1503 27th St · Lubbock, TX 79411

$30,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 872 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1947 6,694 sqft lot $34/sqft · 70% below area ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FIXER UPPER OPPORTUNITY!! This house can be a great FLIP OPPORTUNITY, for those that are up for a challenge. Call your favorite Licensed Realtor for a guided tour. House is for cash purchase only.

Key facts

• 6,694 sq ft lot
• Built 1947
• Listed 79 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($945 rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bean El Gr 01 To 05 (math 26% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 349 students, 96% FRL); Slaton Middle (math 13% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 355 students, 96% FRL); Monterey H S (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,114 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 60% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lubbock ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 97 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.72%
• DSCR: 4.37
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,900
• List price: $30,000
• Delta: -69.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $949
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $6,196
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79411

• Home prices YoY: -10.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $945 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $564/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $814

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $120	-5% $112	+0% $103	+5% $95	+10% $86
Rent	-10% $29	-5% $66	+0% $103	+5% $141	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $119	-0.5pp $111	base $103	+0.5pp $96	+1.0pp $88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1313 25th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	780	$875	$1.12	45d	1	0.17mi
1608 29th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	694	$750	$1.08	15d	1	0.17mi
1610 28th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$750	$0.71	15d	1	0.18mi
1609 27th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	862	$900	$1.04	45d	1	0.18mi
3104 Avenue N Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$785	$1.05	22d	1	0.22mi
1724 27th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$925	$1.09	45d	1	0.38mi
1601 21st St Unit a Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$925	$0.94	15d	1	0.48mi
2015 Avenue L Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$960	$0.98	15d	1	0.49mi
1204 36th St Unit b Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$835	$0.96	15d	1	0.52mi
2007 27th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1044	$1,250	$1.20	45d	1	0.54mi
1915 Avenue O Unit O Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	732	$750	$1.02	45d	1	0.55mi
1911 21st St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	714	$750	$1.05	45d	1	0.63mi
2404 Avenue U Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	948	$699	$0.74	45d	1	0.65mi
2404 Avenue U Unit U Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	948	$925	$0.98	45d	1	0.65mi
2103 33rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1075	$700	$0.65	15d	1	0.69mi
2123 25th St Unit rear Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	45d	1	0.71mi
2119 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1055	$950	$0.90	45d	1	0.71mi
2011 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	810	$800	$0.99	45d	1	0.72mi
1312 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	940	$795	$0.85	22d	1	0.75mi
2220 25th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1077	$695	$0.65	22d	1	0.82mi
2107 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1025	$800	$0.78	45d	1	0.82mi
2122 21st St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$750	$0.94	22d	1	0.83mi
2122 21st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$750	$0.94	22d	2	0.83mi
2122 21st St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	45d	1	0.83mi
609 38th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	660	$550	$0.83	45d	1	0.84mi
332 37th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	725	$700	$0.97	22d	1	0.87mi
330 37th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	15d	1	0.88mi
512 39th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	876	$849	$0.97	15d	1	0.89mi
2208 35th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	767	$750	$0.98	45d	1	0.90mi
2108 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	45d	1	0.91mi
1712 42nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	899	$695	$0.77	22d	1	0.94mi
211 36th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$775	$1.03	45d	1	0.94mi
209 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	45d	1	0.94mi
2315 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	22d	1	0.94mi
1805 Avenue V Unit V Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	558	$599	$1.07	22d	1	1.00mi
2307 20th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$850	$1.00	45d	1	1.00mi
2405 23rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1042	$895	$0.86	22d	1	1.01mi
2403 22nd Pl Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1066	$900	$0.84	22d	1	1.01mi
2411 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1003	$1,000	$1.00	22d	1	1.03mi
2101 16th St Unit 2D Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$825	$0.87	45d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $30,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $30,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $40,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $40,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $40,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $40,000 Active 57 DOM
18. 2026-04-02
    listed $40,000 Active 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    FIXER UPPER OPPORTUNITY!! This house can be a great FLIP OPPORTUNITY, for those that are up for a challenge. Call your favorite Licensed Realtor for a guided tour. House is for cash purchase only.

19. 2022-02-01
    soldstatus 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    What a fantastic opportunity to make this great home yours! Home owners or investors, Welcome Home! Front house rents for $800 and Back house rents for $495. Exclusive to the 27th street package.

20. 2021-06-28
    listed $75,000 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    What a fantastic opportunity to make this great home yours! Home owners or investors, Welcome Home! Front house rents for $800 and Back house rents for $495. Exclusive to the 27th street package.

21. 2021-06-14
    listed $72,100
22. 2017-08-24
    soldstatus
23. 2009-06-15
    soldstatus
24. 2009-06-05
    soldstatus
25. 2005-08-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $564 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $564 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$564
• − Insurance: −$5,268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$908
• − Management: −$908
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $1,144
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$274
• After-tax cash flow: $967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,865
• Household income: $47,634
• Rent vs Own: 72.5% rent · 27.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 777.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 39% Two or more races 10% Black 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.58%
• Current HPI: 210.495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.87%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-44.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $40,000 LARMLS
• 2022-02-01 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2021-06-28 Listed $75,000 LARMLS
• 2021-06-14 Listed $72,100 LARMLS
• 2017-08-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $564 · -61.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.