4164 Heron Way #208 · South Bradenton, FL 34205

$50,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Condo · 18 Days on market

Built 1974 Fair condition $600/mo HOA · 37% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SUN, SPACE, and SAVINGS— all in one! This stunning 2 BED/2BATH CORNER UNIT in Bradenton floods with NATURAL LIGHT and sits just steps from the elevator, laundry room, and your own assigned parking space right outside your front door. At 1,144 sq ft, you'll have a spacious layout with a bonus room, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and step-in shower. The Condo Association includes maintenance of the community pool as well as cable AND internet. Your building has its own private tropical courtyard with shaded gliders, plus access to a heated pool, clubhouse, and a fishing pier right on the lake. Bradenton Beach? Less than 10 miles away. This is the Florida lifestyle you've been wai

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Natural light
• Bonus room

Tags

• CORNER UNIT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• BONUS ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• STEP-IN SHOWER
• PRIVATE TROPICAL COURTYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total annual fees $7,200; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $600; Association fees include cable TV, common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, internet and trash; Association approval required; Association is Resource Property Management, Inc.; Pool in community; Senior community; No pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; West-facing; Second-floor unit; Three-story building; Single-level unit
• Construction: Stucco construction; Other roof; Slab foundation; Building: B
• Exterior features: Outdoor shower; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry; No in-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $336 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 4.0% in South Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.83%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $8,959
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $18,607
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34205

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,623 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$600
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,197

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $371	-5% $354	+0% $336	+5% $319	+10% $302
Rent	-10% $208	-5% $272	+0% $336	+5% $400	+10% $465
Rate	-1.0pp $362	-0.5pp $349	base $336	+0.5pp $323	+1.0pp $310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4204 Heron Way Unit B304 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	4d	1	0.05mi
3963 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit F-414 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	15d	1	0.19mi
4129 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit C501 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	4d	1	0.19mi
4121 Heron Way #108 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,340	$1.17	24d	1	0.19mi
3635 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit J410 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,700	$1.49	24d	1	0.19mi
3737 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 213 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	22d	1	0.19mi
4109 Lake Bayshore Dr Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	768	$1,250	$1.63	24d	1	0.20mi
3064 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 115 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,250	$1.09	24d	1	0.22mi
3124 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 219 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$2,300	$2.01	24d	1	0.22mi
4515 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,510	$1.87	2d	14	0.32mi
2305 46th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,837	$1.83	3d	10	0.40mi
4444 17th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$2,200	$2.59	24d	1	0.41mi
4607 21st St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1133	$2,500	$2.21	24d	1	0.49mi
3506 14th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,725	$1.97	24d	5	0.54mi
2306 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	945	$1,700	$1.80	24d	1	0.61mi
4705 27th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,325	$1.77	4d	1	0.62mi
1308 36th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	715	$1,199	$1.68	24d	1	0.63mi
3512 32nd St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	4d	1	0.67mi
2901 26th St W #807 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$1,525	$1.62	3d	1	0.69mi
2004 49th Ave W Unit 2002 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,950	$1.91	24d	1	0.73mi
4906 21st St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	918	$1,700	$1.85	17d	1	0.73mi
4812 27th St W Unit 4812 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,545	$1.69	12d	1	0.74mi
4812 27th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,599	$1.75	12d	1	0.74mi
4906 25th St W #101 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1070	$1,550	$1.45	24d	1	0.78mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	17d	1	0.80mi
4916 18th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,650	$1.41	24d	1	0.82mi
919 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	950	$1,599	$1.68	12d	1	0.83mi
2835 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,610	$1.89	4d	16	0.83mi
907 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	985	$1,599	$1.62	20d	1	0.85mi
907 34th Ave W Unit B Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,795	$1.79	24d	1	0.85mi
2001 25th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1370	$3,000	$2.19	20d	1	0.88mi
5016 22nd St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	4d	1	0.88mi
2201 24th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,950	$1.75	24d	1	0.91mi
3603 45th Ter W #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	4d	1	0.92mi
3825 45th Ter W #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1429	$1,550	$1.08	24d	1	0.93mi
3715 45th Ter W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1429	$1,695	$1.19	24d	1	0.93mi
5059 Live Oak Cir Unit 5059 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,900	$2.12	17d	1	0.96mi
3603 Oxford Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	24d	1	0.97mi
5062 Live Oak Cir Unit 5026 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,545	$1.72	17d	1	0.99mi
5026 Water Oak Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$2,200	$2.29	24d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $600 · $7,200/yr
• Likely covers: internetcablepoolparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $50,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $60,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $60,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 693-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    listed $60,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,472
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,558
• − Management: −$1,558
• − HOA: −$7,200
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $3,901
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$936
• After-tax cash flow: $3,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2-bedroom/2-bathroom condo requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior stucco — Severe weathering
• Major interior paint — Significant wear
• Major kitchen cabinets — Dirty and outdated
• Major bathroom fixtures — Worn and outdated
• Major flooring — Worn and outdated

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring improves functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior stucco · Severe weathering	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior paint · Significant wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen cabinets · Dirty and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · Worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring improves functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Bradenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,946
• Household income: $52,525
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1736.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -310.18%
• Current HPI: 369.8239
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.43%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid