16118 Craigshire Ct · Houston, TX 77379

$379,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,136 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2005 8,250 sqft lot $121/sqft · 11% below area Est $425k · 11% under $25/mo HOA ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1. A HUGE BACKYARD COVERED PATIO ADDED, 2. EXTENDED DRIVEWAY WITH MORE PARKING SPACE, 3. POTENTIAL OF 5TH ROOM ON THE UPSTAIR, 4. UPGRADED WOOD FLOORING THROUGHOUT, 5. A NEWLY EPOXY-COATED GARAGE FLOOR, 6. TOP-RATED SCHOOL DISTRICT, 7. UPGRADED KITCHEN WITH APPLIANCES INCLUDED, 8. WALKING DISTANCE TO THE KROGER SHOPPING PLAZA. Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and 2 half baths, ideally situated with no left-side neighbor for added privacy. A perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and location — this home is a must-see!

Key facts

• 8,250 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

Tags

• HUGE BACKYARD COVERED PATIO
• UPGRADED WOOD FLOORING
• TOP-RATED SCHOOL DISTRICT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: PMG HOUSTON; Annual association fee of $300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2005; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (10 x 10); Breakfast room/nook (12 x 10); Separate dining room (12 x 11)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15 x 13); Bedroom on the second floor (13 x 11); Bedroom on the third floor (12 x 11); Bedroom on the fourth floor (12 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Total of 8 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $379k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $379k).
• Recommended offer: $368k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Klein ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 622 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,339/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) (locally 2220% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($368k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $367,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.15%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $425,011
• List price: $379,000
• Delta: -10.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13 Stonegate Park Ct	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,068 (-2%)	2mo	$430,000	$140	74
16406 Farnell Ct	0.32mi	4/3.5	3,259 (+4%)	3mo	$510,000	$156	72
8215 Turnmill Ct	0.27mi	4/3.5	2,986 (-5%)	4mo	$400,000	$134	72
16115 Abberton Hill Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,931 (-6%)	2mo	$419,878	$143	67
24 Villa Bend Dr	0.64mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,210 (+2%)	2mo	$525,000	$164	56
8007 Sunset Falls Ct	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,496 (+12%)	1mo	$675,000	$193	51
5306 Norborne Ln	0.54mi	4/3.0	3,498 (+12%)	2mo	$472,000	$135	51
16119 Maplehurst Dr	0.71mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,320 (+6%)	1mo	$479,000	$144	47
16022 Winchmore Hill Dr	0.43mi	4/4.0	3,576 (+14%)	4mo	$475,000	$133	47
8719 Chelmsford Ln	0.55mi	4/3.5	3,579 (+14%)	4mo	$600,000	$168	43
7 Champion Villa Dr	0.75mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,818 (-10%)	3mo	$439,900	$156	38
16230 Heden Rd	0.64mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,541 (+13%)	3mo	$549,000	$155	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-12,837
• Equity at exit: $56,510

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $12,294
• Equity at exit: $32,769

Cash invested: $106,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77379

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 622
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,339 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax from tax record: −$620 /mo · $7,436/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,121
• Net cashflow: $1,001

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,072

Max offer price $379,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,750
• Closing costs: $11,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16623 Manningtree Ln Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	2572	$2,800	$1.09	43d	1	0.47mi
5135 Westerham Pl Unit 1262307P Houston, TX	5.0	3.5	3358	$17,582	$5.24	22d	1	1.04mi
4807 Wellington Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2876	$2,500	$0.87	43d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $379,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $379,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-09
    listed $388,000 Active 587-char remark
15. 2007-03-06
    soldstatus
16. 1994-03-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,436 · $620/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,436 · $620/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,230
• − Property taxes: −$7,436
• − Insurance: −$7,014
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,126
• − Management: −$5,126
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$11,025
• Taxable income: $6,815
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,636
• After-tax cash flow: $10,381/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 85,190
• Household income: $107,486
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2220.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 11% Asian 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.58%
• Current HPI: 218.9608
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $379,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $388,000 HARMLS
• 2007-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-03-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,436 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.