Mustang Meadows 1450 Plan · Waller, TX 77484

$216,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,449 sqft · SingleFamily · 126 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

In Mustang Meadows, the ease of small-town living meets the convenience of having everything you need just minutes away. Surrounded by open space and rooted in a strong school district, the community offers a laid-back lifestyle while still placing you close to retail, dining, and plenty of outdoor adventure. With immediate access to Hwy 290, getting to work, meeting friends, or heading into Houston for the day is a breeze. It's a setting built for those who want room to relax without losing the convenience of being near it all.

Key facts

• Close to dining
• Close to retail
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• STRONG SCHOOL DISTRICT
• IMMEDIATE ACCESS TO HWY 290
• CLOSE TO RETAIL
• CLOSE TO DINING
• PLENTY OF OUTDOOR ADVENTURE

🏗️ New construction. The $216,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $267,290.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $217k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-478 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.3% in Waller — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1744 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,367 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.66%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,290
• List price: $216,990
• Delta: -18.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31011 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-3%)	2mo	$263,040	$186	74
31035 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-3%)	3mo	$262,040	$186	74
31026 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	2mo	$268,790	$175	70
31003 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	1mo	$274,540	$179	70
31015 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	2mo	$209,990	$137	69
31039 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	3mo	$270,290	$176	68
31218 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	5mo	$266,790	$174	65
31318 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-3%)	9mo	$204,990	$145	65
31206 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	6mo	$267,790	$174	65
31235 Gayle Prairie Oaks	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	4mo	$269,990	$176	64
31247 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	7mo	$268,740	$175	61
31338 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	8mo	$234,990	$153	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-78,784
• Equity at exit: $39,854

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.70×
• Total profit: $-127,300
• Equity at exit: $23,110

Cash invested: $74,841 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 28 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.9 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $245,890 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 102 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1744
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,734 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,402
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$334 /mo · $4,009/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,338

Max offer price $198,183

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-293	-5% $-385	+0% $-478	+5% $-570	+10% $-662
Rent	-10% $-615	-5% $-546	+0% $-478	+5% $-409	+10% $-341
Rate	-1.0pp $-343	-0.5pp $-410	base $-478	+0.5pp $-547	+1.0pp $-617

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,822
• Closing costs: $8,019
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Mustang Meadows 1450 Plan, Waller, TX 77484Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $216,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan: Mustang Meadows 1450Plan model: Mustang Meadows 1450
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1449 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-based new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $216,990 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $216,990 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $216,990 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $216,990 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $216,990 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $216,990 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $216,990 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $216,990 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $216,990 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $216,990 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $216,990 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $216,990 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $216,990 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $216,990 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $216,990 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $216,990 Active 103 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $216,990 Active 102 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $216,990 Active 101 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $216,990 Active 100 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $216,990 Active 99 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $216,990 Active 97 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $216,990 Active 96 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $216,990 Active 95 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $216,990 Active 94 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $216,990 Active 93 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $216,990 Active 92 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $216,990 Active 91 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $216,990 Active 90 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $216,990 Active 89 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $216,990 Active 88 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $216,990 Active 87 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $216,990 Active 86 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $216,990 Active 85 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $216,990 Active 84 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $216,990 Active 83 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $216,990 Active 82 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $216,990 Active 81 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $216,990 Active 80 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $216,990 Active 78 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $216,990 Active 77 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $216,990 Active 76 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $216,990 Active 75 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $216,990 Active 72 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $216,990 Active 70 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $216,990 Active 69 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $216,990 Active 67 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $216,990 Active 65 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $216,990 Active 64 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $216,990 Active 63 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $216,990 Active 62 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,972
• − Property taxes: −$4,009
• − Insurance: −$1,336
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,664
• − Management: −$1,664
• − Depreciation: −$7,776
• Taxable loss: −$10,619
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,548
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,245–$21,735 screening

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for minor updates to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor updates can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary I T Holleman El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Mustang Meadows 1450 Plan, Waller, TX 77484Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $216,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan: Mustang Meadows 1450Plan model: Mustang Meadows 1450
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1449 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-based new construction)