23d	2	0.17mi
6058 National Blvd #343 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$4,000	$3.35	23d	1	0.25mi
6058 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1210	$2,995	$2.47	23d	2	0.26mi
6058 National Blvd #335 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,795	$5.17	13d	1	0.26mi
6046 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$4,395	$3.81	23d	2	0.29mi
6034 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1137	$4,046	$3.56	13d	3	0.35mi
5410 Double Eagle Cir #2222 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,395	$1.77	23d	1	0.38mi
5428 Double Eagle Cir #2517 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,695	$1.99	23d	1	0.38mi
5835 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4742 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	23d	1	0.41mi
5807 Double Eagle Cir #4631 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$5,695	$4.38	23d	1	0.41mi
5433 Double Eagle Cir #2915 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$6,295	$4.61	21d	1	0.42mi
5433 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$3,295	$2.41	23d	1	0.44mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2812 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,395	$1.77	13d	1	0.44mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,995	$2.21	23d	1	0.44mi
5478 Double Eagle Cir #3515 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,395	$1.77	23d	1	0.48mi
5466 Double Eagle Cir #3425 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$5,995	$4.42	23d	1	0.48mi
5454 Double Eagle Cir #3325 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,495	$1.84	23d	1	0.55mi
6047 Ellerston Way Unit 1 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	23d	1	0.57mi
5479 Double Eagle Cir #3626 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,200	$1.91	13d	1	0.57mi
5491 Double Eagle Cir #3728 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,195	$1.69	13d	1	0.61mi
5835 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,495	$4.76	23d	1	0.62mi
5807 Double Eagle Cir #4635 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,195	$4.64	23d	1	0.66mi
5807 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,995	$2.30	23d	1	0.67mi
5807 Double Eagle Cir #4621 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	23d	1	0.67mi
5527 Double Eagle Cir Unit 3815 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,795	$5.17	23d	1	0.70mi
5527 Double Eagle Cir Unit 3838 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,295	$1.76	23d	1	0.70mi
5749 Double Eagle Cir #4528 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	21d	1	0.71mi
5749 Double Eagle Cir #4537 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,100	$1.82	21d	1	0.71mi
5749 Double Eagle Cir #4515 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,995	$1.78	21d	1	0.71mi
5749 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,995	$2.30	23d	1	0.71mi
5555 Double Eagle Cir #3914 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,795	$5.17	23d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $261,999 Active 953 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $261,999 Active 952 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $261,999 Active 951 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $261,999 Active 950 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $261,999 Active 945 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $261,999 Active 944 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $261,999 Active 943 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $261,999 Active 942 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $261,999 Active 937 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $261,999 Active 936 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $261,999 Active 935 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $261,999 Active 934 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,001
• − Property taxes: −$4,553
• − Insurance: −$3,342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,652
• − Management: −$3,652
• − Depreciation: −$8,829
• Taxable income: $4,622
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,109
• After-tax cash flow: $7,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B