9411 Lomax St · Houston, TX 77093

$200,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,003 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1965 0.37 ac lot Est $204k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1965

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry with additional levels (multi-level interior)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1965; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen integrated with family room
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 16); Bedroom on the second floor (approx. 12 x 14); Bedroom on the third floor (approx. 12 x 14)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room are combined

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Henry Middle (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,641 of 1,662 statewide, top 99%, 690 students, 98% FRL); Houston Math Science And Technology Center (math 9% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 2,779 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 12% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,667/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 1815% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.27%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,306
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8917 Etta St Unit A	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,855 (-7%)	7mo	$277,250	$149	42
1725 Tidwell Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,813 (-10%)	22mo	$184,990	$102	40
2922 Hohl St	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,720 (-14%)	14mo	$230,000	$134	36
2003 Turner Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,300 (+15%)	18mo	$185,000	$80	32
2630 Kenco St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,721 (-14%)	18mo	$130,000	$76	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $13,464
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $90,199
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77093

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,667 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$355 /mo · $4,265/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,883

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3208 Bostic St Unit 1254540P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1603	$3,691	$2.30	2d	1	0.99mi
8326 Curry Rd Unit 1228882P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,878	$1.78	7d	1	1.00mi
8322 Curry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$2,500	$1.56	43d	1	1.01mi
8320 Curry Rd Unit 1391267P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1550	$5,134	$3.31	1d	1	1.01mi
8320 Curry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1558	$8,950	$5.74	22d	1	1.01mi
8318 Curry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$2,299	$1.48	43d	1	1.02mi
2623 Huntington Creek Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$2,299	$1.48	24d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $200,000 Pending 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 67 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 66 DOM
4. 2026-04-09
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-03-25
   listed $200,000 Active
6. 2025-10-08
   historical
7. 2025-10-08
   status Active
8. 2025-07-10
   status Pending
9. 2025-06-24
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2025-06-04
    status Pending, Continue to Show
11. 2025-05-19
    listed $215,000 Active
12. 2025-05-09
    historical
13. 1991-05-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,265 · $355/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,265 · $355/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,265
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,560
• − Management: −$2,560
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $4,593
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,102
• After-tax cash flow: $6,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,407
• Household income: $46,766
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1815.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 24% Black 11% White 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 70%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 70%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.53%
• Current HPI: 277.4914
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-07-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-05-19 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-09 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 1991-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,265 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.