234 Lawrence St · Madisonville, KY 42431

$54,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,116 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1900 5,663 sqft lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Full of history and opportunity, this 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers a unique chance to restore and reimagine a property with character. Originally built in 1900 and rebuilt approximately 45 years ago following a fire, the home blends early charm with a more modern footprint. Recent updates include a new roof in 2024 and a new sump pump in the cellar, providing peace of mind on two major items. The family room features a gas log fireplace, adding warmth and character to the living space. The gas furnace is functional, while the central AC is not operational; however, two window units provide cooling during the summer months. This property is ideal for buyers or investors ready to bring t

Key facts

• New sump pump
• Gas log fireplace
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW SUMP PUMP
• GAS LOG FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Window air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $54k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($795 rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 4.0% in Madisonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#132 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hopkins County (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #65 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 122 units permitted in Hopkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $373 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hopkins County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.23%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,716
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 West Lake St	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+0%)	1mo	$145,000	$129	80
512 W Center St	0.27mi	2/1.0	1,080 (-3%)	12mo	$15,000	$14	72
233 Hopewell St	0.53mi	2/1.0	1,109 (-1%)	5mo	$90,000	$81	70
616 Victoria St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,158 (+4%)	2mo	$15,000	$13	68
626 Dozier Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,132 (+1%)	11mo	$129,000	$114	66
771 Sugg St	0.58mi	2/1.0	1,082 (-3%)	10mo	$121,500	$112	60
170 Murray St	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,036 (-7%)	6mo	$41,000	$40	59
325 Pride Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0	1,199 (+7%)	5mo	$45,000	$38	54
413 W Arch St	0.37mi	2/1.0	964 (-14%)	8mo	$96,910	$101	53
333 Woodson Ave	0.69mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,236 (+11%)	1mo	$120,000	$97	44
605 Virginia Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (-9%)	6mo	$120,000	$118	40
612 Cherokee St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,238 (+11%)	2mo	$185,000	$149	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $7,494
• Equity at exit: $8,052

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $27,477
• Equity at exit: $4,669

Cash invested: $15,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42431

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$68 /mo · $810/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $472

Max offer price $54,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,500
• Closing costs: $1,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
901 Princeton Rd Unit 504 Madisonville, KY	2.0	1.0	864	$795	$0.92	13d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,000 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,000 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,000 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,000 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,000 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,000 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,000 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,000 Active 160 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,000 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,000 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $54,000 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,000 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,000 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,000 Active 152 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,000 Active 151 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    price $54,000
17. 2026-04-30
    status Active
18. 2026-04-22
    status Pending
19. 2026-03-19
    price $58,000
20. 2026-02-05
    price $62,000
21. 2025-12-22
    listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,025
• − Property taxes: −$810
• − Insurance: −$270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$763
• − Management: −$763
• − Depreciation: −$1,571
• Taxable income: $2,338
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$561
• After-tax cash flow: $2,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopkins County
• NCES district ID: 2102860
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $42,436
• Composite: 29.56/100
• National rank: #6488
• State rank: #65 of 165 in KY

Livability — Madisonville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #6200

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madisonville, KY
• City population: 27,095
• Population (ZIP): 27,095

Population outlook (Hopkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,164 people
• By 2030: 44,083 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 41,650 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 39,303 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 34,567 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 29,476 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hopkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.9) · D 23.9% · R 74.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.9pp · 2024: -50.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.9 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+54.0 2012: R+39.9 2008: R+24.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.52%
• Current HPI: 220.2269
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-16.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $54,000 MHCBOR
• 2026-04-30 Relisted — MHCBOR
• 2026-04-22 Pending — MHCBOR
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $58,000 MHCBOR
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $62,000 MHCBOR
• 2025-12-22 Listed $65,000 MHCBOR