30 Ehrbar Ave #311 · Mount Vernon, NY 10552

$225,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Condo · 172 Days on market

Built 1951 ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss out on this great opportunity! Why rent when you could own for the cost of a rental in today's market? Suburban lifestyle, close to the city! This is a MUST-SEE! MOVE IN READY! This Unit is in a beautifully maintained complex with an outdoor patio area where you can sit, relax, and enjoy the lovely Zen area—Located close to all highways and public transportation. Accessible to Pelham or Mount Vernon East Metro North RR, Bee-Line Buses #7,40, 41, 43, close to supermarkets, schools, playground, cross county shopping mall, restaurants. parking (waiting listed)

Key facts

• Accessible to pelham
• Outdoor patio area
• Close to highways

Tags

• OUTDOOR PATIO AREA
• BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED COMPLEX
• CLOSE TO HIGHWAYS
• PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
• ACCESSIBLE TO PELHAM
• CLOSE TO SUPERMARKETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $641 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 5.2% in Mount Vernon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#397 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A, employment B; Watch: crime D-, cost of living F.
• Mount Vernon School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #485 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mount Vernon Honor Academy (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,519 of 2,108 statewide, top 74%, 308 students, 58% FRL); Benjamin Turner Middle School (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #678 of 729 statewide, top 94%, 196 students, 71% FRL); Denzel Washington School-Arts (math 57% / reading 84%, grade B+, #701 of 1,100 statewide, top 64%, 383 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.21%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $16,157
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $119,238
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10552

• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,779 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $641

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $796	-5% $719	+0% $641	+5% $563	+10% $485
Rent	-10% $421	-5% $531	+0% $641	+5% $751	+10% $860
Rate	-1.0pp $754	-0.5pp $698	base $641	+0.5pp $583	+1.0pp $523

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
635 E Lincoln Ave Mount Vernon, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,150	$3.15	8d	1	0.35mi
112 N Columbus Ave Unit 2 Mt Vernon, NY	2.0	2.0	900	$2,997	$3.33	19d	1	0.35mi
148 Claremont Ave Mount Vernon, NY	2.0	1.0	960	$2,400	$2.50	19d	1	0.38mi
173 Washington St Unit 1 Mt Vernon, NY	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,000	$2.73	25d	1	0.71mi
173 Washington St Unit 2 Mt Vernon, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,200	$2.13	2d	1	0.71mi
173 Crary Ave Mount Vernon, NY	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,100	$2.82	25d	1	0.75mi
33 William St Mount Vernon, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$2,675	$3.69	22d	2	0.96mi
42 Broad St W Mount Vernon, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$5,080	$5.01	24d	15	0.99mi
42 Broad St W Mount Vernon, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	955	$3,199	$3.35	2d	16	0.99mi
669 N Terrace Ave Mount Vernon, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$2,031	$2.71	25d	1	1.01mi
230 N 7th Ave Unit 2 Mt Vernon, NY	1.0	1.0	950	$2,300	$2.42	11d	1	1.03mi
12 Putnam St Mount Vernon, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$2,600	$2.74	25d	1	1.05mi
26 W Devonia Ave Unit 1 Mt Vernon, NY	3.0	1.5	1388	$4,200	$3.03	12d	1	1.05mi
103 North St Mount Vernon, NY	1.0	1.0	720	$1,900	$2.64	21d	1	1.08mi
80 W Grand St Mount Vernon, NY	1.0	1.0	850	$1,942	$2.28	25d	1	1.09mi
645 N MacQuesten Pkwy Unit 3G Mt Vernon, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$3,195	$3.36	25d	1	1.11mi
257 S 2nd Ave Mount Vernon, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$2,250	$2.81	25d	1	1.12mi
150 S 6th Ave Unit 2 Mt Vernon, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$2,500	$3.12	18d	1	1.20mi
150 S 6th Ave Unit 2 Mt Vernon, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$2,500	$3.12	8d	1	1.20mi
14 Elm St Unit 2 Mt Vernon, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,800	$2.80	25d	1	1.25mi
10 9th St Unit 2 New Rochelle, NY	2.0	1.0	1185	$2,850	$2.41	44d	1	1.27mi
9 9th St Unit 3rd Floor New Rochelle, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$2,100	$2.80	44d	1	1.29mi
9 9th St Unit 1st Floor New Rochelle, NY	3.0	1.0	1463	$3,400	$2.32	44d	1	1.29mi
32 N Bond St Mount Vernon, NY	1.0	1.0	850	$1,900	$2.24	8d	1	1.33mi
18 N Bond St Unit 3D Mt Vernon, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$2,000	$2.67	25d	1	1.36mi
274 Lockwood Ave Unit First floor New Rochelle, NY	2.0	1.0	908	$2,700	$2.97	44d	1	1.38mi
119 S 11th Ave Unit 1 Mt Vernon, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$2,800	$4.00	11d	1	1.38mi
671 Bronx River Rd Unit 3A Yonkers, NY	2.0	1.5	950	$3,000	$3.16	25d	1	1.40mi
225 Sickles Ave Unit 1 New Rochelle, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$2,600	$3.47	44d	1	1.40mi
200 Crescent Pl Unit 2nd fl Yonkers, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$2,300	$2.88	17d	1	1.41mi
49 5th St Apt 8 New Rochelle, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$2,429	$3.04	13d	1	1.42mi
49 5th St Apt 8 New Rochelle, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$2,429	$3.04	44d	1	1.42mi
299 Webster Ave Unit 3F New Rochelle, NY	1.0	1.0	861	$2,385	$2.77	44d	1	1.48mi
119 S 13th Ave Mount Vernon, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$2,997	$3.75	13d	1	1.48mi
36 4th St Unit One New Rochelle, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,900	$3.22	5d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-02-02
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-06
   price $225,000
3. 2025-09-15
   price $235,000
4. 2025-08-14
   price $240,000
5. 2025-08-13
   listed $235,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,354
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,668
• − Management: −$2,668
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $4,368
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,048
• After-tax cash flow: $6,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Vernon School District
• NCES district ID: 3620100
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $50,890
• Composite: 36.59/100
• National rank: #4631
• State rank: #485 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mount Vernon

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #397
• US rank: #6876

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B Housing C Health & safety A User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Vernon, NY
• County: Westchester County · 709,332 people
• City population: 61,313
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 22,341
• Household income: $96,717
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 652.0

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Estonian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -393.94%
• Current HPI: 244.3166
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.04%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $235,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $240,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Listed $235,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid