7001 Guadalupe Rd · Waco, TX 76633

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,709 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 158 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 7,749 sqft lot $161/sqft · at area comps Est $266k · at est. $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ENTIRE HOME WAS RECENTLY PAINTED AND ALL CARPETS SHAMPOOED!! Welcome home to comfort and convenience in China Spring. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence feels brand new, boasting 2022 construction and nice updates. You’ll love the functional flow of the open living area, designed for easy evenings of entertaining or relaxing. The floor plan prioritizes privacy with a secluded primary suite, leaving three additional bedrooms for guests, or a dedicated home office. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio and spacious backyard, your new favorite spot for morning coffee. Located just minutes from top-rated schools and Waco amenities, this move-in-ready home is waiting for you.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Open living area
• Covered patio

Tags

• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• GRANITE SURFACES
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• SECLUDED PRIMARY SUITE
• COVERED PATIO
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-505/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: China Spring El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 677 students, 36% FRL); China Spring Middle (math 63% / reading 59%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 478 students, 34% FRL); China Spring H S (math 50% / reading 69%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $242,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,612
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: 3.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7200 Guadalupe Rd	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,612 (-6%)	1mo	$278,000	$172	81
7024 Sulphur Ct	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,662 (-3%)	7mo	$315,000	$190	79
7201 Llano Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,796 (+5%)	2mo	$289,900	$161	79
7012 Llano Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	1,814 (+6%)	3mo	$319,900	$176	76
6932 Sulphur Ct	0.21mi	4/3.0	1,800 (+5%)	2mo	$298,900	$166	75
7020 Llano Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (-4%)	10mo	$317,000	$194	72
6941 Guadalupe Rd	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (-12%)	8mo	$255,000	$170	68
242 Tulum Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,809 (+6%)	7mo	$300,000	$166	63
7209 Guadalupe Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (-12%)	11mo	$284,500	$190	54
7208 Canadian Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (-12%)	12mo	$267,000	$179	53
11204 Echo Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,578 (-8%)	3mo	$279,900	$177	45
215 Curry Ln	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,929 (+13%)	12mo	$285,000	$148	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-47,081
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-43,798
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76633

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$519 /mo · $6,232/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,653

Max offer price $267,571

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $36	+0% $-42	+5% $-120	+10% $-198
Rent	-10% $-247	-5% $-145	+0% $-42	+5% $61	+10% $163
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $28	base $-42	+0.5pp $-113	+1.0pp $-186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10201 Altair Dr Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,600	$1.28	23d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $275,000 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $275,000 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    ENTIRE HOME WAS RECENTLY PAINTED AND ALL CARPETS SHAMPOOED!! Welcome home to comfort and convenience in China Spring. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence feels brand new, boasting 2022 construction and nice updates. You’ll love the functional flow of the open living area, designed for easy evenings of entertaining or relaxing. The floor plan prioritizes privacy with a secluded primary suite, leaving three additional bedrooms for guests, or a dedicated home office. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio and spacious backyard, your new favorite spot for morning coffee. Located just minutes from top-rated schools and Waco amenities, this move-in-ready home is waiting for you.

17. 2026-02-23
    soldstatus
18. 2026-01-14
    listed $285,000 Active 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Welcome home to comfort and convenience in China Spring. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence feels brand new, boasting 2022 construction and thoughtful upgrades like fresh interior paint and granite surfaces. You’ll love the functional flow of the open living area, designed for easy evenings of entertaining or relaxing. The floor plan prioritizes privacy with a secluded primary suite, leaving three additional bedrooms for guests, or a dedicated home office. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio and spacious backyard, your new favorite spot for morning coffee. Located just minutes from top-rated schools and Waco amenities, this move-in-ready home is waiting for you.

19. 2026-01-14
    listed $285,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Welcome home to comfort and convenience in China Spring. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence feels brand new, boasting 2022 construction and thoughtful upgrades like fresh interior paint and granite surfaces. You’ll love the functional flow of the open living area, designed for easy evenings of entertaining or relaxing. The floor plan prioritizes privacy with a secluded primary suite, leaving three additional bedrooms for guests, or a dedicated home office. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio and spacious backyard, your new favorite spot for morning coffee. Located just minutes from top-rated schools and Waco amenities, this move-in-ready home is waiting for you.

20. 2026-01-06
    listed $285,000 Active 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    ENTIRE HOME WAS RECENTLY PAINTED AND ALL CARPETS SHAMPOOED!! Welcome home to comfort and convenience in China Spring. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence feels brand new, boasting 2022 construction and nice updates. You’ll love the functional flow of the open living area, designed for easy evenings of entertaining or relaxing. The floor plan prioritizes privacy with a secluded primary suite, leaving three additional bedrooms for guests, or a dedicated home office. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio and spacious backyard, your new favorite spot for morning coffee. Located just minutes from top-rated schools and Waco amenities, this move-in-ready home is waiting for you.

21. 2025-12-29
    historical
22. 2025-11-04
    price $285,000
23. 2025-09-26
    listed $299,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,232 · $519/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,232 · $519/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$6,232
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,496
• − Management: −$2,496
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$5,043
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,210
• After-tax cash flow: $706/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready home features new construction, fresh updates, and a functional floor plan. It's in excellent condition with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace landscaping — Improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace landscaping — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: China Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813960
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,314
• Composite: 50.64/100
• National rank: #1837
• State rank: #70 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• City population: 125,319
• Population (ZIP): 6,037

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.76%
• Current HPI: 242.4084
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-14 Listed $285,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $285,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-29 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $299,999 NTREIS

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,232 · -7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.