8233 Forest Cir · Seminole, FL 33776

$798,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,751 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1980 0.27 ac lot Est $853k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Once you pass thru the custom main door, you will enter into the spacious living, kitchen area, where your family and friends will gather. This home is a great family home and it also is a master piece for entertaining. You will find 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths and an in-ground pool and spillover spa. The garage is extra large, that can accommodate 3 plus vehicles. A wood burning fireplace is set in the living area. This home features 7 sky lights, custom plantation shutters and California closets. The kitchen has two built in ovens, an 8 burner range, Vista vegetable sink and sub zero appliances. This home has a newer roof and Air Conditioner compressor. You will also note the Mahogany beams detail in every corner. The pool area has brick pavers. The home has been completely updated. In season, the yard shows like a beautiful oasis. Seller is providing a 1 year home warranty.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Homestead exempt

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage (35 x 24) with garage door opener and workshop area; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Propane; Sprinkler well
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Home faces south
• Construction: Block and brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a residential single-family home
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Fire pit; Outdoor shower; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; In-ground pool with spa, lighting, and salt water system

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Convection oven; Dishwasher; Range hood; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Attic ventilator; Ceiling fans; Crown molding; High ceilings; Split bedroom floorplan; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Skylights; Shutters; Gas fireplace in living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Inside laundry; Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $798k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $798k).
• Recommended offer: $774k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.8% in Seminole — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#5 in FL, #174 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bauder Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 644 students, 28% FRL); Seminole High School (math 26% / reading 47%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 1,546 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($774k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $329k; list at $798k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $774,060 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.74%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $852,810
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7692 132nd Way	0.45mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,681 (-2%)	2mo	$755,000	$282	68
13189 87th Ave	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,418 (-12%)	1mo	$710,000	$294	67
7796 132nd Way	0.39mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,622 (-5%)	7mo	$812,000	$310	63
13180 Kensington Isle Way	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,636 (-4%)	10mo	$980,000	$372	62
13764 86th Ave	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,420 (-12%)	1mo	$570,000	$236	61
13780 76th Ave	0.65mi	4/3.5	2,692 (-2%)	6mo	$915,000	$340	59
13800 77th Ave	0.58mi	4/3.5	2,908 (+6%)	5mo	$940,000	$323	57
7490 Pine Valley Ln	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,468 (-10%)	8mo	$858,000	$348	50
8310 140th St	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,409 (-12%)	6mo	$845,000	$351	46
12835 74th Ave	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,505 (-9%)	9mo	$735,000	$293	44
14176 86th Ave	0.72mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,582 (-6%)	9mo	$665,000	$258	43
9311 136th Way	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,350 (-15%)	10mo	$555,000	$236	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-37,703
• Equity at exit: $118,984

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $84,504
• Equity at exit: $68,996

Cash invested: $223,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33776

• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,090 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,185
• Tax from tax record: −$432 /mo · $5,187/yr
• Insurance: −$332
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,699
• Net cashflow: $1,442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,265

Max offer price $798,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,894	-5% $1,668	+0% $1,442	+5% $1,216	+10% $990
Rent	-10% $803	-5% $1,122	+0% $1,442	+5% $1,761	+10% $2,081
Rate	-1.0pp $1,844	-0.5pp $1,645	base $1,442	+0.5pp $1,235	+1.0pp $1,025

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $199,500
• Closing costs: $23,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7672 140th St Unit NA Seminole, FL	4.0	3.5	2840	$4,700	$1.65	5d	1	0.72mi
14323 83rd Pl N Unit 1471180P Seminole, FL	4.0	3.0	2895	$13,452	$4.65	22d	1	0.88mi
14414 91st Ave Seminole, FL	3.0	2.5	2083	$8,000	$3.84	25d	1	1.00mi
10075 West Bay St Seminole, FL	5.0	2.5	2043	$8,900	$4.36	25d	1	1.07mi
19138 Whispering Pines Dr Indian Shores, FL	4.0	3.0	2424	$8,000	$3.30	25d	1	1.18mi
10285 Barry Dr Largo, FL	3.0	3.0	3008	$8,500	$2.83	25d	1	1.21mi
19505 Gulf Blvd #304 Indian Shores, FL	4.0	2.5	2388	$15,000	$6.28	4d	1	1.33mi
326 176th Avenue Cir Redington Shores, FL	3.0	2.0	1980	$6,500	$3.28	25d	1	1.38mi
9614 Tara Cay Ct Seminole, FL	4.0	4.0	2100	$2,850	$1.36	21d	1	1.39mi
9794 Indian Key Trl Unit 90 Seminole, FL	4.0	4.0	2174	$3,650	$1.68	25d	1	1.42mi
17900 Gulf Blvd Unit 18-C Redington Shores, FL	3.0	2.5	1935	$4,200	$2.17	25d	1	1.44mi
17745 Gulf Blvd #303 Redington Shores, FL	3.0	3.5	3020	$5,995	$1.99	5d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $798,000 Pending 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $798,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $798,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-05-13
   price $798,000
5. 2026-04-30
   price $822,500
6. 2026-04-10
   listed $845,000 Active
7. 2011-05-26
   soldstatus $329,000
8. 2011-05-18
   soldstatus $329,000 886-char remark

   Show marketing remark (886 chars)

   Once you pass thru the custom main door, you will enter into the spacious living, kitchen area, where your family and friends will gather. This home is a great family home and it also is a master piece for entertaining. You will find 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths and an in-ground pool and spillover spa. The garage is extra large, that can accommodate 3 plus vehicles. A wood burning fireplace is set in the living area. This home features 7 sky lights, custom plantation shutters and California closets. The kitchen has two built in ovens, an 8 burner range, Vista vegetable sink and sub zero appliances. This home has a newer roof and Air Conditioner compressor. You will also note the Mahogany beams detail in every corner. The pool area has brick pavers. The home has been completely updated. In season, the yard shows like a beautiful oasis. Seller is providing a 1 year home warranty.

9. 2011-01-21
   listed $329,900 886-char remark

   Show marketing remark (886 chars)

   Once you pass thru the custom main door, you will enter into the spacious living, kitchen area, where your family and friends will gather. This home is a great family home and it also is a master piece for entertaining. You will find 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths and an in-ground pool and spillover spa. The garage is extra large, that can accommodate 3 plus vehicles. A wood burning fireplace is set in the living area. This home features 7 sky lights, custom plantation shutters and California closets. The kitchen has two built in ovens, an 8 burner range, Vista vegetable sink and sub zero appliances. This home has a newer roof and Air Conditioner compressor. You will also note the Mahogany beams detail in every corner. The pool area has brick pavers. The home has been completely updated. In season, the yard shows like a beautiful oasis. Seller is providing a 1 year home warranty.

10. 2008-11-17
    historical
11. 2008-06-25
    listed $400,000
12. 2005-06-28
    soldstatus $413,000
13. 2005-05-05
    soldstatus $413,000
14. 2005-04-20
    listed $429,900
15. 2000-03-08
    soldstatus $170,000
16. 1990-05-22
    soldstatus $151,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,187 · $432/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,623 · $552/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,436/yr (+$120/mo · 27.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $97,085
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,700
• − Property taxes: −$5,187
• − Insurance: −$3,990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,767
• − Management: −$7,767
• − Depreciation: −$23,215
• Taxable income: $4,459
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,070
• After-tax cash flow: $16,232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Seminole

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #174

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 42,315
• Population (ZIP): 12,711

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -455.42%
• Current HPI: 337.3149
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+428.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $798,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $822,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $845,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $329,000 Public Records
• 2011-05-18 Sold (MLS) $329,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-21 Listed $329,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-25 Listed $400,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $413,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-05 Sold (MLS) $413,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-20 Listed $429,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 1990-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $151,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,187 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.