190 Austin Hill Rd · Erin, NY 14838

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,282 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1966 1.15 ac lot $44/sqft · 49% below area Est $195k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. The home features 2 bedrooms, laundry room, full bath, living room and kitchen/dining room combo on the first floor. Second floor offers 2 bedrooms and a full bath. This home needs rehab, inviting you to make it your own. Step outside on the deck to overlook the beautiful view.

Key facts

• Beautiful view
• Laundry room
• Living room

Tags

• LAUNDRY ROOM
• LIVING ROOM
• KITCHEN DINING ROOM COMBO
• DECK
• BEAUTIFUL VIEW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,126 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Spencer-Van Etten Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #405 of 590 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $90,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.98%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,950
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -48.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $53,756
• Equity at exit: $64,049

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $139,289
• Equity at exit: $117,241

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14838

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,345 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $441	-5% $407	+0% $372	+5% $338	+10% $303
Rent	-10% $266	-5% $319	+0% $372	+5% $426	+10% $479
Rate	-1.0pp $423	-0.5pp $398	base $372	+0.5pp $347	+1.0pp $320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $99,900 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 98 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    price $115,000 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. The home features 2 bedrooms, laundry room, full bath, living room and kitchen/dining room combo on the first floor. Second floor offers 2 bedrooms and a full bath. This home needs rehab, inviting you to make it your own. Step outside on the deck to overlook the beautiful view.

18. 2026-03-23
    price $130,000 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. The home features 2 bedrooms, laundry room, full bath, living room and kitchen/dining room combo on the first floor. Second floor offers 2 bedrooms and a full bath. This home needs rehab, inviting you to make it your own. Step outside on the deck to overlook the beautiful view.

19. 2026-02-21
    listed $143,500 Active 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. The home features 2 bedrooms, laundry room, full bath, living room and kitchen/dining room combo on the first floor. Second floor offers 2 bedrooms and a full bath. This home needs rehab, inviting you to make it your own. Step outside on the deck to overlook the beautiful view.

20. 2025-10-27
    listed $143,500 Active
21. 2025-10-13
    price $143,500
22. 2025-10-13
    listed $143,000 Active
23. 2006-03-03
    soldstatus $95,000
24. 2005-08-05
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥92°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,292
• − Management: −$1,292
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $3,061
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$735
• After-tax cash flow: $3,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spencer-Van Etten Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,456
• Composite: 41.82/100
• National rank: #3389
• State rank: #405 of 590 in NY

Livability — Erin

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1126
• US rank: #23198

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,150
• Population (ZIP): 2,150

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.20%
• Current HPI: 369.3274
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+15.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $115,000 CNYIS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $130,000 CNYIS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $143,500 CNYIS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $143,500 CNYIS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $143,500 IBRMLS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $143,000 IBRMLS
• 2006-03-03 Sold (MLS) $95,000 UNYREIS
• 2005-08-05 Listed $99,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,140 · +15.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.