2425 Arbor Ct · McKee City, NJ 08330

$200,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,000 sqft · Townhouse · 91 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $175k · 14% over $232/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this move-in ready 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhome located in the desirable Woodlands community. Thoughtfully updated, this home offers a kitchen redone 2 years ago with updated appliances, newer windows, an updated water heater, and a convenient in-unit washer and dryer. The main level features a dedicated dining area with sliding glass doors that open to a private patio—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Just off the kitchen, you’ll find a powder room, laundry area, and utility space for added convenience. Upstairs are two comfortable bedrooms, including one with a spacious double closet, along with a full hall bathroom. Residents enjoy access to the community&rsquo

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Newer windows
• Updated water heater

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• NEWER WINDOWS
• UPDATED WATER HEATER
• IN UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• DEDICATED DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.0% in McKee City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hamilton Township School District (suburban): math 9% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #401 of 472 in NJ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.36%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2614 Dogwood Ct #2614	0.09mi	2/1.0	956 (-4%)	2mo	$142,000	$149	85
3137 Woodlands Dr Dr #3137	0.54mi	2/1.0	996 (-0%)	5mo	$167,500	$168	68
2409 Arbor Ct #2409	0.03mi	2/1.5	1,148 (+15%)	7mo	$190,000	$166	68
4416 Yorktown Pl #4416	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,010 (+1%)	9mo	$177,000	$175	66
3230 Juniper Ct	0.46mi	2/1.0	996 (-0%)	12mo	$167,500	$168	66
3107 Woodlands Ave #5	0.42mi	2/1.0	996 (-0%)	14mo	$162,750	$163	66
3404 Juniper Ct Ct #3404	0.50mi	2/1.0	996 (-0%)	14mo	$175,900	$177	63
2851 Forsythia Ct #66	0.21mi	2/1.0	896 (-10%)	13mo	$165,000	$184	60
4556 Concord Pl #4556	0.63mi	2/1.0	1,010 (+1%)	9mo	$184,000	$182	59
2707 Mimosa Ct #2707	0.21mi	2/1.0	892 (-11%)	13mo	$130,000	$146	59
3108 Woodlands Dr #3108	0.43mi	2/1.0	908 (-9%)	8mo	$180,000	$198	56
3425 Juniper Ct #42	0.52mi	2/2.0	929 (-7%)	13mo	$175,000	$188	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $119,080
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.13×
• Total profit: $343,174
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08330

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,242 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$232
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,043

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2529 Cottonwood Ct Mays Landing, NJ	2.0	1.5	1376	$2,200	$1.60	43d	1	0.09mi
2529 Cottonwood Ct Mays Landing, NJ	2.0	1.5	1376	$2,200	$1.60	13d	1	0.09mi
2703 Mimosa Ct Mays Landing, NJ	2.0	1.5	1268	$2,200	$1.74	13d	1	0.17mi
2807 Hawthorn Ct Mays Landing, NJ	1.0	1.0	929	$1,800	$1.94	13d	1	0.23mi
3401 Montgomery Dr Mays Landing, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1192	$2,810	$2.36	13d	18	0.28mi
1932 Cologne Ave Mays Landing, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,825	$2.35	13d	1	0.66mi
2605 Flagstaff Ct #2605 Mays Landing, NJ	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	20d	1	0.95mi
2000 Timber Glen Dr Mays Landing, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1577	$2,441	$1.55	13d	2	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $232 · $2,784/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-13
   price $200,000
4. 2026-03-09
   price $210,000
5. 2026-01-15
   listed $215,000 Active
6. 2025-09-12
   historical
7. 2025-08-29
   price $210,000
8. 2025-08-10
   listed $215,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,152
• − Management: −$2,152
• − HOA: −$2,784
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,211
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$291
• After-tax cash flow: $2,170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3406510
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $60,997
• Composite: 21.34/100
• National rank: #8372
• State rank: #401 of 472 in NJ

Livability — McKee City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: McKee City, NJ
• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 29,972
• Household income: $77,167
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1003.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.58%
• Current HPI: 308.5148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-16 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-10 Listed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS