3549 Mill Rd · Carson Valley, PA 16635

$68,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily · 119 Days on market

Built 1930 0.69 ac lot $58/sqft · 50% below area ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Duncansville 1 story home features large, level lot, 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, large living room, eat-in kitchen and enclosed front porch (3rd bedroom is located near enclosed porch). Large rear deck, storage shed and more! Home has no central heating system - operates on 2 space heaters. On-lot sewage system present; type and operational status are unknown. AS-IS sale, seller will make no repairs.

Key facts

• Large level lot
• Storage shed
• Enclosed front porch

Tags

• LARGE LEVEL LOT
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE REAR DECK
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hollidaysburg Area SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #129 of 539 in PA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 99 units permitted in Blair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $470 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Blair County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $61,880 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.30%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,939
• List price: $68,000
• Delta: -50.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
545 Castle Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-2%)	20mo	$55,000	$48	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $5,522
• Equity at exit: $10,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $26,290
• Equity at exit: $5,879

Cash invested: $19,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16635

• Home prices YoY: -4.0%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,994/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $698

Max offer price $68,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,000
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
259 Brown Swiss Cir Duncansville, PA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	784	$1,025	$1.31	44d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $68,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $68,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $68,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $68,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $68,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $68,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $68,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $68,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $68,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $68,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $68,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $68,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $68,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $68,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,000 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $72,000 Active 99 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    price $72,000 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Duncansville 1 story home features large, level lot, 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, large living room, eat-in kitchen and enclosed front porch (3rd bedroom is located near enclosed porch). Large rear deck, storage shed and more! Home has no central heating system - operates on 2 space heaters. On-lot sewage system present; type and operational status are unknown. AS-IS sale, seller will make no repairs.

19. 2026-04-21
    price $81,900 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Duncansville 1 story home features large, level lot, 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, large living room, eat-in kitchen and enclosed front porch (3rd bedroom is located near enclosed porch). Large rear deck, storage shed and more! Home has no central heating system - operates on 2 space heaters. On-lot sewage system present; type and operational status are unknown. AS-IS sale, seller will make no repairs.

20. 2026-03-20
    price $86,450 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Duncansville 1 story home features large, level lot, 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, large living room, eat-in kitchen and enclosed front porch (3rd bedroom is located near enclosed porch). Large rear deck, storage shed and more! Home has no central heating system - operates on 2 space heaters. On-lot sewage system present; type and operational status are unknown. AS-IS sale, seller will make no repairs.

21. 2026-02-21
    listed $91,000 Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Duncansville 1 story home features large, level lot, 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, large living room, eat-in kitchen and enclosed front porch (3rd bedroom is located near enclosed porch). Large rear deck, storage shed and more! Home has no central heating system - operates on 2 space heaters. On-lot sewage system present; type and operational status are unknown. AS-IS sale, seller will make no repairs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,994 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,994 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$1,994
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$984
• − Management: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $2,211
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$531
• After-tax cash flow: $2,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hollidaysburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4211940
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,676
• Composite: 46.1/100
• National rank: #2511
• State rank: #129 of 539 in PA

Livability — Carson Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,115

Population outlook (Blair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 121,571 people
• By 2030: 117,966 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 109,174 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 99,542 · -18.1%
• By 2075: 76,775 · -36.8%
• By 2100: 54,326 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Blair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.5) · D 27.9% · R 71.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.3pp · 2024: -43.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.5 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.4 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.69%
• Current HPI: 258.7396
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-20.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $72,000 AHARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $81,900 AHARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $86,450 AHARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $91,000 AHARMLS

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,994 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.