The Dove Plan · Willis, TX 77318

$223,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,733 sqft · SingleFamily · 71 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Dove is a versatile 1,733-square-foot home designed for flexibility. A covered front entry and two-car garage provide everyday convenience, while the owners suite is thoughtfully placed on the main level at the back of the home for added privacy. The owners suite includes a comfortable bath and generous closet space, creating a functional retreat on the main floor. Upstairs, two additional bedrooms and a full bathroom offer separation and flexibility for a variety of needs.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 70 days

🏗️ New construction. The $223,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $258,032.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $224k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-412 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C C Hardy El (math 32% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 752 students, 83% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1387 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $173,534 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.85%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,032
• List price: $223,990
• Delta: -14.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9734 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,689 (-2%)	0mo	$286,992	$170	85
12501 Falls Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,705 (-2%)	7mo	$269,900	$158	82
12355 Sunset Canyon Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,689 (-2%)	3mo	$259,190	$153	77
9738 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,826 (+5%)	4mo	$289,260	$158	77
9754 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,682 (-3%)	4mo	$256,875	$153	75
672 Crested Duck Ct	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,743 (+1%)	9mo	$299,900	$172	57
676 Crested Duck Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,697 (-2%)	5mo	$347,745	$205	56
715 Campbell Crossing Ct	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,743 (+1%)	12mo	$372,900	$214	55
719 Campbell Crossing Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,697 (-2%)	9mo	$359,990	$212	53
668 Crested Duck Ct	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,785 (+3%)	5mo	$324,900	$182	50
9654 Live Oak Trl	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,521 (-12%)	6mo	$220,000	$145	46
253 Warbler Song Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,984 (+14%)	10mo	$375,990	$190	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-73,130
• Equity at exit: $38,473

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-117,040
• Equity at exit: $22,310

Cash invested: $72,249 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 82 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $274,046 ($159/sqft)
• Median days on market: 111 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1387
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,735 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$323 /mo · $3,870/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,257

Max offer price $198,374

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-234	-5% $-323	+0% $-412	+5% $-501	+10% $-591
Rent	-10% $-549	-5% $-481	+0% $-412	+5% $-344	+10% $-275
Rate	-1.0pp $-282	-0.5pp $-347	base $-412	+0.5pp $-479	+1.0pp $-547

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,508
• Closing costs: $7,741
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9700 FM 1097 Rd W Willis, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1115	$1,455	$1.30	0d	6	0.18mi
9706 Farm to Market 1097 Willis, TX	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,030	$0.96	93d	1	0.23mi
505 Hines Ave Apt B Willis, TX	3.0	2.5	1665	$1,550	$0.93	3d	1	0.47mi
501 Hines Ave Unit B Willis, TX	2.0	2.5	1283	$1,499	$1.17	19d	1	0.48mi
104 Turner Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1153	$1,700	$1.47	93d	1	0.78mi
314 Harbor Bend Ct Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,800	$1.37	93d	1	0.85mi
207 W Mink St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	1066	$1,599	$1.50	36d	1	1.03mi
104 Runners ST Unit B Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,700	$1.40	54d	1	1.11mi
104 Runnels St Unit B Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,700	$1.40	43d	1	1.22mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price listed (plan available)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Has heatingHas cooling
• Home design: New construction planAddress: Willis, TX 77318
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,733 (plan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan name: The Dove
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open plan living area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $223,990 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $223,990 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $223,990 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $223,990 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $223,990 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $223,990 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $223,990 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $223,990 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $223,990 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $223,990 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    price $223,990 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $220,990 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $220,990 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $220,990 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $220,990 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $220,990 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $220,990 Active 49 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $220,990 Active 48 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $220,990 Active 47 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $220,990 Active 46 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $220,990 Active 45 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $220,990 Active 44 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $220,990 Active 43 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $220,990 Active 42 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $220,990 Active 41 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $220,990 Active 39 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $220,990 Active 38 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $220,990 Active 37 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $220,990 Active 36 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $220,990 Active 35 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $220,990 Active 34 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $220,990 Active 33 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $220,990 Active 32 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $220,990 Active 31 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $220,990 Active 30 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $220,990 Active 29 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $220,990 Active 28 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $220,990 Active 26 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $220,990 Active 24 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $220,990 Active 23 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $220,990 Active 20 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $220,990 Active 19 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $220,990 Active 18 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $220,990 Active 17 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $220,990 Active 15 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $220,990 Active 11 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,990 Active 10 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,990 Active 9 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $220,990 Active 6 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,990 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,824
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,454
• − Property taxes: −$3,870
• − Insurance: −$1,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − Depreciation: −$7,506
• Taxable loss: −$9,629
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,311
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a modern kitchen and bathroom, and a well-maintained exterior. The home has potential for further value increases through painting, landscaping, and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary C C Hardy El F TX #2,464/4,322 Nat'l #26,279/41,679 Middle Lynn Lucas Middle F TX #1,156/1,662 Nat'l #9,659/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willis, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price listed (plan available)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Has heatingHas cooling
• Home design: New construction planAddress: Willis, TX 77318
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,733 (plan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan name: The Dove
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open plan living area