Hibiscus Plan · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$214,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,055 sqft · SingleFamily · 338 Days on market

$50/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to our brand new Smart Series floorplan, the Hibiscus. Offering 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, a 2-car garage, and 1,055 square feet, this home has plenty of options to make it your home.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 338 days

🏗️ New construction. The $214,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $255,690.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-538 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1932 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 338 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,946 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 338 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.01%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,690
• List price: $214,990
• Delta: -15.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1527 Silver Run	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,204 (+14%)	3mo	$224,590	$187	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-80,366
• Equity at exit: $38,124

10-year hold

• IRR: -72.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.85×
• Total profit: $-132,191
• Equity at exit: $22,107

Cash invested: $71,593 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1932
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,619 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$320 /mo · $3,835/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,300

Max offer price $177,892

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-361	-5% $-449	+0% $-538	+5% $-626	+10% $-714
Rent	-10% $-666	-5% $-602	+0% $-538	+5% $-474	+10% $-410
Rate	-1.0pp $-409	-0.5pp $-473	base $-538	+0.5pp $-604	+1.0pp $-671

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,922
• Closing costs: $7,671
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1696 Quiet Teal New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,650	$1.18	25d	1	0.15mi
417 Deborah Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	44d	1	0.55mi
708 Saengerhalle Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,495	$1.09	18d	1	0.75mi
708 Saengerhalle Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,495	$1.09	17d	1	0.75mi
734 Saengerhalle Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,525	$1.11	44d	1	0.78mi
752 Saengerhalle Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,450	$1.06	18d	1	0.80mi
659 Tom Kemp Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,650	$1.24	25d	1	0.92mi
663 Tom Kemp Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,595	$1.17	23d	1	0.92mi
663 Tom Kemp Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,595	$1.17	44d	1	0.92mi
2118 Silver Maple New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,700	$1.41	5d	1	1.10mi
364 Huntsman Way New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,750	$1.26	44d	1	1.15mi
524 Willow Valley St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,785	$1.36	18d	1	1.23mi
2238 Falcon Way New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,695	$1.24	13d	1	1.23mi
2238 Falcon Way New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,695	$1.24	5d	1	1.23mi
2243 Avery Vlg New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,450	$1.11	4d	1	1.29mi
2237 Avery Vlg New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,595	$1.23	4d	1	1.30mi
146 Texas Thistle New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,750	$1.17	44d	1	1.31mi
308 Blacktail Dr New Braunfels, TX	2.0	2.0	1187	$1,595	$1.34	4d	1	1.31mi
2213 Avery Vlg New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,595	$1.23	44d	1	1.33mi
733 Wolfeton Way New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,695	$1.27	25d	1	1.36mi
1543 Silver Crk New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,545	$1.22	5d	1	1.46mi
1417 White Willow New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,550	$1.08	23d	1	1.46mi
1137 Gracie Way New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,695	$1.28	25d	1	1.46mi
2407 Shady Grv New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,575	$1.12	25d	1	1.48mi
216 Stone Gate Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,595	$1.30	5d	1	1.50mi
2416 Shady Grv New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,773	$1.40	25d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $214,990 Active 338 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,990 Active 335 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,990 Active 334 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,990 Active 333 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,990 Active 332 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,990 Active 330 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,990 Active 326 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,990 Active 325 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,990 Active 324 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $214,990 Active 321 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,990 Active 320 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,990 Active 319 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,990 Active 318 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,990 Active 317 DOM
15. 2025-12-06
    price $214,990 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Welcome to our brand new Smart Series floorplan, the Hibiscus. Offering 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, a 2-car garage, and 1,055 square feet, this home has plenty of options to make it your home.

16. 2025-07-18
    listed $269,990 Active 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Welcome to our brand new Smart Series floorplan, the Hibiscus. Offering 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, a 2-car garage, and 1,055 square feet, this home has plenty of options to make it your home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,835
• − Insurance: −$1,278
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,555
• − Management: −$1,555
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,438
• Taxable loss: −$11,150
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,676
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,776/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Braunfels, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $214,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-18 Listed $269,990 Zillow