3505 Gateway Rd, Unit 13M · Bethel Island, CA 94511

$60,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 550 sqft · Manufactured · 115 Days on market

Built 1960 1,500 sqft lot Est $68k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to island living at its finest! Step into comfort and simplicity with this charming 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom, nicely remodeled mobile home located in the scenic Bethel Island community of Santiago Island Village. Situated at Space 13M, this cozy home offers a peaceful setting with thoughtful upgrades, including a mini split system for efficient heating and cooling year-round. Enjoy the relaxed lifestyle this waterfront community is known for, along with access to the park’s amenities, including a sparkling pool and clubhouse—perfect for unwinding or connecting with neighbors. Whether you’re looking to downsize or embrace the tranquility of island living, this inviting

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Mini split system
• 1,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• MINI SPLIT SYSTEM
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 spaces per unit
• Utilities: Community pool
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; Single story
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Built in 1960
• Exterior features: Front and back landscaping; Low maintenance yard space; Level, landscaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Refrigerator; Solid surface countertops
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating
• Interior features: Solid surface countertops; Laminate flooring; Other room(s) (total 5 rooms)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.2% vs local median 2.9% in Bethel Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,166 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Oakley Union Elementary (suburban): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #837 of 1,400 in CA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,600 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 106.84%
• DSCR: 5.75
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $67,650
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3505 Gateway Rd Unit 43E	0.04mi	1/1.0	568 (+3%)	6mo	$70,000	$123	87

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.02×
• Total profit: $101,074
• Equity at exit: $54,053

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.4%
• Equity multiple: 15.56×
• Total profit: $244,689
• Equity at exit: $116,567

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94511

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,418 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $1,069

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,065

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $60,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $60,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-02-23
    listed $70,000 Active
16. 2010-08-26
    historical
17. 2010-06-19
    listed New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$5,418
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,321
• − Management: −$2,321
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $12,951
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,108
• After-tax cash flow: $9,722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628080
• Math proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $77,903
• Composite: 34.04/100
• National rank: #10301
• State rank: #837 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bethel Island

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1166
• US rank: #25883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C- Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethel Island, CA
• City population: 2,144
• Population (ZIP): 2,144

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 6% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.77%
• Current HPI: 312.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $70,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-08-26 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-06-19 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2015): $26 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.